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#21 thespookyone

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 04:47 PM

Tea-I'd like to say for the record-I'll be the least surprised of anyone if you turn out to be right, LOL.

#22 Slothrop

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:00 PM

SPX wave 1 down is complete. Wave 2 probably makes it back to 912, outside chance of 925. Then, the wave 3 takes it much further down into the low 800's. That's the highest probability count. So, yeah, you could say a low is in or about to be put in -- but I wouldn't call it historic, it's likely not even an i/t low.

#23 IYB

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:00 PM

Tea-I'd like to say for the record-I'll be the least surprised of anyone if you turn out to be right, LOL.

I'd like to say for the record that I'd be the most surprised of anyone. Not because I don't respect Teaparty. In fact, on the contrary, I think he's one of the very best market technicians around. Just happen to come to polar opposite conclusion from my own work at this particular juncture. While I'm essentially 100% cash at the moment, I'll be starting to reload short position from the get-go on the rally which, I, too, expect. I think by Monday, latest, we're heading back down. According to my work we are in an unmistakable IT decline.... just fwiw. :) D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#24 inamosa

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:06 PM

Don, we are agreement, including the bit about Teaparty being a great technician
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#25 Woody

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:12 PM

Don, we are agreement, including the bit about Teaparty being a great technician



I will also echo those sentiments......looking at the charts, interesting that XLE closed up $0.01 even though crude lost $2.72 and its MCO now sporting a pos div so will watch energy tomorrow for a possible st bottom

#26 isaac613

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:13 PM

Don, we are agreement, including the bit about Teaparty being a great technician

I have to agree with IWM, While there will be a rally, the highest I see it going is 900, but I also predicted earlier that everyone or most would start getting bullish at these areas. THe highest I see this rally going is about 900 to 910. THen Swoosh down to 850. Of course we could rally again back to about 870 after that. We will be going down, it may take a few months but we will be at the lows soon enough. Making a new high here would not be productive but would be wall street like. I don't see it in the cards though. ********* willing it does not happen. Good evening.

#27 Russ

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:16 PM

GE is very likely going to test that huge up candle from march - which on the daily has a big gap, I am with IYB I can't see new highs from here.
http://stockcharts.c...1060&r=3540.png

Edited by Russ, 08 July 2009 - 05:20 PM.

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#28 zoropb

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:21 PM

Tea-I'd like to say for the record-I'll be the least surprised of anyone if you turn out to be right, LOL.

I'd like to say for the record that I'd be the most surprised of anyone. Not because I don't respect Teaparty. In fact, on the contrary, I think he's one of the very best market technicians around. Just happen to come to polar opposite conclusion from my own work at this particular juncture. While I'm essentially 100% cash at the moment, I'll be starting to reload short position from the get-go on the rally which, I, too, expect. I think by Monday, latest, we're heading back down. According to my work we are in an unmistakable IT decline.... just fwiw. :) D

I got to agree with you Don. T your in top ten here in my opinion but best case... happy camper, delusional, near the summit of Mount Hoperest scenario is 928-930 area for me at this point. Oh would that be a gift. I would be impressed if SPX cracked 905 very impressed if it cracked 916 and mega happy if it gets to 928 to short the ..it out of it again.
Other than my opinion and I may be wrong... keep up the great work super T I appreciate it.

Z

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#29 Woody

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:27 PM

Tea-I'd like to say for the record-I'll be the least surprised of anyone if you turn out to be right, LOL.

I'd like to say for the record that I'd be the most surprised of anyone. Not because I don't respect Teaparty. In fact, on the contrary, I think he's one of the very best market technicians around. Just happen to come to polar opposite conclusion from my own work at this particular juncture. While I'm essentially 100% cash at the moment, I'll be starting to reload short position from the get-go on the rally which, I, too, expect. I think by Monday, latest, we're heading back down. According to my work we are in an unmistakable IT decline.... just fwiw. :) D

I got to agree with you Don. T your in top ten here in my opinion but best case... happy camper, delusional, near the summit of Mount Hoperest scenario is 928-930 area for me at this point. Oh would that be a gift. I would be impressed if SPX cracked 905 very impressed if it cracked 916 and mega happy if it gets to 928 to short the ..it out of it again.
Other than my opinion and I may be wrong... keep up the great work super T I appreciate it.

Z



I think any rally gets stopped by either 50 ema or 20 ema and that range is 900 to 908 right now.......

#30 IndexTrader

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Posted 08 July 2009 - 05:28 PM

We have classic bottoming action here...so classic that we may make a new high....target 960 before dropping profusely...
What I would love to see is Globex action making another low in the 860/62 area...with cash making a higher low in the morning...but that might be too wet of a dream.....cash has either put in it's low......or will need another low. If we need another low in cash....I'd be watching OEX 407/408 for a very strong reversal..A gap up tomorrow shouldn't be sold. ...it will be a gap that won't ever be filled ...within the next 4 weeks...


Hi Tea
I'm thinking it's all possible,..and to add to any classic bottoming pattern I think we need to see a FUGLY Gap Down Open.. and we may get it tomorrow. ;)

Best Regards,


My take on this is that the first push down here is a false breakdown. See my post from this AM.

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry468421

I too would like to see an ugly gap below today's low. I don't know if we can get this tomorrow or not.

The move up will be interesting...depending on how it unfolds I could see a new high as well. Might not go that far, but we'll see on all that. I like the potential from down here.

IT