36 replies to this topic

[TMN]

discount the expected earnings and tell me what's a fair px...
all banks are bankrupt! this is a fact!

And, if they are, then you are bankrupt too....and so are the rest of us. Nothing to lean on but what we own free and clear, and that will be worth pennies.....repeat...pennies....compared to what it was worth even at already deflated values. The cash you think you have....gone. So what good is it doing for the mega bears to hammer these points and pressure the financials. If they are right....we are all broke! Enjoy your misery.

i don't think i am bankrupt, even if all banks shut down right now... get long gold buddy and forget all the paper stuff...

[Data]

They all said the same thing about writedowns with INTC last month and CSCO in 2001. They gap up on the day of the announcement and then resume their downtrends.

[TTHQ Staff]

Just in my personal experience, when someone has to state, "That's a FACT" it usually isn't. It's an old "Kids In The Hall" skit.

[Setting: A Tree-Filled Field in the Woods]

[In the back of the shot, we see a red-haired and freckled girl.]

Girl: Wanna know something?

[Thanks to the magic of film editing, the girl runs up close to the camera in a matter of seconds along a very jerky path. She gets very close to the camera so that all we can see is her face.]

Girl: It's A Fact. The Queen of England doesn't know her ABC's anymore.

[The It's A Fact Girl ducks down out of camera shot quickly. Behind her, we see a man playing The Queen of England.]

Man : (singing) A-B-C-D-X-P-Q ...... R-X-Y-V...

[Man pauses and looks off to the side and waves royally.] Man continues: Hello! (pauses) R-P...

[Girl jumps back up into her close up.]

Girl: Sad, eh? She's old! It's A Fact.

[The It's A Fact Girl runs back into the woods, in sped up motion.]

[ogm]

Mark, thats what people thought last quarter and the quarter before that. The problem is that assets on their books keep erroding. And they have to take yet more charges over and over. What is worse, since they are all leveraged 10 to 1 if not more, every dollar they write off increases their need for capital, just to maintain solvency. Leverage is killing them. And all capital they raise just goes into black hole. They are all capital impaired and can't lend or invest a penny.

Edited by ogm, 21 January 2009 - 10:12 AM.

[IndexTrader]

Mark, thats what people thought last quarter and the quarter before that.

The problem is that assets on their books keep erroding. And they have to take yet more charges over and over.

What is worse, since they are all leveraged 10 to 1 if not more, every dollar they write off increases their need for capital, just to maintain solvency.

Leverage is killing them. And all capital they raise just goes into black hole. They are all capital impaired and can't lend or invest a penny.

Capital impaired is a good description. I also think that some of the banks, those that were playing in some of these more arcane areas, are insolvent. It's all a question of how the assets are valued. I think it is also clear that these types of banks won't write every penny off, because they can't.

Last quarter I thought it was interesting that WFC was able to avoid larger reserves for home equity lines by extending the date by 3 months at which they recognize a non performing credit line as being in a status that they have to reserve for it. This quarter they won't have that same luxury I suspect.

Many banks the earning will be horrible, but they won't be as bad as they could have been, and it won't be the end of writeoffs.

IT

[mogreen]

all banks are bankrupt! this is a fact!

you're funny.

He's from the UK...

[TMN]

Just in my personal experience, when someone has to state, "That's a FACT" it usually isn't. It's an old "Kids In The Hall" skit.

[Setting: A Tree-Filled Field in the Woods]

[In the back of the shot, we see a red-haired and freckled girl.]

Girl: Wanna know something?

[Thanks to the magic of film editing, the girl runs up close to the camera in a matter of seconds along a very jerky path. She gets very close to the camera so that all we can see is her face.]

Girl: It's A Fact. The Queen of England doesn't know her ABC's anymore.

[The It's A Fact Girl ducks down out of camera shot quickly. Behind her, we see a man playing The Queen of England.]

Man : (singing) A-B-C-D-X-P-Q ...... R-X-Y-V...

[Man pauses and looks off to the side and waves royally.] Man continues: Hello! (pauses) R-P...

[Girl jumps back up into her close up.]

Girl: Sad, eh? She's old! It's A Fact.

[The It's A Fact Girl runs back into the woods, in sped up motion.]

This type of response may make it in front of some silly US congressonal hearing but not with me my frd!

i accept that u do not have a decent answer which is fine. i have some charts as a proof but i guess you have them too!

[OEXCHAOS]

Hey, leverage always kills a bank in trouble, but you seem awfully confident that ALL are capital impaired. I'm not so sure, and I'm not so sure that the game isn't going to be changed to make them less impaired, either.

In any case, at the lows for some banks, I'm absolutely confident that many will announce "bad news" and will go up nonetheless. My post explains why.

I'm not a buyer of banks because you have to do your homework and I don't have that type of time any more. Bottom fishing a leveraged industry in trouble is not for pikers or those with divided attentions.

Mark

Mark, thats what people thought last quarter and the quarter before that.

The problem is that assets on their books keep erroding. And they have to take yet more charges over and over.

What is worse, since they are all leveraged 10 to 1 if not more, every dollar they write off increases their need for capital, just to maintain solvency.

Leverage is killing them. And all capital they raise just goes into black hole. They are all capital impaired and can't lend or invest a penny.

[OEXCHAOS]

Just in my personal experience, when someone has to state, "That's a FACT" it usually isn't. It's an old "Kids In The Hall" skit.

[Setting: A Tree-Filled Field in the Woods]

[In the back of the shot, we see a red-haired and freckled girl.]

Girl: Wanna know something?

[Thanks to the magic of film editing, the girl runs up close to the camera in a matter of seconds along a very jerky path. She gets very close to the camera so that all we can see is her face.]

Girl: It's A Fact. The Queen of England doesn't know her ABC's anymore.

[The It's A Fact Girl ducks down out of camera shot quickly. Behind her, we see a man playing The Queen of England.]

Man : (singing) A-B-C-D-X-P-Q ...... R-X-Y-V...

[Man pauses and looks off to the side and waves royally.] Man continues: Hello! (pauses) R-P...

[Girl jumps back up into her close up.]

Girl: Sad, eh? She's old! It's A Fact.

[The It's A Fact Girl runs back into the woods, in sped up motion.]

This type of response may make it in front of some silly US congressonal hearing but not with me my frd!

i accept that u do not have a decent answer which is fine. i have some charts as a proof but i guess you have them too!

You made the assertion of "fact". As such, the onus is on you.

I'd say it's an opinion, and I'd guess that it's probably not entirely correct. In fact, I am asserting that in all probability your assertion is incorrect and in any case is unprovable at this time.

[TMN]

i am starting to think that u guys are very funny! just to state it politically and gramatically correctly: IN MY VERY HONEST OPINION all banks are bancrupt!