36 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm going to say, that's interesting. Thanks for posting that.

It's nothing near a bull. My 34 years of trading for a living tells me the disappointment will be all yours, my friend. But I've always said the best lessons are learned when you lose money, so I'm sure it will help you somewhere down the road.

what does this chart say to you?

[OEXCHAOS]

There's a bit of nastiness in this thread, which is odd. Actually, the vehemence may be a heads up. I leave it to you as individuals to make that determination. I will say that Roger has it right. To most of us as traders, whether this is a Bull Market rally or a Bear Market rally is pretty irrelevant. If you were short for more than a trade since March, you're hurting. Me, I am agnostic. The fundamental case for continued Bear is certainly clear and obvious...thus it's utterly irrelevant. No, worse, it's a potential hook to lose you money by making you take your eye off the ball. IMO, one ought to view a Bull or Bear market as merely a CONDITION, if you're measuring it objectively. That condition can change and it's not particularly predictive of the long term price of stocks. It can change on you right when you're leaning hard if you're betting on a certain price scenario based upon it being a Bull or Bear market. That's not a fun way to trade. Now, one way I measure the Bull/Bear status of the market is via a 50 wk EMA. Right now, the the 50-week EMA on the NDX is below the market and rising. Thus, you should be trading the NDX like a Bull. Is it leading the S&P? Do you need to be that smart? I might suggest that folks de-emphasize being right about the big picture and focus on making money on the small picture. The big picture will take care of itself. Mark

[IndexTrader]

These types of thread almost invariably end up being predictive. When a whole string of posters proves without doubt that the original poster is wrong, this may have almost 100% chance of success. As an aside Byron Wien says 1000 is a "chip shot", 1100 could be easily doable, 1200 not out of the question. 1200 by the way would be equivalent to what the 1975 market did over the course of 1 year. I don't think he said whether it was a bull market though. IT

[thespookyone]

Mark-I trade both ways, could care less if it's bull or bear. Was just noting what my experience tells me, and I doubt trading for a living for 34 years without going belly up was an accident. More to the point, it DOES matter if it is bull or bear trading- wise, in one salient way-STRUCTURE. Bear markets have a different structure than Bulls, and having an idea which you are probably in can help on exits and entry-whether short or long. This structure screams bear in my book, and I have used that info to help refine my entrys and exits. As for buy and hold in either direction in this market, I think it's silly if you have the stuff to disect the chop-many times more profitable. TRADERS make money-bulls and bears pontificate=I want the $$$$$$, the pontificators can have the "glory" WHEN thay are right. As far as "the chart", I must be too simple-I don't see so much as a possible back kiss there, and I hate to frontrun-it can be "kinda" painfull.

Edited by thespookyone, 19 June 2009 - 11:11 AM.

[mss]

You may be correct, but I was looking for a "tad" higher, 985-1003. I have a chart of $VXO suggesting that we do have a top in place. Note it has a double top.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$ONE:$VXO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p82675472712&a=159907575&r=960.png

In addition we have this posted:

This chart suggests that although the SPX has made a rather large advance price wise, the RSI and the 3,13,1 MACD momentum indicator, have not made the same relative move. This suggest that a consolidation back to 875 is likely and might even go to the dashed blue TL. (810/800)
To say we are in a new bull market is premature, as we are in a bear market rally still. The momentum MACD should reach the "0" line or at least close to it, maybe -15 before a bull market returns.

Here is another look at what might be occurring. 8,34,1 MACD has crossed the "0" line, indicating a positive tend.

This chart suggest the current levels of price advancement (985-1003) and areas of resistance (1003). Although decline/retracement is suggested(875) OR (810/800),

mss

[milbank]

Mark-I trade both ways, could care less if it's bull or bear. .....Bear markets have a different structure than Bulls, and having an idea which you are probably in can help on exits and entry-whether short or long. This structure screams bear in my book, and I have used that info to help refine my entrys and exits. As for buy and hold in either direction in this market, I think it's silly if you have the stuff to disect the chop-many times more profitable.

TRADERS make money-bulls and bears pontificate=I want the $$$$$$, the pontificators can have the "glory" WHEN thay are right....

Seconded. Well articulated spooky.

[da_cheif]

$$$$$$$$$........rite on.....big time O N O