Posted 31 July 2009 - 04:30 PM
After careful reading I conclude that trading within the envelope is likely to be the best strategy. I never aspire get the top or the bottom, but I have made a wonderful living in the middle, when it becomes clear a trend is in progress. Your arguments are too for reaching and generalized to be useful to most mortals who simply want to trade consistently in identifiable patterns. Personally I did not find H/S formations were good pivots to launch from as a general rule.
I got a Ph.D twenty years ago for doing some similar statistical tests of probable market responses to certain cyclical patterns. If you clean up the grammar a little, and formalize the conclusions and the proofs offered it might be a useful contribution to cycles theory, or behavioral economics. Why not submit it to your Alma mater and see what happens? They may want three years out of your life - if so just walk away.