42 replies to this topic

[tuffy88]

With the news so bad why are the bears having such a hard time taking Dow Industrials 8000 out? Time after time in the last 3 months they hit it and crash. The line at 8000 must be covered with dead bears. For the market to crater as so many here expect 8000 must first fall. Yet it is still standing after taking numerious brutal beatings. I have no idea what the stock market will do tomorow or any other day, but I would not want to bet much that the bears will take Dow 8000 out any time soon. As they used to say about a tough batter when I was playing high school and college baseball in the mid to late 1950's the Dow Industrials 8000 line is one tough out. Charles

Edited by tuffy88, 03 February 2009 - 04:30 PM.

[typicalbear]

The bears won't take it out....only selling by bulls can do that. So the question is: when will the bulls start selling again?

[pdx5]

The bears won't take it out....only selling by bulls can do that. So the question is: when will the bulls start selling again?

This LT bull is buying, not selling for 3 years or 50% profit whichever comes first.

[hiker]

for PDX - "not selling for 3 years or 50% profit whichever comes first." PDX - what price level would convince you this strategy should be abandoned, if/when the price level arrives?

[IYB]

If there really is something important happening here, it'll take many, many months to work itself out in the form af a meaningful base pattern. Meantime, what may feel like a long time now will, imho, seem like a neglible pause in the sands of time. It's a matter of perspective. Every one of those pauses and bounces seemed important at the time in 2001 and early 2002, but were, in retrospect, just the markets way of digesting its losses before resuming it's decline.http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=599.png

[unosuke]

With the news so bad why are the bears having such a hard time taking Dow Industrials 8000 out?

[pdx5]

for PDX -

"not selling for 3 years or 50% profit whichever comes first."

PDX - what price level would convince you this strategy should be abandoned, if/when the price level arrives?

If the market crashes from here, then the country is pretty much finished. I can't think of
a single asset class which can survive a depression of that magnitude. Even Treasuries will
be worthless with galloping inflation.

So, basically I expect SPX to hold 650. If it drops much below that, all bets are off.

[hiker]

thanks, pdx. I am curious what you personally think about the WEEKLY chart fact that SPX has not achieved weekly SPX closes below 805, with the very brief exceptions of the 2002 and the late 2008 weekly close lows? why is your line in the sand so far below SPX $805?

Edited by hiker, 03 February 2009 - 07:17 PM.

[pdx5]

Hiker, 650 is not my personal line of sand. It is a level which if pierced significantly signals cataclysmic events to come in the national economic health. Let's say it drops to 550. That is a bigger drop than I have witnessed in my life time and I bought my first stock in 1963. IMHO those levels portend coming depression. Do you know which assets performed well in the last depression? NOTHING except cash. But in today's environment even cash is bogus because of the gargantuan national debt and future liabilities. So, I am betting that next year economy will be more potent than it is now. The government is hell bent on spending what ever amount, printing whatever amount of money, to revive economic activity. It is like giving a high voltage jolt to a fibrillating heart. Either the patient revives or he is dead. There is really not much choice if this country is to survive economically. And I am placing my bets accordingly.

Edited by pdx5, 03 February 2009 - 08:38 PM.

[tuffy88]

pdx5, Also if we lose that bet there is no place in the world to hide that I can see. With the urban population mass we cannot go back to the kind of muddle through we did in the 1930's with enough people growing their own vegetables and hunting their own meat to get by. At least take a lot of the pressure off a faltering market economy. And I don't think barter would work any more. What do urbanites really have of any value to barter. And what is anyone going to do with gold coins or bars? So we had better hope that the Obama stimulus works. At least somewhat. A high risk bet, but what else is there? Charles PS: I did not mean to argue the bull case in my original post. My trade in QQQQ's ended today at the exact price I paid last Thuresday. And if the price low on Day 1 of rally attempt is broken I will still exit the trade. But my buy & hold indexed portfolio(representing 80% of my total portfolio) will not be changed, whatever comes next.