39 replies to this topic

[Russ]

XMI index on right (largest 20 blue chips) showing major resistance with NYMO kiss-back and Dow showing waning momentum. Sentiment wise... Da_Cheif and H1 have disappeared.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=indu&compidx=aaaaa:0&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=65536&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&size=3&state=8&sid=1643&style=320&time=8&freq=1&comp=NO_SYMBOL_CHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=9517&mocktick=1.png

Edited by Russ, 06 June 2009 - 10:57 AM.

[MoneyFriend]

"It's done... stick a fork in it"
No offense but I've been hearing this every week for the last 2.5 months, what makes this time so different from all those other times? I'm failing to see any new major bearish developments, only the same stuff that wasn't working 2 months ago.

I don't see any resistance up above until the 10,000's.
http://bigcharts.mar...mocktick=1;.png

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 11:16 AM.

[Russ]

Well MF, if you don't see any resistance on the xmi chart you and I have strong differences in what is important. I also noticed you posted an elliot wave interpretation of the spx that it had hit the top of the 5th wave quite awhile back from now, what happened to that? I don't see the predictive value of your volume bars.

Edited by Russ, 06 June 2009 - 11:23 AM.

[MoneyFriend]

IWV, is major market enough for me.

Already made a higher high, I don't see higher highs in bear markets, looking back 70 years or so.

http://bigcharts.mar...mocktick=1;.png

[MoneyFriend]

I also noticed you posted an elliot wave interpretation of the spx that it had hit the top of the 5th wave quite awhile back from now, what happened to that?

I don't use e-wave, I suck at it and frankly don't find it very useful, I think someone asked, "what wave are we in?" and I wrote back, "5?".
I was wrong, I admit when I'm wrong.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 11:25 AM.

[Russ]

I also noticed you posted an elliot wave interpretation of the spx that it had hit the top of the 5th wave quite awhile back from now, what happened to that?

I don't use e-wave, I suck at it and frankly don't find it very useful, I think someone asked, "what wave are we in?" and I wrote back, "5?".
I was wrong, I admit when I'm wrong.

Ok, we are all wrong sometimes, of course I think you are wrong now.

[MoneyFriend]

Ok, we are all wrong sometimes, of course I think you are wrong now.

And that's fine. I just honestly would like to know what you think is so different about this time compared to the bearish findings you had last month. I respect your opinion yaknow, even if I'm bullish atm.

[Russ]

Ok, we are all wrong sometimes, of course I think you are wrong now.

And that's fine. I just honestly would like to know what you think is so different about this time compared to the bearish findings you had last month. I respect your opinion yaknow, even if I'm bullish atm.

The internal divergences are strong now, look at how the nymo has broken down, also look at IYB's indicators which have gone to a sell now, IYB has a very strong track record with these. If the XMI breaks above the trendline it has hit, you will be right. The Canadian dollar is also reversing now, that is tied in closely with commoditities. As gannglobal.com has documented in their recent videos, the 'dna' of past markets (looking back hundreds of years) similar to now indicates that a correction is most probable. The stats are highly against the market going higher now before a correction in their view, even though they think we have entered a new bull market longer term, but history shows that a test of the lows is most likely now, so in my view the coming test will be critical as to whether the economy move up from here or not, it the March lows are broken then more trouble will follow obviously.

[spielchekr]

There's more volume up there than you think.

[MoneyFriend]

The internal divergences are strong now, look at how the nymo has broken down, also look at IYB's indicators which have gone to a sell now, IYB has a very strong track record with these. If the XMI breaks above the trendline it has hit, you will be right. The Canadian dollar is also reversing now, that is tied in closely with commoditities. As gannglobal.com has documented in their recent videos, the 'dna' of past markets (looking back hundreds of years) similar to now indicates that a correction is most probable. The stats are highly against the market going higher now before a correction in their view, even though they think we have entered a new bull market longer term, but history shows that a test of the lows is most likely now, so in my view the coming test will be critical as to whether the economy move up from here or not, it the March lows are broken then more trouble will follow obviously.

The nymo was diverging through almost all of 03 as well. I respect IYB's system and it has done well since I've been reading FF, but do not know if it has been reliable at the start of a new bull, not sure what it would have acted like in '03 for instance. I think gann global is wrong, IWV just made a higher high, taking out the Jan 7th pivot high, that severely cuts the chances of a large pull back. Higher and higher pivot highs are what define a bull market imo. Looking at the Dow's monthly means all the way back to 1928, in each instance where those means declined > 40% from their all time high and then price went on to make a higher high (taking out the last monthly mean pivot high), each one of these instance is followed by significantly higher prices and no major pullback for many months to come . Dow is on the verge, XMI even closer. IWV, SPX, NDX already have done so. If the dow just hangs around > 8620 all this month it will have also fulfilled the higher high requirement.

Higher highs are bullish.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 06 June 2009 - 01:12 PM.