James, I understand your point here on democracy and the markets. My question is how can we use this situation to our advantage? Every negative economic period has some who emerge as winners, even in the midst of wholesale price destruction. Do you see the DOW going to 2,500? Do you see entire industries in utter collapse? Do you see unemployment at 20%. Defining an economic problem is just the 1st step in using it to your advantage. Project for me here and show how we can reverse engineer a winning speculative hand out of what appears to be this garbage we're being dealt.
As odd as it might seem, I am on balance long right now. There is so much money being thrown in devoted mostly to turning the financial markets around I don't see how the effort can fail in the short run. Also, I see this developing into a very inique recession. Lower income groups may end up benefiting. I am betting that the over all numbers will look bad but that indiividual suffering will be minimal. There can be possitive effects to lower prices (gas) but it is impossible to know thow the low price influence will work out. I expect to be totally short again before the year is out but I can change my mind about that.
It is no secret that I lost a fortune during 2006 and 2007 by taking my own advice. That was the third fortune that I have made and lost trading during my lifetime. Things are going so well right now that I am almost afraid that I will completely recover. I kind of like going to work every day. Being poor three times has taught me something meaningful. Becoming poor is a miserable experience but the actual state of having very little money is not that bad at all.
The point of all of this is that I really don't think any one should take my advice.
The reason I argue about things like economic policy is that if I am wrong somebody is going to make a fool out of me and I'll find the error in my reasoning. It is better to do it like that than to find out the hard way, by investing money according to a flawed method of reasoning. As it is, if most the 14 day slow stochastic get under 10 on the Russell 3000 and most of the short term sentiment indicators line up right I''ll start putting buy orders in under the market.
Otherwise I won't make any changes. Thats not advice to anyone. Thats just what I am doing.