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THE BIG PICTURE


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#1 mss

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Posted 09 July 2009 - 08:19 AM

:)

My original forecast of 985 - 1003 now appears to be unreachable before a major correction takes hold. UNLESS--- :D

Day traders are having fun and frustration, depending on which side they take. What those of us who do not day trade but have a different time frame for trading need to keep in mind is the overall big picture.
We have had a major, IMO, rejection of the Bullish bounce in a Bear market on the weekly charts. The WHITE arrows point this out and a comparison with '02.

YES, there will be more up bounces but for the time being the overall trend has become very weak and should be respected until a noticeable change takes place in price and momentum indicators breach the suggested horizontal lines to the up side.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=10&mn=11&dy=30&i=p96489937162&a=160557033&r=1095.png

mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#2 SilentOne

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Posted 09 July 2009 - 09:14 AM

hi Scott, Thanks for that great chart. I still hold the view that this bear rally is very similar in cycle terms to the one seen in late 2001. We rallied hard and we've seen an initial top. At some point soon the $SPX will find its 20 week low and then rally to retest the high. It may or may not reach a new high. I'm not bothered either way as it should then lead to a new downleg into a Dec. low (40 week low). From there we setup 2010 which should be very interesting and filled with opportunities. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 Rogerdodger

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Posted 09 July 2009 - 12:44 PM

Hi Scott.
Your long term charts are always informative.
Do you still have the one you posted during the War of 1812?
Posted Image
:P

A pullback to near 800 would set up a nice inverted H&S similar to 2002.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 09 July 2009 - 12:48 PM.


#4 mss

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Posted 03 August 2009 - 02:34 PM

:) And the horz. lines have been breached and I expect a test of them in the future. 1003ish might turn into the famed 1040-1050 area first.
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!