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HOLY JUMPN JOE HOE ZEE FEENZ TARGET 350 S&P500


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#11 hedgehawk

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 10:38 PM

I think denninger has the record with a target of 210 based on the bearish pennant.

http://market-ticker...-The-Abyss.html

"The technical target for a bearish pennant pattern is derived by subtracting the height flag pole from the eventual breakout level at point (e). "

http://chart-pattern...bearpennant.htm

I've seen other targets of 560 and 660 based on the height of the triangle and descending channel patterns that are in play. 560 would coincide with the long term support line from 1974. 660 would represent the .62 fib retracement from the 1932 lows.



Denninger makes Rubinni sound like a bull.

"If we do not get this clarity and a promise with teeth to quit changing it every 15 minutes the market will grind itself into dust, failing one support level after another as liquidity is destroyed until finally gravity takes over and we find ourselves with the S&P 500 trading at 300 and half the firms in the S&P 500 bankrupt.

I can't price one stock in the S&P 500 right now on a balance sheet analysis. This is not due to economic uncertainty - it is due to Washington DC - and until this changes in both the equity and credit markets both will continue to deteriorate and choke off any hope of recovery."

#12 pedro

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 10:39 PM

Hasn't Prechter, for all his faults, reported in one of his books that the bursting of most bubbles results .. on average .. in a decline of 80-85% off the peaks? Nicky: 40k to 7k, NAZ 5200 to 1100; Dow '32 was off 85%, etc. If so, the SPX near 240 would be an expected target. I'll go with that. Anyone care to profile what kind of world that would equate to?

#13 selecto

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 10:50 PM

:o

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#14 hedgehawk

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 10:58 PM

:o

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-15.37..............ETN's worry me.......as I think they could actually go to zero..............

#15 draggen33

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 11:00 PM

ugly eh,.......lol.....prior to every large blast off there was the ugly decline .....so ugly in fact that no thought was given to a bull market as possible..........and thats the way it was.....heading west.....in the old covered wagon........lol.....


find me a bull please.....

http://www.decisionp...90213_earn.html

Ok inverted head and shoulder !!!!!!!!!!!!
http://investing.bus....asp?symbol=SPY
Look at it , nov21 08 was the bottom IMHO!!!!!

#16 sjj

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Posted 13 February 2009 - 11:39 PM

Man oh man - I LOVE this stuff. This is exactly the kind of doom and gloom required for a good upswing. Music to my ears. I almost wish I was fully invested. I'm playing the sucker's game like everybody else - waiting/hoping for a couple months that we'll retest 741. If and when the market retest the lows, it will happen in such a way that even those "waiting" will fall prey to the fear and then revaluate and decide to wait for an even lower low. Never fails.

You can't be a beacon if your light don't shine !



#17 snorkels4

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Posted 14 February 2009 - 12:21 AM

sso is etf not etn

significant risk difference??

Exchange traded funds (ETF) and Exchange traded notes (ETN) are derivatives underlying investment assets (stocks, indexes, commodities etc.). Issuer are big investment banks.

ETF represents in fact ownership for underlying assets. Therefore especially big institutional holders could and also do asking to redeem their ETF position for underlying stocks. This makes ETF price staying closely along underlying stocks. For example this is not the case for Closed end funds - CEF.

Contrary ETN is kind of structured product issued as a debt note. And that's why credit risk is here. Of course nobody really expect Barclays' goes bankrupt :lol: . ETN are lack of tracking risk. It means that price exactly reflects underlying index. ETF can differ from NAV.

http://www.google.co...amp;btnG=Search

dxo is etn--not tracking well at all "ETN are lack of tracking risk" <_< "It means that price exactly reflects underlying index." NOT :o dxo strength with oil selloff is spooky :headspin:


i havent compared the whole universe of etf etn but these two examples go counter to thesis of article :huh:
uco is etf--tracking well "ETF can differ from NAV." NOT ;)

Edited by snorkels4, 14 February 2009 - 12:25 AM.

Andy House, Texas Man, Accidentally Drives 2006 Bugatti Veyron Into Salt Marsh

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#18 pdx5

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Posted 14 February 2009 - 12:42 AM

Hasn't Prechter, for all his faults, reported in one of his books that the bursting of most bubbles results .. on average .. in a decline of 80-85% off the peaks? Nicky: 40k to 7k, NAZ 5200 to 1100; Dow '32 was off 85%, etc.

If so, the SPX near 240 would be an expected target. I'll go with that.

Anyone care to profile what kind of world that would equate to?



For a bubble to be burst, first we need a bubble to happen. SPX at 830 is hardly a bubble.
It is more like a training bra.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#19 HoseB

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Posted 14 February 2009 - 01:28 AM

Man oh man - I LOVE this stuff. This is exactly the kind of doom and gloom required for a good upswing. Music to my ears. I almost wish I was fully invested. I'm playing the sucker's game like everybody else - waiting/hoping for a couple months that we'll retest 741. If and when the market retest the lows, it will happen in such a way that even those "waiting" will fall prey to the fear and then revaluate and decide to wait for an even lower low. Never fails.


Sure, there will be buying at 740 when/if tested...

But it's a matter of earnings and PEs... SP earnings were $46 in November (12-month trailing), will be lower after this quarter.. maybe even $30... or will hit that later in the year. 10x PE x $30 = SP of 300. Currently the PE is 20-ish... hardly cheap.

If the markets stay down, investors will get more discouraged and PEs likely to erode.

I think SP 300 is easily reasonable.. .maybe significantly lower, too.
40,000 headmen couldn't make me change my mind....

#20 pdx5

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Posted 14 February 2009 - 01:58 AM

[
But it's a matter of earnings and PEs... SP earnings were $46 in November (12-month trailing), will be lower after this quarter.. maybe even $30... or will hit that later in the year. 10x PE x $30 = SP of 300. Currently the PE is 20-ish... hardly cheap.

If the markets stay down, investors will get more discouraged and PEs likely to erode.

I think SP 300 is easily reasonable.. .maybe significantly lower, too.



I thought on a prominently TA board like this, P/E ratio based projections are a no-no?
Now you are entering the "Funnymentals" zone, my man.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule