33 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

A few things I wanted to add... the dollar contract I refer to is the Sept and we got the test of 79.20 at 79.285 not sure if it is over but here we are. Been trading it since yesterday =+.27 so far and went long again 79.31 break even on the stop here. I will keep trying as long as it is above the 78 low. The other is oil over 60 is not good for recovery as it detracts from consumer spending which as you all know =70% of economy. So a higher dollar here or a dollar in the 79-83 range is in the interest of recovery also. You all saw how housing stopped on a dime the moment we hit the higher 5% interest rates for real estate and the Gov knows it. Not saying we go straight down or anything we can bounce up here for a bit. Z

[IndexTrader]

You really have to question whether what is beneficial to the government or the economy is what the markets end up doing. I think that type of conclusion is a real stretch. IT

[zoropb]

You really have to question whether what is beneficial to the government or the economy is what the markets end up doing. I think that type of conclusion is a real stretch.

IT

The economy is what I am saying IT no housing sales re-fis commercial RE too and you got no economy. It is what allowed the last party from 2002. We will know in 2-3 weeks where the priority is. I am patient.


Z

[hitoya]

I agree with IT too. Over the years, I have observed that IYB's analysis and SS have been reliable in picking up the bottom. However, timing for top is just so so. If I remember right, 2003 bottom was correctly forecasted by IYB. 2009 bottom was correctly forecasted too. But 2007 top was missed by about one year. Although I trade individual stocks most of time, I have spent majority of my time analyzing why I was wrong. If IYB could do some analysis why he was wrong about this rally from internal standpoint, it may be beneficial to the group.

The weight of the evidence says we have NOT, repeat NOT set up the internals for an advance.

When a day like today occurs that triggers all 7 of seven sentinels positive, most of the time, because the market has not done it's work in setting up the internals for an advance, that event is a "false positive" and marks a ST TOP. When that occurs, I treat it as a ST top and get fully short. That, again, occurs when there has been no divergent set up, as right now.

The other perhaps 20% of those 7 of 7 events mark a real SS Buy Signal. THAT occurs when all 7 of seven go to a buy position after a true divergent set up - like on March 12, 2009 for example. When that occurs I treat it as a REAL Seven Sentinels Buy Signal, issue an announcement, mark it on the chart and get fully long. That is NOT the case here.

CONCLUSION: This is a bull trap - a ST trading top. The correct position currently is SHORT. JMHO, of course.

We could well be in the early stages of that set up process, as todays internal strength was truly impressive. Time will tell. Right or wrong, I just wanted to make my view of today as clear as possible. Good Trading, D

First, let me say that I, as everyone else, appreciate your work here.

I would just point out that perhaps you have over-optimized your indicators via this requirement for such substantial divergence in what may well have been a brief consolidation period.

Certainly if you are right this market should reverse immediately and now plunge through the neckline. And while I'm flat at the moment, I certainly don't see that at this point in the hourly charts. Looking at the daily chart at this time would lead me to believe that after some corrective type action, we should take the highs out.

Either way, I respect your work, and appreciate all the effort. And as I say, I'll be the first to try to capitalize on the short side if the charts start to look that way. For the moment they do look overextended, but that doesn't necessarily lead to anything more than corrective action.

By the way, I found it interesting that better than 50% of the pollees tonight are expecting the market to go down, and are positioned that way. This following a very strong day.

IT

Couldn't have said it better myself. Don, thanks for keeping everyone up to date with the sentinels. I'm not flat but my longs are not 'beta' trades....they are longer term positions with their own stops. Should this thing tip its hand and start down I'll be shorting. Most internal stuff I follow WRT divergences is neutral right now.