5 replies to this topic

[Porter]

My view on the longer term EW cycles is that Supercycle (III) began in 1942.
That was the year the United States decided to take world hegemony.

Cycle I lasted from 1942 to 1968.
Cycle II from 1968 to 1982.
Cycle III from 1982 to 2000.

We are currently in Cycle IV.
I expect this wave to be a Flat.
As such Wave A of the Flat occurred from March 2000 to October 2002.

I am struck by the similarity of the current decline and rally with that of 1929.
After 1929 the market declined 34 months, rallied two months, then had a deep retracement of that rally before the next cyclical bull market began.
After 2000 the market declined 31 months, rallied two months, then had a deep retracement of that rally into March 2003 before the cyclical bull market began.

I foresee the current rally unfolding in a 5 wave pattern which will be Intermediate (A) of Primary [B].
If Hadik's cycles are correct this cycle should end about April 2005.

As I see it the five wave pattern of Intermediate (A) is unfolding as follows:

Minor 1 October 2002 to December 2002
Minor 2 December 2002 to March 2003
Minor 3 March 2002 ongoing

Within Minor 3 I also see a five wave pattern unfolding.

Minute [i] March 2003 to June 2003.
Minute [ii] June 2003 to August 2003
Minute [iii] August 2003 to March 2004
Minute [iv] March 2004

Because Minute [ii] was a W pattern, I expect Minute [iv] to be a sharp V shaped pattern. That is I expect the next retracement of the rally to be less than 50%.
Thus I expect the 3/29 gap at 1106/SPM not to be filled this quarter.

Porter

[DrWu]

Hi Porter, Thanks for your most excellent EWave analysis. What time relationships do you look for between 2-waves and 4-waves? I am interested in the time expectation for minute iv.;...thanks!

[Porter]

What time relationships do you look for between 2-waves and 4-waves?

I think the principle of alternation works for time as well as price.

If wave 2 was a long time, wave 4 should be short in time.
If wave 2 was a short time, wave 4 should take a long time.

Porter

[DrWu]

thanks Porter!!

[Echo]

Thanks Porter. If the next retracement is less than 50%, then we should have a higher low in place and be more confident that Minute [v] has started, right? Echo

[Porter]

Thanks Porter. If the next retracement is less than 50%, then we should have a higher low in place and be more confident that Minute [v] has started, right?

Yes.

This line change up has all the power you could hope for.

Now we have to wait for a swing low.
That will determine whether the rally was like that of October to December 2002 or like the rally after March 2003.

It is still possible that IT is right about a base having to form.
But I doubt it.
IMO the quarterly low was formed on April 1.

Porter