45 replies to this topic

[punter]

IYB, thanks for your excellent sharing as always. July 15 was a indeed a buy signal on my own system but I misinterpreted and it costs me financial losts. It probably boils down to us not accepting that the bear market is over. I think that it is too early to state that the new bull has started. I share my technical view shortly. Cheers.

[NAV]

Good post Don. And in my opinion, you should definitely include the Buy signal on your chart. It accurately reflects what the indicator was saying at the time. We all know you filter these signals with your own interpretation. You're gonna make your mistakes, just as we all do. I make them all the time.

How do you propose now to get long? Are you going to wait for a correction? Or do you just get long Monday AM?

IT

Thanks IT. Appreciated. I knew that there was really no way to do this that would make everybody happy but still accurately reflect my methodology, so I did it the best way I could come up with.

I plan to get about 15-20% long right away, then try to build to 100% on pull backs. Aloha, D

You may be right or wrong about the bull market call. But i think buying right here at a overbought weekly, sounds like a risky bet. Good luck to you. Thanks for your intrepretation of the market by your methodology. I continue to remain in the bear market camp.

[ken29]

MY $$$ is on NAV

[goldswinger]

IYB, I got to ask you, extreme barometric pressure change in the Hawaiian Islands? You are turning when this thing is just about to turn the other way. I have to admit there is a slim chance for a new high but it will turn right away. Just take a look at the Dollar chart or the $XEU:$XJY and the red reversal candles on that one.......or the reversals on the $CRB and $CCI..., etc. GS.

[pdx5]

The opportunity of this decade to go long was in March 2009. I do not recall any posts crying screaming bull at that time except perhaps UFO and Cheif. Since then SPX has turned in 50%+ gain...which on average takes 7+ years.

[MoneyFriend]

The opportunity of this decade to go long was in March 2009. I do not recall any
posts crying screaming bull at that time except perhaps UFO and Cheif.
Since then SPX has turned in 50%+ gain...which on average takes 7+ years.

Agreed, anyone who is getting long just now and expecting another 10% of upside without any major draw-down first is essentially asking for the market to continue making new all time record highs in breadth; it's unlikely for the breadth to sustain. Most likely we get another visit to 950, I figure most of those who are just now turning LT bullish and going long will be left utterly confused in the even that 915 gets revisited, there is still great potential for this to happen, the key lies in "the singles" that I pointed out months back, they are still in play as they haven't quite filled up yet. 1150 to 900 (the singles) will make for a few more crazy swings ahead of here, expecting to see the VIX back around 30 this week.

Record breadth harbingers in the new LT Bull, with IT bearish implications.

Edited by MoneyFriend, 10 August 2009 - 12:06 AM.

[Not Too Swift]

The first post was ok. The second is piling on.

Piling on? I'm merely quoting IYB and pointing out a distinction which I think should be made very clear to those who have not been following the SS as closely as you may have.

I'm not trying to agitate anyone I just think it's dishonest to change the signal 3 weeks after the fact.
IMO, there should be a new signal the "Seven Sentinel changed mind" signal or SSCM. And it should show up on the chart above August 9th.
It's fine for one to change their mind, but what happened on July was deemed a sell, it is dishonest to go back and rewrite history now.
If I were new here and saw IYB's chart, it would be very misleading to see July 15th marked as a buy signal, because he clearly stated it was a sell over 3 weeks ago.
From my understanding IYB is the keeper of the SS, he is the interpreter, it's his baby, his interpretations are the signals, the setups are very subjective and IYB is the one who knows the system best, it's only fair to keep the charts marked with the original interpretation.

To my way of thinking, your first post stated what you wanted. That was fine by me. You don't have to say anything more to prove your point.

After all of the years of being a complete gentleman on this forum, most of us owe IYB more than a bit of slack if the Seven Sentinels turn out not to be perfect.

BTW, I am not convinced the problem is with the Seven Sentinels or with IYB's interpretation of them. It will be interesting to watch this year develop.

[MoneyFriend]

To my way of thinking, your first post stated what you wanted. That was fine by me. You don't have to say anything more to prove your point.

I heard you loud and clear before! Don updated the chart to clearly show that it was not interpreted as a buy signal until now, that's all I was asking be done. This is moot to me now.

[Echo]

Don, thanks for the detailed post and clear explanation of your thoughts. I too was caught leaning the wrong way based on my expectation for a Hurst 20wk low July 24th area and several technical factors relating to certain sectors including financials and consumers.

In looking to what failed you in your interpertation of the SS buy signal I have this observation, and it comes from what I believe I should have given more weight to in my technical analysis as well. You disregarded a clear SSBS based on your perceived lack of internals divergence associated with it, right?

I think that if you keep it simple, you had clearcut divergence. Just look at the NYSE. The big board. NYMO showed a clear divergence with an internal low in mid and again in late June with the price low following in early July with higher highs in NYMO. In the future, it might be better to just look to NYMO for your divergent condition. Now if you review the various MCO's on DP, you can see divergences in just about every other index including NDX, SPX, OEX, INDU, MID, and SML. Don't put too much emphasis on NAMO, it is forever at the mercy of a declining NAAD.

I know you like to look at hundreds of other internals for divergences, but my point is that perhaps that is what failed you in July---looking for a very broad range of internal divergence.

In the future, maybe better to keep it simple...
If NYMO is diverging, that is enough. Take the signal.

Thanks again for sharing your work.

Echo

[inamosa]

Don, thanks for the detailed post and clear explanation of your thoughts. I too was caught leaning the wrong way based on my expectation for a Hurst 20wk low July 24th area and several technical factors relating to certain sectors including financials and consumers.

In looking to what failed you in your interpertation of the SS buy signal I have this observation, and it comes from what I believe I should have given more weight to in my technical analysis as well. You disregarded a clear SSBS based on your perceived lack of internals divergence associated with it, right?

I think that if you keep it simple, you had clearcut divergence. Just look at the NYSE. The big board. NYMO showed a clear divergence with an internal low in mid and again in late June with the price low following in early July with higher highs in NYMO. In the future, it might be better to just look to NYMO for your divergent condition. Now if you review the various MCO's on DP, you can see divergences in just about every other index including NDX, SPX, OEX, INDU, MID, and SML. Don't put too much emphasis on NAMO, it is forever at the mercy of a declining NAAD.

I know you like to look at hundreds of other internals for divergences, but my point is that perhaps that is what failed you in July---looking for a very broad range of internal divergence.

In the future, maybe better to keep it simple...
If NYMO is diverging, that is enough. Take the signal.

Thanks again for sharing your work.

Echo

Good post

I agree