Ahead Of The FOMC Meeting And Weird Wally Wednesday
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:46 AM
TheVRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Tuesday 8/11/2009
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
LEIBOVIT FILES | by MarkLeibovit
Leibovit Files
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Ahead Of The FOMC Meeting And Weird Wally Wednesday
The Debt Clock URL Widget:
Running total of U.S. indebtedness.
http://www.truthin08.org/widget/
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
August 11-14, 2009:
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TUESDAY, August 11:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
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WEDNESDAY, August 12:
Weird Wally Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET
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THURSDAY, August 13:
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index
9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
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FRIDAY, August 14:
Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
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STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Well, today is a potential 'Turnaround Tuesday' suggesting thelikelihood of a bounce off the decline which essentially began onFriday. Ahead is tomorrow's FOMC announcement and 'Weird WallyWednesday', so all bets are off. I'm leaning to a pullback scenariohere, but with all the manipulation (both in terms of stocks and news)and the unmistaken 'financial engineering' by the Plunge ProtectionTeam and Goldman (Government) Sachs (GS), bear traps are seteverywhere.
The Nasdaq which has been leading the recent advance has 'flattenedout' in recent sessions with the Dow Transports reinstating its role asa market leader. Keep an eye on both for hints of short-term marketdirection.
An ideal scenario would call for a market low between the third weekof August and the end of September. We will know 'in the fullness oftime'.
Meanwhile, traders took some profits yesterday on the heels ofFriday's poor close and Platinum subscribers were instructed to lightenup. For the session, the Dow was off 32.12 at 933795, the S&P 500was off 3.38 at 1007.10, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 8.01 at1992.24. Volume decreased on the Nasdaq, but increased on the NYSE.Breadth was negative.
There were no economic releases yesterday, so the pre-market futurestook their cue from Europe, causing a soft open from which the indicesnever recovered.
There was a noticeable rotation into defensive plays as TLT (20+ YrUS Govt Bonds) was up 1.25%, XLV (Healthcare) was up 0.80%, and XLU(Utilities) were up 0.21%. Also - consumer staples (XLP +0.08%)outpaced consumer discretionary (XLY -0.91%) while Industrials (XLI)also dropped 0.96%, coinciding with yesterday's defensive theme. Doesthis rotation hold any significance or will it be reversed on today'sTurnaround Tuesday? The trend is up and traders could re-embrace riskat any time.
Partially offsetting the defensive rotation, however, was theoutperformance by small caps. The Russell 2000 was almost flat, losingjust 0.09%.
Energy shares put in a solid day in the face of a soft market as XLEgained 0.43%. The other commodity based sector, Materials (XLB),dropped 1.32% as metal prices fell across the board.
Citigroup economist Steven Wieting said Monday he had raised hisoutlook for S&P 500 operating earnings to $60 a share this year,from a previous outlook of $56, citing "the turn in both financialconditions and cyclical activity indicators." Wieting also lifted hisforecasting team's 2010 outlook to $68 from $62 a share. He noted thelevel of operating profits for companies in the benchmark U.S. stocksindex has risen at a 49% annualized rate in the first half of this yearfrom last year's second half, even while economic activity and salesshrank. "This is actually a hopeful sign for what we can expect fromprofits in the period ahead," wrote Wieting. Profits are still set toslide nearly 3% this year from 2008.
Profit taking was most pronounced in the economically sensitiveareas of financials (XLF -0.42%), retail (XRT -1.94%) and real estate(IYR -1.98%). All were lower on much lighter volume than Friday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and reports Wednesday, so this could bemarket 'moving' event ahead. Tuesday is also a potential 'TurnaroundTuesday' and Wednesday is another 'Weird Wally Wednesday' both have thepotential of turning the market lower. Some market leaders such GS(Goldman Sachs a/k/a Government Sachs) are acting a little dubious(Negative VR on Friday), but the overall market continues to pushhigher.
Folks, there will be a correction, but what we've learned sinceMarch (recall I flashed an initial TIMER DIGEST 'Buy Signal' on March4) is that this market is clearly climbing a 'Wall of Worry' and isbeing 'engineered' higher. It may be one heck of a bear market rally,but what if we're wrong in that assessment and those who have beenpounding the table regarding the likelihood that we've seen'generational' lows are indeed right? The answer is that there is noway of knowing, so you have to trade the market whether your timeframeis one week or six months.
On some occasions we've seen the market top out in August and turnsouth into the fall - the notorious September/October correction! So wehave reason to be concerned, but that concern may be exaggerated in thecurrent market cycle.
Overall, my view remains that at the very least we're retracing outa 50% correction of the bear market decline, possibly even 61.8% (thefibonacci number) which would place the Dow Industrials between 10,300and 11,300 at some point in coming months. Time cycles presentlyindicate the potential for this market to just about fool everyone.They show upside potential into next summer.
What is a poor trader to do? Very short-term, with the US Dollarsticking its ugly head above water this past week and with the FOMCmeeting ahead, you might want to lock in some profits here and watch.More intermediate plays, however, might be best advised to hold on forthe ride.
