22 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

Larry T
Thank you for sharing your work. Your tables showing the 1st quarter and March low between 665 to 671 was absolutely fantastic. Would it be right to say the breadth study has dcreased the odds of seeing the yearly down cycle low of 473 and further price apreciation above 857 would decrease those odds further, while a close above 878 cancels it altogether??

If you have follwed my posts this week you would know I see this as a wave four flat correction. The SP-500 has three target windows for the wave four top. 792-826, 924-947 and if it gets real crazy a 1.618 wave to 995. That is a typical wave pattern. That may require many months to play out. Then wave five down begins, the killer wave that finishes off investors for a full generation just like it did the last 72 year low. Until I see something different that is my favored pattern for this bear market...opps not a bear market just a minor scracth for the bull market that started in 1776.

Edited by LarryT, 03 April 2009 - 11:08 AM.

[LarryT]

yeah, what about all the folks who were reading the repeated posts about spx 500 or spx 300 and are short or out. what should they do? are they supposed to sit tight and hope/plan for a 50% retrace?

Those are wave five targets Dan, we are in wave four, wave five starts later this year. You don't really think the market is going up without a normal correction do you? Look at the 1974 chart, we are dropping into the first sell off from the first high then higher like 1974.

[Spectacular Bid]

Thanks Larry. I have followed your posts. I'm just a little slow. My mother used to say to me "how many times do I have to tell you the same thing!!"

[LarryT]

Thanks Larry.
I have followed your posts. I'm just a little slow. My mother used to say to me "how many times do I have to tell you the same thing!!"

Hehehe, my Mother used to say, "you couldn't pour Pee out of a boot if the directions were on the heel"

[IndexTrader]

Larry T
Thank you for sharing your work. Your tables showing the 1st quarter and March low between 665 to 671 was absolutely fantastic. Would it be right to say the breadth study has dcreased the odds of seeing the yearly down cycle low of 473 and further price apreciation above 857 would decrease those odds further, while a close above 878 cancels it altogether??

If you have follwed my posts this week you would know I see this as a wave four flat correction. The SP-500 has three target windows for the wave four top. 792-826, 924-947 and if it gets real crazy a 1.618 wave to 995. That is a typical wave pattern. That may require many months to play out. Then wave five down begins, the killer wave that finishes off investors for a full generation just like it did the last 72 year low. Until I see something different that is my favored pattern for this bear market...opps not a bear market just a minor scracth for the bull market that started in 1776.

I get that you see this as a wave 4 correction. However, if I understood your partner's study, moves above 857 and 878 seem at odds with your wave study....at least in the manner that you presented it.

The part that puzzles me is this part:

Major difference between a bottom and a low during a recession cycle. My partner that does market breadth analysis and the presidential cycle analysis recently did an analysis of recession cycle bottoms and false lows. Based on his analysis of 22 recession cycles the Dow must advance 31.82% to bottom a recession cycle. Once an advance has achieved a 25.8% odds are very high a bottom will occur as that is the median advance for a bottom. Any advance less than 25.8% is a false bottom or simply just a low and lower lows will be seen.

You refer to "bottom a recession cycle", evidently given certain breadth action, and subsequent price movement. Again, the way it's phrased here it sounds as if the partner would then call the bottom in. Whereas you evidently seem to feel it is only in temporarily. Could you amplify?

IT

[LarryT]

Larry T
Thank you for sharing your work. Your tables showing the 1st quarter and March low between 665 to 671 was absolutely fantastic. Would it be right to say the breadth study has dcreased the odds of seeing the yearly down cycle low of 473 and further price apreciation above 857 would decrease those odds further, while a close above 878 cancels it altogether??

If you have follwed my posts this week you would know I see this as a wave four flat correction. The SP-500 has three target windows for the wave four top. 792-826, 924-947 and if it gets real crazy a 1.618 wave to 995. That is a typical wave pattern. That may require many months to play out. Then wave five down begins, the killer wave that finishes off investors for a full generation just like it did the last 72 year low. Until I see something different that is my favored pattern for this bear market...opps not a bear market just a minor scracth for the bull market that started in 1776.

I get that you see this as a wave 4 correction. However, if I understood your partner's study, moves above 857 and 878 seem at odds with your wave study....at least in the manner that you presented it.

