Edited by SilentOne, 02 April 2009 - 08:53 AM.
Crude Oil Hurst Cycles
Started by
SilentOne
, Mar 01 2009 09:27 PM
85 replies to this topic
#31
SilentOne
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Posted 02 April 2009 - 08:46 AM
Typical. Too early in some positions and I got shook out on stuff. Sold my USO calls this morning as well as all remaining oil positions to be be flat this sector. Not good trading. The cycle low came on cue, but a bit late. Live and learn. Off to Mexico next week and after that will give the markets a good break.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#32
inamosa
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Posted 03 April 2009 - 06:40 PM
Enjoy the trip John
Thanks for all your updates
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
#33
SilentOne
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Posted 21 April 2009 - 10:14 AM
A 14 day cycle low is approaching for crude. The cycles have actually turned bearish for the short term. It looks as if we have a left translated high for the 56 day cycle. So an important low is likely for crude by the 3rd week of May. A 14 day low probably arrives after the inventories report tomorrow. Price is testing the bottom of an obvious channel. I'll be buying for a bounce and short term trade. Bought a small position this am and will add tomorrow if crude is still testing the lower channel.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#34
mss
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I'M WATCHING
Posted 21 April 2009 - 10:52 AM
Thanks for the update. Do you have a cycle chart for Nat. Gas ?
Scott
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!
#35
SilentOne
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Posted 21 April 2009 - 11:16 AM
hey Scott,
I have looked at natgas briefly, but I have not been able to define the cycles at work. One of the problems is that natgas has not had one significant bounce since last summer, so it is very hard to pinpoint some of the larger cycles. I can safely say though that the larger cycles have not bottomed yet. 
I'll have to get back to you when I learn something new.
cheers,
john
I'll have to get back to you when I learn something new.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#36
SilentOne
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Posted 23 April 2009 - 08:30 AM
Will be out at the open for small profit. Short term trade only. Looking for a 14, 28 and 56 day low in mid-May timeframe.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#37
SilentOne
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Posted 27 April 2009 - 01:46 PM
Crude still looks the same as when I last looked at it. It is stuck within a down channel and the cycles are bearish. Price is now in its 5th day off the last 14 day cycle low. Another test of the top of the channel is alway possible, but I will not even watch. If Friday was the high for this cycle, crude should head lower for the next 9 - 10 trading days. Thus one of the reasons why I am very cautious on the markets overall here.
cheers,
john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#38
Darryl
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Posted 27 April 2009 - 03:02 PM
John,
Any chance you could post a few words on the S&P Hurst cycles? Your oil Hurst analysis has been terrific!
Thanks,
Darryl
#39
SilentOne
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Posted 18 May 2009 - 09:20 AM
I missed the rally of late April. I have not been following the markets very closely of late, but I did see crude break out of the price channel I had last drawn. So the low of April 21 was in fact a good buy at that 14 day cycle low. We just had another 14 day cycle low come in here as crude touched near $60. No trade long for me here until the next 14 day low. Seasonals are kicking in as well and so far crude has tracked it quite well this year. So a buy some time in June? We'll see.
I not 100% certain on the phasing of the larger cycles like the 56 day cycle. I will have to take a long look at it next month.
cheers,
john
P.S. And just as pure speculation, that price pattern may work for a lot of things this year besides oil ... like equities.
I not 100% certain on the phasing of the larger cycles like the 56 day cycle. I will have to take a long look at it next month.
cheers,
john
P.S. And just as pure speculation, that price pattern may work for a lot of things this year besides oil ... like equities.
Edited by SilentOne, 18 May 2009 - 09:25 AM.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain
#40
BWTrader
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Posted 04 June 2009 - 10:52 PM
Maybe that pullback into early April accounted for the normal May pullback. That's possible, but I no longer have much confidence in normal seasonality. Seems they use the seasonally bullish periods now to sell and seasonally weak periods to buy.
Thanks for sharing.
BW
Thanks for sharing.
BW
I missed the rally of late April. I have not been following the markets very closely of late, but I did see crude break out of the price channel I had last drawn. So the low of April 21 was in fact a good buy at that 14 day cycle low. We just had another 14 day cycle low come in here as crude touched near $60. No trade long for me here until the next 14 day low. Seasonals are kicking in as well and so far crude has tracked it quite well this year. So a buy some time in June? We'll see.
I not 100% certain on the phasing of the larger cycles like the 56 day cycle. I will have to take a long look at it next month.
cheers,
john
P.S. And just as pure speculation, that price pattern may work for a lot of things this year besides oil ... like equities.
