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did you miss this big news from the bond pits today?


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#11 TMN

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:25 AM

Forgive my liberal use of letters; There is no F'n way the FED can hold down prices on the long end by merely buying long bonds w/ QE money. The market is too big. The best they can do is
shake out some weak shorts. We are entering a bear market for treasuries and I don't think it is actually all that bearish for stocks until we have the 10 year trading above 6% (then of course
all hell breaks loose).



i sign that one!

#12 humble1

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:27 AM

russ: the MBA's you are talking about walked away with millions. LOL: not so smart, eh? ;) p.s. stay away from the talk radio; it is going to break many people.

Edited by humble1, 11 May 2009 - 11:28 AM.


#13 arbman

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:39 AM

We are entering a bear market for treasuries and I don't think it is actually all that bearish for stocks until we have the 10 year trading above 6% (then of course all hell breaks loose).


Wow 6%! In my calculations it is actually 5.25% or so. BTW, I think the rates are headed well above 10% at some point. We are entering into a period where even finding money for the gov't will be a problem, of course they will solve their problem with inflation, which will be our problem...

#14 jjc

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:46 AM

We are entering a bear market for treasuries and I don't think it is actually all that bearish for stocks until we have the 10 year trading above 6% (then of course all hell breaks loose).


Wow 6%! In my calculations it is actually 5.25% or so. BTW, I think the rates are headed well above 10% at some point. We are entering into a period where even finding money for the gov't will be a problem, of course they will solve their problem with inflation, which will be our problem...



I would rather error on the bullish end for stocks while they are printing money and trashing the USD.

#15 humble1

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:46 AM

arbman: we have waaay too many houses, waaay too many cars, waaaay too many manufactured goods, waaaay too much stuff. productivity is still increasing rapidly; innovation is everywhere; new seed genetics are sky rocketing farm yields. inflation is from too few goods ... how is that going to suddenly happen?

#16 Russ

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:46 AM

russ:

the MBA's you are talking about walked away with millions.

LOL: not so smart, eh?

;)

p.s. stay away from the talk radio; it is going to break many people.



your other buddy da_cheif used to go onto the same radio show regularily but has not been on for a long time (perhaps it had something to do with him calling the host Michael Campbell - Glen Campbell, to which he countered by calling da_cheif Donny, or maybe its because timer's digest took da_cheif off of its list. It is the top rated show all across canada and they get all the top analysts out there.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#17 arbman

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:58 AM

arbman:

we have waaay too many houses, waaay too many cars, waaaay too many manufactured goods, waaaay too much stuff. productivity is still increasing rapidly; innovation is everywhere; new seed genetics are sky rocketing farm yields.

inflation is from too few goods ... how is that going to suddenly happen?


It will happen exactly however we got to the March lows, too much leverage without the supporting fundamentals. It will happen again, but from lower levels than 2007 highs, but higher levels than here, the damage in this economy may be repaired on the way up, if the leverage is kept under control, I am not a perma-bear. I am only reporting what I see and all I see is a central bank promoting more and more leverage at the moment...

See, the markets and the economy are loosely correlated until they do. Everyone might do still just fine until they don't, you think you know it won't flip, I don't. This is almost not a question of economics, but more like a question of ideology, I am amazed the crap the media fed to the people and how the people so far appear to be OK paying up two generations of tax dollars to a few bankers until they won't... This is just insane.

#18 humble1

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 12:28 PM

arbman: do you think the public would rather have a depression, lose even more jobs, have even more foreclosures? our sovereign debt is much lower, %GDP, than it was after ww2 when we had all of europe to rebuild. this is a piece of cake, especially considering the Innovation Wave in progress. i respectfully suggest you read some of the futurists, such as the tofflers, who put in perspective that the computer and software revolution is just a facilitator for the next wave of human development.

Edited by humble1, 11 May 2009 - 12:29 PM.


#19 Russ

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 12:32 PM

arbman:

do you think the public would rather have a depression, lose even more jobs, have even more foreclosures? our sovereign debt is much lower, %GDP, than it was after ww2 when we had all of europe to rebuild.

this is a piece of cake, especially considering the Innovation Wave in progress. i respectfully suggest you read some of the futurists, such as the tofflers, who put in perspective that the computer and software revolution is just a facilitator for the next wave of human development.



Average household debt had doubled since the 1980's.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#20 arbman

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 01:27 PM

arbman:

do you think the public would rather have a depression, lose even more jobs, have even more foreclosures? our sovereign debt is much lower, %GDP, than it was after ww2 when we had all of europe to rebuild.

this is a piece of cake, especially considering the Innovation Wave in progress. i respectfully suggest you read some of the futurists, such as the tofflers, who put in perspective that the computer and software revolution is just a facilitator for the next wave of human development.


Of course, this is not the end of the civilization, we are only trading here. Why don't we stop fantasizing and actually put together some numbers about how much of a capital and development would be needed for a new bull market and whether it would be still feasible in terms of additional national debt with the potentially soaring commodity prices?

Just sit down and do this, come back with the wide ranges. All I see here is the debt + stimulus cannot be easily financed at the current trend of the Treasury yields. I thought earlier that it could've been, but that glimmer of hope is slowly fading at this point. We are simply headed for an inflationary blow off and then more deflation in my view...

The past is a very good guide for the future and I don't believe we will be doing exponentially better over the next 3-5 years since this economy is still tying to carry forward the excesses and mistakes of the last secular bull market, of course we cannot destroy everything, but the bad debt will be still weighting on the economy and that it may just break it one more time, if the inflationary pressure increases...

It is all about inflation from here, or availability of cheap money. Keep your eyes on the long term rates.