23 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Great setup. Rising wedge on SPX daily. Market had massive corrective rally. Complacency abounds.

[draggen33]

Great setup.

Rising wedge on SPX daily. Market had massive corrective rally.

Complacency abounds.

With all due respect, Dont you think 1000 is on table for spx until 1/16/09 opex day then the correction back to levels of 50 day moving avg . That would be a massive corrective rally . Thoughts!!

[ogm]

Anything can happen. But withthese levels of complacency and setup, I'd give downside a significantly higher chance.

[OEXCHAOS]

Complacency abounds? ABOUNDS? TSP Talk: bulls (32%) to bears (52%) FL/FS 5-day at 51%, well into Buy territory and 1% away from a "Screaming Buy". NDX put buyers abound and equity p/c still at 0.87. There may yet be too much Bullishness, but Bearishness is rising alarmingly quickly. Make sure you're looking at the most current data. I'm cautious and open to weakness here, but I'm under no illusions that there's complacent Bullishness. There's very little and they're as nervous as Madoff's auditor in the presence of the FBI. Mark

[eminimee]

If the reaction to the number this morning is anything like the usual "interest rate announcement" pattern....we should go up...fwiw UP/DOWN/UP...we shall see.. (the first move was up after the number)

Edited by Teaparty, 09 January 2009 - 08:54 AM.

[relax]

teaparty how about the reverse pattern of the previous jobs report

[IndexTrader]

910 is an important number for me on the ES, for what it's worth. If it can get above there and hold, we may be in for another attempt at the highs. Right now as I type we're flopping just above and below it. IT

[NAV]

I still beleive SPX 850 will be seen in the next 2-3 days. SPX 918-20 is the critical resistance. As long as we trade below that, sitting tight will make more money than flipping around.

[GreatWarrior]

If the reaction to the number this morning is anything ..

I know I am late in saying this, but I have reduced my long exposure in various accounts, because the WIND HAS CHANGED.

In Nov/Dec, we have rally ignoring all the bad economic news. This tells you market want to rally regardless. But since start of the new year week, the market seems to respect the bad news, i.e. bad news is bad news. Now, you are expecting the market to continue rally past the coming 1 month of on-slaught bad news?

Anyone realize there a few states unemployment hotlines were crashed this week due to 10-times increment than normal weekly claims? NY, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky .... good luck next week.

[OEXCHAOS]

910 is an important number for me on the ES, for what it's worth. If it can get above there and hold, we may be in for another attempt at the highs. Right now as I type we're flopping just above and below it.

IT

Uh, yes...nice. Died at 910.

I see chop and I don't like my edge on the short side, even as I'm open to and expecting some weakness here.

It's needed.

Mark