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Crude Oil Hurst Cycles


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#71 denmo83

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Posted 18 August 2009 - 09:31 PM

Outstanding work John!

#72 SilentOne

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Posted 19 August 2009 - 09:47 AM

Thanks den. I took the trade here as crude is pressing against the highs near $73. Out of USL at 38.59. Should have played USO the nearer term contract ETF. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#73 SilentOne

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Posted 31 August 2009 - 12:09 PM

There is a good chance that crude has topped in its current 56 day cycle. We have already seen a trendline break for the current 56 day cycle (11 weeks) suggesting the top is in for this particular cycle. A break below the last 28 day low at 36.45 would be further confirmation. The current 28 day FLD targets is about 35. And the 56 day FLD was well undershot which further supports a weak trend. USL here is in its 11th day off the last 14 day low. A long trade may work later this week, but would be a bounce to be traded as the better buy should be the next 56 day low around mid-Sept. No trades for me here until we see 14 day lows. cheers, john crude_Aug_31_2009_14_day_cycles_on.png

Edited by SilentOne, 31 August 2009 - 12:18 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#74 denmo83

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Posted 01 September 2009 - 01:04 PM

Hi John! Do you feel the SPX and oil are in sync? Both seem to be in 12th day of 14 day cycle. Bounce coming Thursday? What are you thinking? We aren't getting any divergences yet on this pullback.

#75 SilentOne

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Posted 01 September 2009 - 01:24 PM

hi denmo, Yes, that's my thinking. The 2.5 week cycles for the $SPX have been running an average 13 days, so a low tomorrow or Thursday would fit with a 14 day low in crude. But it will be a mere bounce for crude as the 56 day cycle is due mid-Sept. And the $SPX is due for a 10 week low mid-Sept. as well. I'll be looking for the oil trade after the inventories report tomorrow or Thursday. Note that the 14 day cycle for crude may now run a little longer (as it is later in the larger cycles) and could go 15 days into Friday. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2009 - 01:26 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#76 SilentOne

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Posted 02 September 2009 - 10:07 AM

Went long a partial positon in USL this morning at avg. $36.20. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#77 denmo83

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Posted 02 September 2009 - 01:23 PM

Hi John, Why USL vs. USO? I recall you saying something about it, but I can't remember. Inventories were non-factor.

#78 denmo83

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Posted 02 September 2009 - 01:35 PM

Long partial USO @ 35.22

#79 SilentOne

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Posted 02 September 2009 - 01:52 PM

denmo, USL is based on a 12 month rolling contract. USO is strictly the near term month. Rollover starts early in the month so it can play havoc with USO. This is strictly a ST trade. Crude is testing a trendline today from the winter lows. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 September 2009 - 01:54 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#80 SilentOne

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Posted 03 September 2009 - 10:23 AM

I've exited the USL trade for a slight loss here. I'm afraid they are going to set the 14 day cycle low with a gap down in crude tomorrow. Seems like the same setup as June 19 when a trendline was broken there. Also there is risk here as USL did not meet its 56 day (11 week) FLD target near 43 for this cycle, which suggests the sum of the cycles is down in this timeframe. I am sure crude will be a good catch at the next 14 day low due mid-Sept. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 September 2009 - 10:24 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain