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#11 zoropb

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 10:33 AM

IT

He said he stopped with a 4 loss and reshorted 903 premarket.... I think he covered on the first drop in the premarket and just shorted again....

yeah actually it was -4.5 when it went down last night to 893s ..I said down or out and it triggered the 896.50 stop I left before hitting the bed.... and sold the Goldman happy camper pop 903.50


Probably stays up till close hour who knows

Z

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#12 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 10:48 AM

I have a target of 922.00 for SPX... Here are my thoughts... if something changes in the present volume patterns I will adjust, but for now:
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#13 zoropb

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:18 AM

I have a target of 922.00 for SPX... Here are my thoughts... if something changes in the present volume patterns I will adjust, but for now:

Semi if it does break down here then I think you got a shot at it early next week 906-916 SPX

Z

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#14 SemiBizz

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:24 AM

Here's the problem I have with a break down here... Since we made the volume low on 7/8 we tried to test that low on lighter volume twice... We ended up with HIGHER LOWS. (same applies to Nasdaq) That doesn't look to me like it wants to test that low... Simple eh? :lol: I noted that we had no problems breaking high volume candle highs on lighter volume... and were able to make a series of higher highs. So no question about it, if we did fail here, it will show up in the volume patterns. Then we'd be back to trying to break that 7/8 low. I'm completely open minded, if they can prove they can take it lower, step right up. To me this has very little to do with chart shapes... This is a leg by leg struggle, minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day. I just measure the strength of the moves and compare them to know who is winning. <_<

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 July 2009 - 11:27 AM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#15 skott

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:28 AM

any shorts concerned that we had a 90% up day Monday? I am

#16 NAV

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:33 AM

any shorts concerned that we had a 90% up day Monday? I am


How are you dealing with your concern ? What action are you taking ?

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#17 skott

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:42 AM

will probably cover today. today is more probable to be a weak day. going forward the results are positive

#18 skott

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:53 AM

this is a particular setup I'm concerned about. we had a 90% down day and then s&P traded at a 2 month low and now we had a 90% up day. only 3 times has this been negative going forwarded. 2 of those times were in the 1940's the other was in feb of this year. So you can hang your hat on that if you want to be a positive thinking bear. the market was down almost 10% a week later after the feb occurrence but most of the time the market was higher.

#19 NAV

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 11:55 AM

this is a particular setup I'm concerned about. we had a 90% down day and then s&P traded at a 2 month low and now we had a 90% up day. only 3 times has this been negative going forwarded. 2 of those times were in the 1940's the other was in feb of this year. So you can hang your hat on that if you want to be a positive thinking bear. the market was down almost 10% a week later after the feb occurrence but most of the time the market was higher.


So are you going long based on those statistics ?

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#20 skott

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Posted 14 July 2009 - 12:01 PM

there were 11 such occurrences since the 1940's 7 times the market was positive a week later. 4 times it was negative. In a testament to how wild it's been the last 10 months we have had 4 such setups in the last 10 months. 1 week later the returns were -1.8%, +6.9%, -9.9%(feb 2009) and + 8.1% (March 2009)