Additionally, on the post of Oct 7, 2003 I noted a statistical tick situation.
Another note that may be insignificant but is of interest to me. The NYSE tick recorded two consecutive closes above 1000. My own personal records indicate that the last time this happened was April 22, 1999 and April 23, 1999. Statistically it may be just an anomaly and mean nothing. April 22, the DJIA closed at 10727.18 and then closed down on April 23 at 10689.67 which is not similar to now. The DJIA did slowly climb higher thereafter to more significant resistance at the 11000 level. The market environment however was very different at the time since it was a bull market so I do not find the April 1999 period significant for comparison.
There has been another date which was fairly close. On Jan 2, 2002 the NYSE tick closed just below 1000 and then closed above 1000 the next day on Jan 3, 2002. January 2, 2002 the DJIA closed at 10073.40 and then closed at 10172.14 on January 3, 2002 which might more closesly compare to today. The DJIA topped at 10259.74 on January 4th and then embarked on a decline over 5% over the next 8 trading days.
It has been a stubborn market. Bearish breadth divergences remain leaving open the potential for some sort of decline. Though no sell signal has yet been generated, the chart below now shows the various oscillators have turned down.
Moving stops up at this point for conservative traders would be prudent so therefore I am moving the stop to the most recent minor swing low of 9675 (Oct 13 low).
Please remember these figures are basis cash so futures figures would have to be adjusted accordingly.
Regards,
