Jump to content



Photo

Crude Oil Hurst Cycles


  • Please log in to reply
85 replies to this topic

#81 denmo83

denmo83

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 289 posts

Posted 03 September 2009 - 11:03 AM

Long partial USO @ 35.22


Out at 35.30

Thanks for your insites John!

#82 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 24 September 2009 - 12:57 PM

Crude is approaching an 11 week low. The trendline break though confirms that the 45 week cycle has topped. So a bounce should materialize here in the coming days. Long a partial position at $34. Playing a bounce for a ST trade. Tricky trade as trendline breaks can be difficult. cheers, john crude_Sept.24_2009_14_day_cycles_on.png crude_14_28_56_MAs.png
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#83 inamosa

inamosa

    Patterns-based Trader and Investor in ETFs and Futures

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,638 posts

Posted 26 September 2009 - 08:16 AM

John, I'm also looking for a bounce here in oil from right here. If it materializes, $69 is R1 and $71-72 is R2.

Attached Thumbnails

  • 9_26_2009___crude.png

"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#84 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 28 September 2009 - 10:34 AM

hi Aly, Your price and time targets might work there. The 11 week low is in IMO. Added some HOU.TO Friday and this morning. It won't be an inpulsive rise, but corrective. Worth a shot for a trade. The next proper buy after this 11 week cycle tops will be in Dec. most likely at the coming 44/45 week low. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 28 September 2009 - 10:35 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#85 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 29 September 2009 - 10:57 AM

I'm out of the USO long position. The bounce is too weak for a good 11 week low and too many things can go wrong with this trade given the current state of the general market (ie. its topping). I'll wait for the better buy in Dec. this year for a 22 and 44/45 week nest of lows. The longer term lows should arrive late in 2010. The better trades will be short positions at various points in time, but I will pass. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#86 SilentOne

SilentOne

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 3,452 posts

Posted 05 October 2009 - 07:04 AM

The 11 week cycle low came on cue within a day or two. The more reliable buy comes in Dec. at the 22/23 and 44/45 week nest of lows. Thank you Charles Nenner, er I mean john. My work is not infallible either, but it helps me plan my trades.

http://www.traders-t...howtopic=111616

Today on Bloomberg "Taking Stock" Nenner said, based on his cycles research:

1. that he was out of the market 9/29/09 and expected the market down into Oct 2009,
2. then some recovery in November 2009 to year end 2009 (trading rally, not for investment),
3.Longer run he said the market will retrace to March 2009 low (SP 600-700), or lower.
4. He is bullish on commodities; the low on gold cycle is 20 Oct to March 2010, crude is a buy Mid December for a long term rally into 2010.
5.Bonds in general are favorable for the next 6-9 months.


cheers,

john

crudeOct_5_200911weekon.png

Edited by SilentOne, 05 October 2009 - 07:08 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain