Simplified Position Poll
Started by
U.F.O.
, Apr 03 2004 02:08 PM
23 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 03 April 2004 - 02:08 PM
I've always believed that the true barometer of sentiment is not what one thinks, but what one does. The other position polls offer too many choices to suit me, sometimes not offering a good choice for where I'm at, at that time, and in addition inject opinion alongside the actual position choices. This poll is just a test to see how closely the results match Monday's opinion poll. Thanks if you participate.
U.F.O.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#2
Posted 03 April 2004 - 02:34 PM
Good idea UFO, I being trading mostly gold/silver stocks but I did had a small tech long position from 2 weeks ago. I sold it early this week and I been 'barking' s/t pullback since. So it's some difference when I'm flat but barking for possible s/t pullback. maybe i should mute myself since my s/t indicators are still on buy signal (let it do the barking.)
#3
Posted 03 April 2004 - 02:41 PM
Hey stockbucks. I probably should have specified the stock market(s) on the poll, but figured everyone would get the drift. I've always been curious, if you don't mind me asking, where do you live?
U.F.O.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#4
Posted 03 April 2004 - 02:45 PM
I like this better, maybe expand it to include various markets? I agree with you, it's not what you think but how you are positioned
Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
#5
Posted 03 April 2004 - 03:14 PM
I'm a Nasdaq tech stocks trader but started trading gold/silvers stocks the past 2 years. And the past +6 months mostly trading gold/silver stocks because both my indicators and my luck have been quite successful trading them.
I live in a house.
I'm in the Daly City surburb of San Francisco.
#6
Posted 03 April 2004 - 05:33 PM
Im flat since friday morning but am looking to reposition this coming week.
#7
Posted 03 April 2004 - 07:05 PM
Early comparisons.
The biggest difference so far is the significantly smaller percentage of traders actually short than are bearish for Monday.
Are You Currently Net: Actual Positions/Not Opinions
Long [ 26 ] [55.32%]
Flat [ 11 ] [23.40%]
Short [ 10 ] [21.28%]
Total Votes: 47
What is your position for Monday? Opinions
Bull [ 39 ] [49.37%]
Neutral [ 14 ] [17.72%]
Bear [ 26 ] [32.91%]
Total Votes: 79
As the test poll still has a far smaller population at this time, prudence would dictate waiting before trying to extrapolate anything useful.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#8
Posted 04 April 2004 - 11:01 AM
Also, when you post the poll can be a factor.
I've noticed that the results have shifted hugely after the first 2 hours if I post right at 4:00.
I've not been able to determine anything useful other than the importance of consistency.
M
I've noticed that the results have shifted hugely after the first 2 hours if I post right at 4:00.
I've not been able to determine anything useful other than the importance of consistency.
M
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
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#9
Posted 04 April 2004 - 12:19 PM
Mark, here's what I'm thinking on this so far.
Market Opinion for Monday
What is your position for Monday?
Bull [ 42 ] [48.84%]
Neutral [ 17 ] [19.77%]
Bear [ 27 ] [31.40%]
Total Votes: 86
Simplified Position Poll, No Opinions, Just the Bottom Line
Are You Currently Net:
Long [ 45 ] [60.00%]
Flat [ 17 ] [22.67%]
Short [ 13 ] [17.33%]
Total Votes: 75
Nervous longs, pure and simple. Most of the difference in these two polls comes down to voters long the market who are voting Bear in the Opinion poll. That equates to about 13% of the total population.
We've talked many times before on this board about what sentiment "should" look like going into a market top. This isn't it. Market tops display exuberance, not fencesitting behavior.
Anyway, I thought this might be an interesting comparison to the Opinion poll and wasn't disappointed. Thanks to all who voted.
U.F.O.
Market Opinion for Monday
What is your position for Monday?
Bull [ 42 ] [48.84%]
Neutral [ 17 ] [19.77%]
Bear [ 27 ] [31.40%]
Total Votes: 86
Simplified Position Poll, No Opinions, Just the Bottom Line
Are You Currently Net:
Long [ 45 ] [60.00%]
Flat [ 17 ] [22.67%]
Short [ 13 ] [17.33%]
Total Votes: 75
Nervous longs, pure and simple. Most of the difference in these two polls comes down to voters long the market who are voting Bear in the Opinion poll. That equates to about 13% of the total population.
We've talked many times before on this board about what sentiment "should" look like going into a market top. This isn't it. Market tops display exuberance, not fencesitting behavior.
Anyway, I thought this might be an interesting comparison to the Opinion poll and wasn't disappointed. Thanks to all who voted.
U.F.O.
"Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote!"
~Benjamin Franklin~
~Benjamin Franklin~
#10
Posted 04 April 2004 - 02:18 PM
UFO et. al.,
One thught on the difference, besides not all the same people voting, is that you might not act on how you feel about the next day. For example, I tend to trade days or weeks, not intraday or daily. So, even though I might think the market will go down tomorrow, and I am long, I won't necessarily sell. Reason is that if I am bullish on next week or more, if I sell I am faced with the decision and timing to get back in. And either/both decisions could be wrong, and I lose money, even though I am right on my market call for the next week. Personally, I am not that good of a trader (at least not yet).
TM