The part that puzzles me is this part:

Major difference between a bottom and a low during a recession cycle. My partner that does market breadth analysis and the presidential cycle analysis recently did an analysis of recession cycle bottoms and false lows. Based on his analysis of 22 recession cycles the Dow must advance 31.82% to bottom a recession cycle. Once an advance has achieved a 25.8% odds are very high a bottom will occur as that is the median advance for a bottom. Any advance less than 25.8% is a false bottom or simply just a low and lower lows will be seen.

You refer to "bottom a recession cycle", evidently given certain breadth action, and subsequent price movement. Again, the way it's phrased here it sounds as if the partner would then call the bottom in. Whereas you evidently seem to feel it is only in temporarily. Could you amplify?

IT

Few notes, first we do not have a solid recession bottom until we close a day above 31.82% based on analysis of 22 recession cycles. Now for a "WHAT IF", what if this is not a typical recession? What if it is a 72 year depression cycle? See a 1928 to 1930 chart, a sharp bounce occurred then lower lows into 1932. The same thing can happen here. We could see an advance to 1000 and still drop to below 500 in 2011-2012.

For now it is worth taking long position risk from the analysis I have presented with an 80% level stop.

Best,
Larry

[Woody]

Some good LT stuff there, if this IS the bottom - then I feel bad for all those people who just recently emptied out the 401k and shunned the market. Its a real shame.

In terms of ST, according to what you are saying - seems like 850-860 comes first then the retrace down into the mid 700s?

That is correct, as of todays wave pattern that is the best odds.

Larry, appreciate your work..........what happens if we hit Chief's target of 917 with a blip at 870?

CW

I believe Da Chief allows for a drop to 760 so we are in basic agreement. We could top ths wave in the 860s, drop to 760-740 then up toward 938-998 no problem.

I think Chief sees this as wave 1 of a new Bull (of course he always does) instead of a wave 4 in the Bear.........what price action would change your count or disqualify his? (great job btw of patiently replying to many questions)

CW

[LarryT]

Some good LT stuff there, if this IS the bottom - then I feel bad for all those people who just recently emptied out the 401k and shunned the market. Its a real shame.

In terms of ST, according to what you are saying - seems like 850-860 comes first then the retrace down into the mid 700s?

That is correct, as of todays wave pattern that is the best odds.

Larry, appreciate your work..........what happens if we hit Chief's target of 917 with a blip at 870?

CW

I believe Da Chief allows for a drop to 760 so we are in basic agreement. We could top ths wave in the 860s, drop to 760-740 then up toward 938-998 no problem.

I think Chief sees this as wave 1 of a new Bull (of course he always does) instead of a wave 4 in the Bear.........what price action would change your count or disqualify his? (great job btw of patiently replying to many questions)

CW

Right, W-1 of a new excuse me, continuing bull market. I would have to change if this wave tops, drops 50-62% THEN extends beyond the 1.618 at 995. If we got that then the drop in 2011-2012 would be a higher low than 2009 low at 666. Wave four of this wave at 830-780 would be where we buy again if that happens. Da Chief would only be wrong if we top below the 31% target and drop to new lows

Edited by LarryT, 03 April 2009 - 01:01 PM.

[humble1]

larry: i am not sure i disagree, but that wave4 could be a doozy. what is your absolute MAX allowablei n Price (and Time, too, if you do that) for a wave4 high? TIA and regards ... H1

[Woody]

Some good LT stuff there, if this IS the bottom - then I feel bad for all those people who just recently emptied out the 401k and shunned the market. Its a real shame.

In terms of ST, according to what you are saying - seems like 850-860 comes first then the retrace down into the mid 700s?

That is correct, as of todays wave pattern that is the best odds.

Larry, appreciate your work..........what happens if we hit Chief's target of 917 with a blip at 870?

CW

I believe Da Chief allows for a drop to 760 so we are in basic agreement. We could top ths wave in the 860s, drop to 760-740 then up toward 938-998 no problem.

I think Chief sees this as wave 1 of a new Bull (of course he always does) instead of a wave 4 in the Bear.........what price action would change your count or disqualify his? (great job btw of patiently replying to many questions)

CW

Right, W-1 of a new excuse me, continuing bull market. I would have to change if this wave tops, drops 50-62% THEN extends beyond the 1.618 at 995. If we got that then the drop in 2011-2012 would be a higher low than 2009 low at 666. Wave four of this wave at 830-780 would be where we buy again if that happens. Da Chief would only be wrong if we top below the 31% target and drop to new lows

Thanks Larry, great thread, keep us posted.

CW