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bears: if this really was the start of a bull market what would be different?


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#11 Cirrus

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 05:49 PM

bears: if this really WAS the start of a bull market what would be different?

Price would be ABOVE (not below as now) the 13 month MA which in turn would be RISING (not falling as now). Regards, D

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1980-01-28&i=p39183268817&a=149688849&r=1551.png



That's where your 7 sentinnels pay of. In this case the indexes are so far below the 13 month ema that should we see a u shaped recovery and a cyclical bull one would miss 1/3 to half of it IMO. This decline was truly monumental. I think most are looking for some sort of major retrace down at minimum...me included. The thing is, the market is going up. I'm still buying more longs in individual equities with nice charts and doing some shorting and put buying on the side (insurance is getting cheaper with delining volatility).

Count me as one whe thinks a declining VIX is mildly bullish longer term...not to mention LIBOR.

#12 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 05:50 PM

Week by Week we would would see increased volume during the rise. Indices should be over the 200-day MA in a Bull Market..... This has not happened yet... So as a current bear I would hope to see improved signs in unemployment P/E ratios that are reasonable. < 25.... Currently unemployment seen is not getting better. I do not see the market continuing to go higher on weakening fundamentals. In a way it is a chicken and the egg. Higher markets can drive better economic situation, and thus support higher prices. I currently don't see this working yet.... Best Regards, Barry

#13 arbman

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 06:39 PM

bears: if this really WAS the start of a bull market what would be different?


Rates would remain low several months into the rally, we are having the rates race higher ahead of the equities. In other words, this is an inflationary repricing, not growth and unless the growth emerges, you will most likely see the whole house of cards retrace the gains back down again.

Hopefully, we will have an higher low though and it will prove that the reflation actually worked out to contain the damage, Fed would make a grave mistake by overinflating like they did during the 2006-2007 rally since they cannot land the market at a higher plateau, it only means the markets will snap with even greater force to the downside...

You can measure this...

#14 pdx5

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 06:40 PM

That's where your 7 sentinnels pay of. In this case the indexes are so far below the 13 month ema that should we see a u shaped recovery and a cyclical bull one would miss 1/3 to half of it IMO.


Very intelligent diagnosis & prognostication. If one waits for the index to cross above 13 month,
one has missed a huge part of the advance. Like missing 37% advance from March lows.
Also it is mathematically impossible for the slope of any moving average not to show inflexion
after a 37% advance. It is difficult to see that 13 MA line because of the scale.

Edited by pdx5, 19 May 2009 - 06:41 PM.

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#15 Slothrop

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 06:49 PM

"Large Nasdaq price moves on weak volume" -- Quantifiable Edge

#16 trioderob

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 06:50 PM

bears: if this really WAS the start of a bull market what would be different?


Rates would remain low several months into the rally, we are having the rates race higher ahead of the equities. In other words, this is an inflationary repricing, not growth and unless the growth emerges, you will most likely see the whole house of cards retrace the gains back down again.

Hopefully, we will have an higher low though and it will prove that the reflation actually worked out to contain the damage, Fed would make a grave mistake by overinflating like they did during the 2006-2007 rally since they cannot land the market at a higher plateau, it only means the markets will snap with even greater force to the downside...

You can measure this...



So would you say that the fed is now determind to hit the 200 ma ?

#17 da_cheif

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 07:07 PM

Larry T detailed why we are still in a bear market, because each rally went back down below the previous highs, bull market rallies don't do that.



larry t hassa bad habit...... :lol:

#18 arbman

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 07:58 PM

bears: if this really WAS the start of a bull market what would be different?


Rates would remain low several months into the rally, we are having the rates race higher ahead of the equities. In other words, this is an inflationary repricing, not growth and unless the growth emerges, you will most likely see the whole house of cards retrace the gains back down again.

Hopefully, we will have an higher low though and it will prove that the reflation actually worked out to contain the damage, Fed would make a grave mistake by overinflating like they did during the 2006-2007 rally since they cannot land the market at a higher plateau, it only means the markets will snap with even greater force to the downside...

You can measure this...



So would you say that the fed is now determind to hit the 200 ma ?


I said I was expecting higher a few times until early June, I guess you missed them.

I think the market will spike higher and unlock a ton of crash supply waiting from the higher prices as soon as it spikes higher, there is no fundamental basis to land higher than 900 so early, the market already started to fall apart internally, we are getting there. The supply will overwhelm the market and then it will sell down again around late June, potentially much lower than 800. For now I am waiting for the rates to spike and the supply to unlock, until then it advances with less and less internal strength...

#19 da_cheif

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 08:05 PM

bears: if this really WAS the start of a bull market what would be different?


Rates would remain low several months into the rally, we are having the rates race higher ahead of the equities. In other words, this is an inflationary repricing, not growth and unless the growth emerges, you will most likely see the whole house of cards retrace the gains back down again.

Hopefully, we will have an higher low though and it will prove that the reflation actually worked out to contain the damage, Fed would make a grave mistake by overinflating like they did during the 2006-2007 rally since they cannot land the market at a higher plateau, it only means the markets will snap with even greater force to the downside...

You can measure this...



So would you say that the fed is now determind to hit the 200 ma ?


I said I was expecting higher a few times until early June, I guess you missed them.


I think the market will spike higher and unlock a ton of crash supply waiting from the higher prices as soon as it spikes higher, there is no fundamental basis to land higher than 900 so early, the market already started to fall apart internally, we are getting there. The supply will overwhelm the market and then it will sell down again around late June, potentially much lower than 800. For now I am waiting for the rates to spike and the supply to unlock, until then it advances with less and less internal strength...





>there is no fundamental basis<......there never is......till mucho higher prices........then we hear........"Oh I see"..... :)

Edited by da_cheif, 19 May 2009 - 08:07 PM.


#20 IYB

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Posted 19 May 2009 - 08:07 PM

IYB-Simple, elequent, and proven-love the way you work!
Money-Frontrunning is something you may want to weed out of your trading style-the rewards are small compared to the total gain available-and on the other hand-the punishment can be severe.

Thanks Spooky. I think several here missed or are choosing to ignor your very important point. :o Why not wait to talk about "the bull market" until we are above a rising 13 month (or 50 week, or 200 day) moving average, rather than speculate on the HOPE that this will eventually happen this time. In 2003, all you had to do was wait about 5-6 weeks off of the March 12 bottom, and you had your bull market confirmation.....and 4 1/2 years of clear sailing ahead. Doesn't that make more sense than guessing and hoping, now ---- with REAL MONEY??

If you are so certain that this is a bull market that you would risk your hard earned money on that premise, then surely you won't have long to wait 'til you get the confirmation of which I speak. Come back and have this discussion then. ;) {As Ross Perot used to say}"I'll be all ears." :lol:
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds