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Investors Intelligence Advisory Sentiment


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#1 IYB

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 04:14 AM


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Exactly the flip side of prevailing sentiment the week of March 9, 2009, the Intermediate Term Low when the AAII bearish reading reached an all time record 70% bearish. Sentiment is echoing what the internals are saying....and that is that the IT trend has topped. Here's a particularly revealing look at the advance/decline-volume structure (a very key internal) as of today. Price follows internals like night follows day. Internals are heading downward. If I had a way of making this important point in stronger terms, I would. :o Seriously. Price will follow....JMHO, of course. ;) Good Weekend, D



Edited by IYB, 06 June 2009 - 04:16 AM.

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#2 CLK

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 07:09 AM

IYB, I agree with you on the divergence. If this is now a bull market then a mild correction instead of crash though. If the market goes sideways here for another month the divergence won't work, if higher, I think we need a break higher in NYMO to signal a top is near. As long as NYMO stays inside the range the market can keep going up. (2 charts) nymo_topping_pattern.png nymo_topping_pattern_2.png

#3 Tor

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 07:31 AM

Hi Don, Hope all is well. I too noticed that bull/bear ratio, the difficulty with any oscillator based indicator, is knowing what the range is. For example, take the period up to 2007, the ratio was higher than today. How do you work with that? Appreciate all your posts Don!
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#4 nimblebear

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 08:02 AM

also, anyone know what AAII looked like after a similar rally recovery point in 03 ?
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#5 MoneyFriend

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 09:21 AM

Nimble, I don't have the ratio itself (looking), but this points out a huge difference.
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Looks like there are just more bearish votes in general past 3/4 years.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 09:31 AM.


#6 MoneyFriend

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 09:39 AM

Here's what the II ratio looked like back then.
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#7 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 11:15 AM

FWIW, I don't like to see big spikes in the % of Bulls in either AAII or II. That said, it's only a short-term Signal. We're a long way away from a good sentiment set up for a major top.

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#8 Cirrus

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 12:04 PM

also, anyone know what AAII looked like after a similar rally recovery point in 03 ?


Sentimentrader's AAII Bull Ratio (4wk avg) goes back to 1988. That indicators shows that AAII is too bearish (bullish for market given the rally). Looking back through 1988 The current reading is below (AAII ratio favoring AAII bears) over 75% or so of all readings back to 1988.

The ratio is around .5 right now and was around .75 in Jun of 2003. It actually pinged a record high of .84 in Dec 2003 after the initial bull run ran its course.

#9 Russ

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 12:05 PM

FWIW, I don't like to see big spikes in the % of Bulls in either AAII or II. That said, it's only a short-term Signal.

We're a long way away from a good sentiment set up for a major top.



I acknowledge you are the sentiment guru and you no doubt have good reasons for your position, I don't understand why you don't think that IYB's Investor Intelligence data is not significant though, as it is the highest since 2007, that seems pretty long term to me.

Edited by Russ, 06 June 2009 - 12:06 PM.

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#10 Cirrus

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Posted 06 June 2009 - 12:15 PM

Frankly, I interpret IYB's II chart mildly bullish. For goodness sakes, we've had a near 50% rally in the SP 500! IYB's post shows bullish sentiment about where it was at the bottom of some of the bull market corrections in the previous bull market (04 and 05). I'm not 'arguing' for a bull market here. I'm just saying the maket has and is going up. What else is there to say? People here, for the most part, have been recondiitioned by the previous nasty bear market and recent news backdrop. It's a case of people seeing what they want to see and believing what they want to believe. KISS, the market has been and is going up. Monday may be the start of a new bear trend, who knows? Right now TA is saying the trend is up. Isn't this a TA board?