Last week i posted about the bond buy signal on this board, which i called the deflation trade. 10-year yields should hit 2.4% which should be coincident with the 9 month cycle bottom in the equities sometime in late July to early Aug. I doubt we will break the Dec 08 bottom this year in the 10 year yields, keeping the inflationary boom hopes alive thru end of 2009, before we hit the deflationary doom in 2010. It's pretty much unavoidable !
Deflationary doom !
Started by
NAV
, Jun 30 2009 11:49 AM
37 replies to this topic
#2
IndexTrader
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:07 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
#3
TMN
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:13 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
printing has to be put in relation to default expectations and actual defaults. thanks to the gov and the fed, we have been postponing the inevitable...
except for banks everyone is running against the debt clock, simple as that.
over time we will see where "salvation" will come from. don't expect it to be the same cast that got us into the mess. it never is..
#4
NAV
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:13 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
We are already in a deflation. The entire planet is deflating. India's deflation was spectacular - inflation dropped from 14.5% to -0.5% in about a year, despite record pumping, printing, interest rate cuts et al. Now it's just a question of whether it will be a depression or not.
#5
Cirrus
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:19 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
We are already in a deflation. The entire planet is deflating. India's deflation was spectacular - inflation dropped from 14.5% to -0.5% in about a year, despite record pumping, printing, interest rate cuts et al. Now it's just a question of whether it will be a depression or not.
What's your time frame....12 months? I can look back over just about every time frame that starts before mid 2007 and show inflation of varying degrees. We are standing in front of a deflationary tree in an inflationary forest.
Agree that deflation is possible but unlkely.
#7
IndexTrader
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:22 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
We are already in a deflation. The entire planet is deflating. India's deflation was spectacular - inflation dropped from 14.5% to -0.5% in about a year, despite record pumping, printing, interest rate cuts et al. Now it's just a question of whether it will be a depression or not.
I assumed we were talking about the future. Over the course of the next few years you will see inflation. If anything, it will be a repeat of the 70s...stagflation. I also assumed from your post that when you recommend buy US T bonds, you're talking about the US economy. In any event, that's what I'm referring to, not India.
IT
#8
NAV
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:23 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
We are already in a deflation. The entire planet is deflating. India's deflation was spectacular - inflation dropped from 14.5% to -0.5% in about a year, despite record pumping, printing, interest rate cuts et al. Now it's just a question of whether it will be a depression or not.
What's your time frame....12 months? I can look back over just about every time frame that starts before mid 2007 and show inflation of varying degrees. We are standing in front of a deflationary tree in an inflationary forest.
Agree that deflation is possible but unlkely.
Like i said, we are already in a deflation, which is getting ready to intensify over the coming months. The bear market rally in bond yields is over IMHO.
#9
nimblebear
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Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:24 PM
sold my tlt at its recent hi and bot TBT near its low today. sorry bud, but im fading your call for now.Last week i posted about the bond buy signal on this board, which i called the deflation trade. 10-year yields should hit 2.4% which should be coincident with the 9 month cycle bottom in the equities sometime in late July to early Aug. I doubt we will break the Dec 08 bottom this year in the 10 year yields, keeping the inflationary boom hopes alive thru end of 2009, before we hit the deflationary doom in 2010. It's pretty much unavoidable !
OTIS.
#10
NAV
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Posted 30 June 2009 - 12:25 PM
Hard to believe that with all this money being thrown at the economy that deflation is the result. Anything is possible, but I don't give that much of a chance. In fact, if there's even a further hint of it, I expect to see more pumping, more printing.
IT
We are already in a deflation. The entire planet is deflating. India's deflation was spectacular - inflation dropped from 14.5% to -0.5% in about a year, despite record pumping, printing, interest rate cuts et al. Now it's just a question of whether it will be a depression or not.
I assumed we were talking about the future. Over the course of the next few years you will see inflation. If anything, it will be a repeat of the 70s...stagflation. I also assumed from your post that when you recommend buy US T bonds, you're talking about the US economy. In any event, that's what I'm referring to, not India.
IT
Yes i was talking about the U.S T-Bonds and i was referring to the future trends in deflation which should gather steam in the coming months. India was just an example of how dramatic things turned out there.
Edited by NAV, 30 June 2009 - 12:26 PM.
