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New Bull Market?


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#21 MoneyFriend

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 01:31 AM

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#22 MoneyFriend

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 01:56 AM

If you look at MF's 50 year chart, you will not find a single example, not one, of the market starting from a low or a retest low and then taking 5 months or more to penetrate the 13 MMA and then continuing in a bull market. That, of course, would have to happen here for the first time ever for this "new bull market" thesis to be correct.


I count 2:
1970 - 5 months
1988 - 7 months

But that's just minutia.

The big picture as I see it:

We had a 57% decline, price trade >30% away from the 13 month MA, putting it all the way at the bottom of those deviation charts I just posted.
Now over the course of the last year we have managed to put in a 3 year poc at 900, the most volume for the last 3 years has been traded near 900, we are trading above it, value is building higher.
Odds really are in the bulls favor, I prefer to trade on odds and not gut feelings about it just not being the right set up yet.

In your 2002 example, the 3 year poc was 1320, price was trading 100 below that at the time, value was clearly building lower. The decline was 39% off from the 200 highs. The market was much weaker at that juncture. This is made very evident if you look at the McClellan summation, in March of 09 It just made all time highs, this was not the case in 02.

We already made our trip to the bottom of that bell curve, the bottom is probably in, merely trading near that 13 month ma is suggestive that price goes back to the poc of the curve, homeostasis of the market if you will, +5% above the 13 month ma, at the least.

BTW, I am short going in to Monday as I think we are ST overbought, but I look forward to putting on my next long, I don't like fighting the odds.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 19 July 2009 - 02:01 AM.


#23 IYB

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 02:20 AM

If you look at MF's 50 year chart, you will not find a single example, not one, of the market starting from a low or a retest low and then taking 5 months or more to penetrate the 13 MMA and then continuing in a bull market. That, of course, would have to happen here for the first time ever for this "new bull market" thesis to be correct.


I count 2:
1970 - 5 months
1988 - 7 months

But that's just minutia.

The big picture as I see it:

We had a 57% decline, price trade >30% away from the 13 month MA, putting it all the way at the bottom of those deviation charts I just posted.
Now over the course of the last year we have managed to put in a 3 year poc at 900, the most volume for the last 3 years has been traded near 900, we are trading above it, value is building higher.
Odds really are in the bulls favor, I prefer to trade on odds and not gut feelings about it just not being the right set up yet.

In your 2002 example, the 3 year poc was 1320, price was trading 100 below that at the time, value was clearly building lower. The decline was 39% off from the 200 highs. The market was much weaker at that juncture. This is made very evident if you look at the McClellan summation, in March of 09 It just made all time highs, this was not the case in 02.

We already made our trip to the bottom of that bell curve, the bottom is probably in, merely trading near that 13 month ma is suggestive that price goes back to the poc of the curve, homeostasis of the market if you will, +5% above the 13 month ma, at the least.

BTW, I am short going in to Monday as I think we are ST overbought, but I look forward to putting on my next long, I don't like fighting the odds.

As said - preachin' to the choir. :lol: Good night all.....D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#24 CLK

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 07:48 AM

I think we have had a running correction since May. A "V" bottom can unfold in many different ways. June was down for the Dow, so I consider that a correction already. I can see the risk reward favors being short if one looks at price alone here, and use the 13ma as the stop. I just think the internals have to be given some consideration. Good spot for puts and calls, because I think a big quick move is soon.

#25 dTraderB

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 08:14 AM

Not a new bull market. Possible path for SPX is a few more points on the upside, to about 975, then down
for the next 6 weeks or so, to about 780, possibly spiking to 740.
After that SPX will be up, ending 2009 at the high of year, 1050 or higher.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&i=p53137874525&a=149688849&r=635.png

I've opined many times here that the 13 month moving average of SPX does a great job of explaining and containing the primary cycle. Assuming for a moment that this time is not different, then where are we NOW in that primary cycle? Was there a period in 2000-2003 primary bear cycle that was "like" the current period? Is this still a bear market?

I will answer my last two questions first by saying "yes" and "yes" and will endeavor to show a direct comparison to the last cycle. But first I would like to define the current environment from my "internal view" perspective:

1. The 13 month moving average defines the primary cycle as currently DOWN.
2. We've rallied from an extreme fear based low back up to the declining 13 month MA, where we would expect it to turn back down
3. We had a seven sentinels sell signal in recent weeks, but continue to stay within a range, weakening as we go
4. The market tried to break down form this pattern, but instead launched a sharp rally off the lows
5. This rally was NOT proceeded by a "set up" to sustain an IT advance
6. We are back now near the top of the range and again nearly at declining the 13 month MA

Did all of that ever happen in the 2000-2003 period? Answer: "YES". When? Here:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2001-05-01&en=2002-03-07&i=p84777417571&a=173244987&r=135.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&st=2001-09-01&en=2002-08-01&i=p14691508978&a=173218271&r=831.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1999-01-01&en=2002-03-07&i=p91700479079&a=173250553&r=5676.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&i=p57176726570&a=172483578&r=707.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=1999-07-18&en=2003-06-01&i=p26441285841&a=173248346&r=5096.png

So bottom line, we're right back to this again:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&i=p53137874525&a=149688849&r=635.png

Am I missing something? Perhaps. Are there differences I'm overlooking? Perhaps. But from my perspective, that is what I see. You may see it very differently. At's that's okay by me. ;) Good Trading, D


Round, like a circle in a spiral
Like a wheel within a wheel
Never ending or beginning
On an ever spinning wheel….



#26 spielchekr

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 08:37 AM

03/1930: price crossed the 13 month ema 45.5% above the low

That was four months after a low.

Spielchekr,

Do you have a chart showing that? Would love to see how price behaved right after. Thanks.



Thanks, Laza. You made me realize I missed one... 9/1932. It's also on the chart. 91% from the bottom in two months. Those were heady days for bulls.

I also compared the daily ema curve, 1 day through 200 days, between now and that 1932 attempt's high. Both are inverted bell curves, and those are simply not bullish.

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#27 VolPivots

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 09:40 AM

Cyclical bull, secular bear. Quite similar to the 2000-02 cyclical bear....only difference then is that we had a 9/11 event that truncated the "B" wave cyclical bull. Leg A lasted ~ 1 year from 3/24/00 to 3/21/01, leg B for 1 year until 3/19/02 and the C wave for 1 yr down to the 3/12/03 cyclical low. Now we have A from Jul07 until Mar09, B wave in progress (this cyclical bull is not likely to truncate this time...no 9/11 event). Anyone recall the 2010 spring equinox time target I posted on 3/21/09...there is a reason behind the madness (I had a price target of 977, but time is the most important factor). Then the C wave commences down into the 9 yr low due circa 2011-12 timeframe.....and hopefully that marks the end of the secular bear....hopefully. If you follow the mortgage and/or REIT reset schedules this all ties in well fundamentally. So this B wave is an attempt to mark-up prices as high as possible, using the central bank liquidity backing, media outlets to frame up misleading context, and squeezing the short-selling bears to fuel the fire before the grand finale commences...JMHO of course.

#28 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 09:41 AM

I keep trying to find a way to explain the concept that bull markets come off of a base- a period of preperation to sustain higher prices.


Sound reasoning.
And man has never jumped off the ground and not immediately come back down.
That's why many doubted the Wright brothers.
However, inject unusual energy and physics, and pigs can fly.
Tornadoes, explosions, jet engines do it to objects all the time.

My question is, and I don't think anyone knows the answer, what effect will the government intervention have on a scale never seen before?
None of the charts above have input this energy's effect, have they?
And it is all being operated by unknown forces, as billions are handed out in secret to unknown parties.

We might as well throw away our historic charts and go short term at best.
And besides, isn't that the purpose of stops anyway?
We may be right long term but go broke short term.

This is not a "normal" bear market. Pigs do fly.
imho :huh:

Posted Image
PS: I am expecting some seasonal weakness beginning here.
Even flying pigs need to occasionally roll in the mud to stay cool.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 July 2009 - 10:38 AM.


#29 spielchekr

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 10:02 AM

MN, I'm with you. I interpret the fed's motive to be ensuring that GS's favored banking partners can acquire enough liquidity to survive. Both words and actions allude to this. The question is this: once there is enough liquidity available to ensure survival, what will become of it? Will they harden their defenses or return to their mega-leveraging ways? In other words, once they can sell their crap for enough money to get their books even remotely legitimate again, what will they do next?

#30 zoropb

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 10:23 AM

I keep trying to find a way to explain the concept that bull markets come off of a base- a period of preperation to sustain higher prices.


Sound reasoning.
And man has never jumped off the ground and not immediately come back down.
That's why many doubted the Wright brothers.
However, inject unusual energy and physics, and pigs can fly.
Tornadoes, explosions, jet engines do it to objects all the time.

My question is, and I don't think anyone knows the answer, what effect will the government intervention have on a scale never seen before?
None of the charts above have input this energy's effect, have they?
And it is all being operated by unknown forces, as billions are handed out in secret to unknown parties.

We might as well throw away our historic charts and go short term at best.
And besides, isn't that the purpose of stops anyway?
We may be right long term but go broke short term.

This is not a "normal" bear market. Pigs do fly.
imho :huh:

Posted Image

Pigs are not only flying right now they are skipping off the stratosphere.

RD makes good sense st for me too.

Z
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.