33 replies to this topic

[denleo]

Don, You probably saw my post below in reply to Marketneutral's thoughts. I said: and now comes the hardest part, called thinking. What you did is exactly that. Thought it through and explained it well (even if you (and I) will turn out to be wrong). Excellent analysis. Thank you. Denleo

[IYB]

Thanks for the analysis Don, the SS are being whiplashed badly and many things that used to work simply are failing. I dont know if this is a harbinger or just the most intense rally since 1929.

Are you fully short now, based on your signature it seems like your positions have been reduced.

Fully short. I've been trading much more actively lately, so the sig line just shows my core position. I keep it in place all the time, but trade around it based on short term signals. Best, D

[nimblebear]

Thank you IYB. Very good work. And I would say that even if I wasn't short.

[IYB]

Just beautiful to watch. Grown men with billions of dollars in their accounts, all the computing power, highest level of education and strong analytical skills pushing the BUY button all at the same time.
Denleo

So true. Thanks Dennis

[Rogerdodger]

Thanks for sharing your experience and thoughts. I'm becoming more and more conspiratorial and feel like we are being played by GS et al. So I'm open to anything, especially if the majority don't expect it.

[risk_management]

The talent on this board is outstanding. All I can say is thank you. BTW, today reminds me so much of 09/19/2008.

[dcengr]

The talent on this board is outstanding. All I can say is thank you.

BTW, today reminds me so much of 09/19/2008.

Wow thank you for reminding me.. this is also sort of like LEH too..

CIT to belly up

[IndexTrader]

The weight of the evidence says we have NOT, repeat NOT set up the internals for an advance.

When a day like today occurs that triggers all 7 of seven sentinels positive, most of the time, because the market has not done it's work in setting up the internals for an advance, that event is a "false positive" and marks a ST TOP. When that occurs, I treat it as a ST top and get fully short. That, again, occurs when there has been no divergent set up, as right now.

The other perhaps 20% of those 7 of 7 events mark a real SS Buy Signal. THAT occurs when all 7 of seven go to a buy position after a true divergent set up - like on March 12, 2009 for example. When that occurs I treat it as a REAL Seven Sentinels Buy Signal, issue an announcement, mark it on the chart and get fully long. That is NOT the case here.

CONCLUSION: This is a bull trap - a ST trading top. The correct position currently is SHORT. JMHO, of course.

We could well be in the early stages of that set up process, as todays internal strength was truly impressive. Time will tell. Right or wrong, I just wanted to make my view of today as clear as possible. Good Trading, D

First, let me say that I, as everyone else, appreciate your work here.

I would just point out that perhaps you have over-optimized your indicators via this requirement for such substantial divergence in what may well have been a brief consolidation period.

Certainly if you are right this market should reverse immediately and now plunge through the neckline. And while I'm flat at the moment, I certainly don't see that at this point in the hourly charts. Looking at the daily chart at this time would lead me to believe that after some corrective type action, we should take the highs out.

Either way, I respect your work, and appreciate all the effort. And as I say, I'll be the first to try to capitalize on the short side if the charts start to look that way. For the moment they do look overextended, but that doesn't necessarily lead to anything more than corrective action.

By the way, I found it interesting that better than 50% of the pollees tonight are expecting the market to go down, and are positioned that way. This following a very strong day.

IT

[arbman]

Trading range until the middle of August, be open minded for higher prices for now, then most likely we begin to really retrace the entire March rally. Fed will trash the USD and exhaust all options before the whole thing deflates by itself, the hyperinflation is not possible when the borrowing doesn't exist...

[goldswinger]

IYB, Thank you for sharing that clearness of sharp thought. Must be the Hawaian weather. Good Filters are what make buy signals happen in all timeframes. Any good system needs them and even then you find outliers as NAV clearly pointed out, no system is perfect but you have made a very convincing argument for more down from around here. I still believe we correct in the next day or so and then we test the high Today before a plunge. Aloha again. GS.