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Strong Trends


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#1 CHAx

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 08:54 PM

I need a better filter for strong trends. Been tooling around with VHF, DMI, and ROC. Anyone have any thoughts or good books? Thanks.

#2 CHAx

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 09:57 PM

Let me clarify, I have a good system for identifying hourly swing trades. But, I am looking for something to help filter out "bad" signals during strong trends. Just looking to improve my trading signals. Thanks.

#3 diogenes227

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 01:14 AM

Didn't you find the ADX within that DMI? When the ADX shows the market is trending, up or down, it's hard to argue with it no matter what any other indicator is saying. Check out an ADX on IWM from mid-day of July 14th through July 15th until the end of July 16th, a pure up trend on those days on the 60 min chart. See if that time your system gave false sells during that time. If so maybe the ADX will help you to filter them out. Good luck.

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#4 mss

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 06:02 AM

Let me clarify,

I have a good system for identifying hourly swing trades. But, I am looking for something to help filter out "bad" signals during strong trends. Just looking to improve my trading signals. Thanks.

Maybe I can help. Please identify a time frame you want to work with. I have several, they are for different time slots though.
Something may be of use to you.
mss
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#5 CHAx

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 08:38 AM

Didn't you find the ADX within that DMI?

When the ADX shows the market is trending, up or down, it's hard to argue with it no matter what any other indicator is saying.

Check out an ADX on IWM from mid-day of July 14th through July 15th until the end of July 16th, a pure up trend on those days on the 60 min chart. See if that time your system gave false sells during that time. If so maybe the ADX will help you to filter them out.

Good luck.



Diogenes,

Thanks for the comments and yes I am aware of the ADX component within DMI. You are correct it would have invalidated my signals most recently. I need more time to backtest it, though my eyeballing other trading periods, it may have kept me out of some juicy trades ;). I know there is no holy grail to this stuff, but always looking.

#6 CHAx

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 08:40 AM

Let me clarify,

I have a good system for identifying hourly swing trades. But, I am looking for something to help filter out "bad" signals during strong trends. Just looking to improve my trading signals. Thanks.

Maybe I can help. Please identify a time frame you want to work with. I have several, they are for different time slots though.
Something may be of use to you.
mss



Both daily and hourly. Hourly, more importantly though, because of the difficulty in "seeing" strong trends on the hourly.

#7 mss

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 12:32 PM

:) This may or may not help, but I will share what I use. Don't think I can help with a trend signal within a one hour span. I have had some success using the MACD 3,13,1 setting right over the price on a 30 min. chart. But I am not a hourly trader as such. I am not a day/hour trader except once in awhile to have fun, other wise a position/trend trader. Below is three charts to show what I have found to be very helpful in swing or position trading - my style - but may not suit every one. All three charts have price invisible as I react only to the action of the two averages. As long as the 8ema is above the 34ema, I do not sell, and when below, do not buy. I short only with ETFs, but I go long with stocks, ETFs, etc. The first is long term to get an overall view of how they work. [attachment=12536:spx_trnd.png] The second is a selected time frame for volatility period. [attachment=12537:spx2trd.png] The third is another suggesting days to stay long vs short. [attachment=12538:spx3trd.png] The ratios at the bottom are helpful to me but it is a feel type thing and takes a little practice, which is easy to pick up. The EMAs on an hour chart update every ONE min. on a rolling bases therefore you are only 8 min behind actual price (I have update set on 15 sec.) This is probably clear as mud but feel free to ask questions. mss
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#8 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 August 2009 - 02:04 PM

Kinch uses a similar tool and has found it invaluable for avoiding fighting moves like what we've just been through. I'll see if he can share it. Mark
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#9 dowdeva

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Posted 07 August 2009 - 08:30 PM

Mark, What tool shared here is Kinch's tool similar to? Mss's? I would like to see another tool. I depend on ADX pretty heavily. The lagging part is a problem though for catching the beginning of new trends. ~D

#10 dowdeva

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Posted 07 August 2009 - 08:42 PM

Let me clarify,

I have a good system for identifying hourly swing trades. But, I am looking for something to help filter out "bad" signals during strong trends. Just looking to improve my trading signals. Thanks.



Chax,

Without sharing anything proprietary, can you give some info about what you're using on your hourly charts?

If you're not comfy with this, no bad.

~D