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New Bull Market?


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#41 laza

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 03:22 PM

You made me realize I missed one... 9/1932. It's also on the chart. 91% from the bottom in two months. Those were heady days for bulls.


Thanks for the chart...pretty amazing...

#42 spielchekr

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 06:06 PM

"I see TA stuff on here that's well above anything I've ever concocted".....i guess you aint seen the REAL stuff yet ;)


To those who get the REAL thing through a 900 number, more power to you.

#43 thespookyone

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 07:01 PM

Don-thx for some great, well thought out work there-and of course, I agree. Like yourself, I'll frontrun nothing. Although I must say that for the last 25 years or so frontrunners have been a tasty trading meal for me-I expect it will be no different this time.

#44 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 09:38 PM

IYB seems to have a bias for the first time that I've noticed since I have been on the board.

That's my reaction too.
But maybe justified.

#45 da_cheif

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 09:47 PM

gonna be a lotta splaining to do.......but they can allways blame it on that black box or those powers to be.........snort

#46 milbank

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 10:12 PM

gonna be a lotta splaining to do.......but they can allways blame it on that black box or those powers to be.........snort

Tisk, Tisk, you should be working for that all day Wall Street infomercial station with your ability to take things out of context like they do. The operative paragraph to my post began...

"Long-term, even with the algo, black boxes, I think that, as Benjamin Graham said in "The Intelligent Investor," "In the short run, the market is a voting machine,
but in the long run it is a weighing machine.
" still applies. ..."

Edited by milbank, 19 July 2009 - 10:13 PM.

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#47 IYB

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Posted 19 July 2009 - 11:32 PM

IYB seems to have a bias for the first time that I've noticed since I have been on the board.

That's my reaction too.
But maybe justified.

Bias is never justified.

The most dangerous four words in trading are "this time it's different". Lately I'm hearing it every which way I turn. I continue to resist the temptation to believe that what has worked in the past won't work "this time" because ....fill in the blank.... the printing press, the banks, stimulus, yada, yada, yada. I hear it here, I read it in market commentaries, I hear it from the media, and it seems to become a sticking point for arguments on FF. "Forget about the declining 50 week or 13 month moving average because this time its different. Don't you see that the Fed is printing money like crazy?"

Having a set of trading principals and sticking to them is not bias. I am using "bear market rules" in what I read as a bear market. Belief that a new bull market will come from a market that has build a base for a sustained advance is not bias. That is being true to my own trading rules.

There is no guarantee that I will be right. But I will be consistent. And if wrong, I'll be wrong sticking to principals I believe in, and will get turned around, absorb the loss, and move on. 'Nuff said.

D
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds

#48 MoneyFriend

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 12:09 AM

How is the POC for the last 3 years in the SPX, resting at 900 not a sound base?? The amount of volume here is exactly what makes a sound base imo. The amount of 90% up and down days in close proximity to eachother is also a great sign of a sound base. What is the point of clinging on to bear market rules when we have already gone to the bottom of that bell curve I posted? A strong rally up from a 57% decline is not bearish, it's how bull market's start. The average length for a bear market as defined by that 13 month MA's slope is 15 months, the average decline for a bear looking back 80 years is %45. By those simple standards the probabilities suggest the bottom is in. I cannot find any statistical evidence which suggests that odds favor lower lows this year. It's my opinion that getting heavily short here, expecting months more of heavy sell off is essentially saying to yourself "this time it's different".

#49 Cirrus

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 09:51 AM

IYB seems to have a bias for the first time that I've noticed since I have been on the board.

That's my reaction too.
But maybe justified.



Agreed Roger...hard to argue with just about anything from Don...he's been on the right side of the market since I've been here more than just about anyone else.

#50 Cirrus

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Posted 20 July 2009 - 09:59 AM

IYB seems to have a bias for the first time that I've noticed since I have been on the board.

That's my reaction too.
But maybe justified.

Bias is never justified.

The most dangerous four words in trading are "this time it's different". Lately I'm hearing it every which way I turn. I continue to resist the temptation to believe that what has worked in the past won't work "this time" because ....fill in the blank.... the printing press, the banks, stimulus, yada, yada, yada. I hear it here, I read it in market commentaries, I hear it from the media, and it seems to become a sticking point for arguments on FF. "Forget about the declining 50 week or 13 month moving average because this time its different. Don't you see that the Fed is printing money like crazy?"

Having a set of trading principals and sticking to them is not bias. I am using "bear market rules" in what I read as a bear market. Belief that a new bull market will come from a market that has build a base for a sustained advance is not bias. That is being true to my own trading rules.

There is no guarantee that I will be right. But I will be consistent. And if wrong, I'll be wrong sticking to principals I believe in, and will get turned around, absorb the loss, and move on. 'Nuff said.

D



Don...agreeed....but:

You have changed the sentinnels since you designed them and now they do add some degree subjectivity. I only stated that due to your repsonses to some threads over the last several months. You have responded with a statement or two that was not fully in line with the facts presented.

Don....I only say this for your consumption (offering critiques to a true wise man should draw thanks). I can say that through years you have been one of three or so others whose analysis I actually take VERY seriously....and I read plenty of market analysis on a daily basis and consider myself a very independent trader and thinker.