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Strong Trends


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#11 laza

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Posted 08 August 2009 - 01:56 AM

Hi mss, interesting charts. May I ask what the effect is to put a "1" after the EMA? And does this set of EMAs work for you on a daily chart? Thx

#12 mss

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Posted 08 August 2009 - 06:32 AM

Hi mss, interesting charts. May I ask what the effect is to put a "1" after the EMA? And does this set of EMAs work for you on a daily chart? Thx

These work very well for me on daily and to some degree the hourly also. The purpose of the "1" is to offset the EMA forward, helps in "view" of the price move, in theory suggests the next price point.

mss
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#13 laza

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Posted 08 August 2009 - 11:00 PM

Thanks mss.

#14 CHAx

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Posted 10 August 2009 - 09:52 PM

Let me clarify time frames: If I am looking for swing setups on the hourly, my daily time frames cannot disagree. To me, when I say hourly, I mean I am looking at 60 minute time periods (IE candles). So my daily must already be in confirmed sell mode for me to sell short the hourly. Under certain circumstances I will probe hourly time frames in anticipation of daily turns (I know that if the hourly breaks price, the daily has a high probability of rolling etc). So what I am looking for here is a momentum indicator that will help me differentiate between trending/ranging. Everyone says how difficult counter-trend is, but its not if you understand what rolls time frames IMHO. MSS: I am to assume that each time frame has a hierarchy over the shorter time frames. Something likes this: when 8 ma is above 34 ma on the daily, then you look to buy what setups on the 30/60 minute time frames? How are you using RSI and MACD, as confirmation or as signals? What is a "bad" signal vs "good" signal? DowDeva: I haven't decided just yet what I am going to post, though I am going to share some thoughts and tools.

#15 mss

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Posted 12 August 2009 - 03:16 PM

MSS:

I am to assume that each time frame has a hierarchy over the shorter time frames. Something likes this: when 8 ma is above 34 ma on the daily, then you look to buy what setups on the 30/60 minute time frames? How are you using RSI and MACD, as confirmation or as signals? What is a "bad" signal vs "good" signal?

I will leave off a daily chart with the 8 & 34 ema on it as there are many of them posted and the use is pretty well known.

The first chart after daily is this one. The MACD (3,13,1) suggest momentum of the price and indicates if it is rising, falling, or staying within a range. The RSI (12)indicates OB & OS levels and if they are being worked off or not.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p17290711907&a=155479641&are=6865.png

This chart is my "tell-all" and is used for viewing total relationship of the 8 & 34 to price and the MACD (3,13,1) momentum. The bottom two MACDs are longer term momentum and are not laggers if you watch levels close. The 3,13,1 MACD cross over the EMAs are meaningless, just the "0" line. Notice several "buy/sell" points identified depending on your personal Risk/Reward level. You can use price to EMAs or EMAs to each other etc.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p80036327468&a=175274150&are=2148.png

The is the short term conformation/rejection of price and momentum if the EMAs are where you want them.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p01184224322&a=175360028&are=4223.png

This chart is the proof of short term hourly trade or not. Here it is price verses the EMA, confirmed or not by momentum. The bottom EMAs also lend insight.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&i=p85647695961&a=175360631&are=7519.png

Keep in mind that I do not normally day trade and the short term chart is for when other charts have told me to "buy/sell" and I am looking for best price point. Usually I use buy and sell price points.

I hope this answered most of your questions, as it is hard for me to write how I trade, because most of it is done according to what I "see" in the charts. Been at it too long, but I really, now need a pure mechanical system.

Questions & comments always welcome,
mss
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#16 CHAx

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Posted 16 August 2009 - 11:17 PM

MSS: I am still a bit confused about your time frames. Help me out, I am slow at understanding someone else's work :). Tell me if I make a mistake in my reasoning/understanding of your methodology: Intermediate Time Frame: After reviewing your MACD I see a series of lower highs and lower lows (July 13-Aug 17). A negative divergence to price. However, I also see a turn up and higher lows on your MACD (August 11 - 17). Do you consider the turn up to be a signal to be long, or do you consider the trend of highs and lows to be a signal to be short? Or something entirely different, as in the relationship to price, or away from price etc? I am not sure how you are using RSI to determine strength. I know a number of traders who use it differently-- for signals, divergences, trend change etc. Short term timing tools: When I look at your short term indicators like the 8/34 EMA and your MACD settings.... are you using them to identify selloffs getting close exhaustion in the short term in order to get long (assuming your daily indicators are saying: LONG)? What exactly are "see" ing? IE, Aug 7th @ 2:00 I see your indicators turn sharply, is that your warning, do not add to longs here (assuming you are trying to get long of course)? Or is the cross of the zero line on Aug 10 @ 12:00 more or less a warning to you: no longs until ____ ? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ I'm out of time here. More questions to be asked later.... thanks for your time MSS.

#17 mss

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Posted 18 August 2009 - 08:48 AM

:) No real mistake as I read your comments. Just a little tweaking is suggested, but not a must do. ;) I'm not sure which charts you are referring to so I am using my post dated 8/12 in this thread and will go down the charts one by one. The MACD (3,13,1) over price is used as a price momentum (strength) indicator. On the 7/13 DAILY chart MACD (3,13,1) went positive and on the 60min on the 13th. RSI (12) was showing strength on 9 & 10th, as was the MACD but by itself not convincing to go long. On the 13th - 14th confirmed. The MACD had lower highs and lower lows suggesting price momentum weaken and RSI indicating that OB was being worked off, lower readings @70rsi & 50rsi, 13&14 Aug RSI did not reach 70 and had lower highs. MACD had fallen below "0" lower low, the [bleeeep] to a higher low on 16 with price rising gave too many divergences - a SELL mid day. MACD (8,34,1) and MACD (5,21,1) are both longer term momentum indicators regardless of time frame, time does not effect their use fulness as they measure the movement of price relationship of the first two averages. As they range above or below the "0" line they measure advancing strength or waning strength in price. Aug 6th @ 2:00 to close we got a sharp up a buy if day trading, a sharp down @ 2:00 on Aug was a sell. RSI is suggesting weakness during this time frame. The lower PPt on 8/11 with MACDs (5,21 & 8,34) below "0" said do not add and a sell warning. All confirmed on 8/14. Now its pick you sell point, suggested around noon. A better point was of course around 3:30 but don't be greedy. Warnings to not add or get out started on the 10 & 11th. Please keep in mind I rarely DAY trade I use short term charts to try and pick the best BUY/SELL point. If I'm still not clearer, please ask. I been at it so long (50+yrs) that some of my decisions are made by looking at the charts, NOT studying them, and making a gut decision. But the system serves me very well. NO SYSTEM IS PERFECT, but whipsaws are usually few and far between. AS of today 8/18 9:45 the suggestion is to wait and see. B) mss
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