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
The Dow Transports underperformed yesterday, falling 38.61 or 1.03%to 3710.97. But remember, the Transports had a great day Friday,rallying 4%. The Airline Index (^XAL) fell 2.5% as oil prices remainstubbornly high.
The Transports hit new intra-day and closing recovery highs onFriday, the highest its been since November. From the low to Friday'shigh, the Transports rallied 26.3% since the July 8 low and 76.9% sincethe March low. It may be time for a correction. Look for support at theold May high of 3458.23 and at the 50 day moving average, currently at3340.
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
The weekly VR Gold Letter focuses on Gold and Gold shares. Theletter is available to Platinum subscribers for only an additional $50per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 per month. Email me atmark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
Precious metals got hit yesterday by falling demand and a rising USDollar. Gold fell 9.80 to 945.60, silver dropped 0.26 to 14.34,platinum lost 19 to 1244, and palladium slipped 1 to 273. Even copper,which hit a recovery high of 2.8465 yesterday morning, settled down0.0150 at 2.7705.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 1,068.90 metric tons Friday,down 3.97 metric tons from a day ago, according to the latest data fromthe fund. Holdings have dropped more than 50 metric tons in one monthand now stand at the lowest level since May 13.
I believe we could be mirroring the '1979' pattern, we could belooking at 12-18 months of explosive upside action ahead. Maybe we haveto wait 18 to 24 months and I'm early, but bearish sentiment, let'scall it disbelief, still runs high for Gold. The fact the Gold shareshave been leading the metal higher is a very bullish sign. Gold isvolatile and has been manipulated by the US government for decades.Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in theReagan administration. He is co-author of The Tyranny of GoodIntentions. He can be reached at: PaulCraigRoberts@yahoo.com. Hewrites: "If incompetence in Washington, the type of incompetence thatproduced the current economic crisis, destroys the dollar as reservecurrency, the "unipower" will overnight become a third world country,unable to pay for its imports or to sustain its standard of living. Howlong can the US government protect the dollar's value by leasing itsgold to bullion dealers who sell it, t hereby holding down the goldprice? Given the incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street, ourbest hope is that the rest of the world is even less competent and evenin deeper trouble. In this event, the US dollar might survive as theleast valueless of the world's fiat currencies."
Gold is still not too far from its recent high of 1007.20 fromFebruary 20 and the all time high of 1037 from March 17, 2008. Silverhit its highest level since August 2008 on June 3, marking an 80% fromits November/December 2008 low. My intermediate target for Gold is 1200and my big picture target (possibly within the next two years) is for3000. We could go even higher, but if we think in terms of a 20-year upcycle, i.e., into 2020 there is plenty of time to see this unfold andI'm sure we're going to have to trade it (both long and short) alongthe way. My view is that 1000 will become the new FLOOR for Gold justas 1000 became the new FLOOR for the Dow Industrials when it brokethrough to the upside back in 1982.
One view here holds that deflationary forces will overpowerinflationary forces and Gold will FIRST decline. That may be true, butthe lessons of the 1930s show that gold-mining shares may showextraordinary gains in such a period. For example, between 1930 and1935 Homestake Mining rallied from $80 to $495 per share in adeflationary environment. The answer folks is to hold both physicalgold and gold mining shares to get the best of both worlds, i.e., dowell in a deflationary environment and an inflationary environment.
We hold Gold as a safe-haven asset, a portfolio diversifier, toprotect against inflation and deflation, and, most importantly, toprotect against the debasement of our currency and all currencies (fiatmoney) will lead to their demise. This is why you own Gold. You alsoown Gold as the 'tea parties' in our country are a warning of moretrouble ahead both in terms of a financial crisis but also in terms ofimpending social unrest. During the 1930s during deflation, gold shareswere star performers as the cost of mining gold sank. Silver shouldoutperform during an inflationary period, however.
Silver (spot) touched 16.28 on June 3 while the SLV (ETF) touched15.78. We have unfulfilled potential up to 18.00 on its way to newhighs above 21.00. Support is 1154-1189, 1061-1085 and 961-980.
--------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries rallied yesterday, recovering some of last week's losses,thanks to the weak stock market and a strong US Dollar drawing moneyback into US Treasuries. The long bond future is rose 1 6/64 to 11626/64.
The Federal Reserve will probably allow its $300 billionTreasury-buying program to end over the next six weeks as signs of ahousing recovery prompt the central bank to unwind one its mostaggressive and unusual interventions into financial markets.
This lack of support as the Treasury auctions off $2 trillion ofbonds this fiscal year will likely lead to higher interest rates,unless the economy turns down again.
The Federal Reserve bought $6.6 billion of debt maturing in 2012 and2013. Dealers submitted $22.002 billion in debt to the central bank.The last time the Fed bought from this sector, it purchased about $6.5billion.
The long bond future hit a low of 114 51/64 Friday morning, breakingthrough support at the July 27 low of 114 60/64. Next major support isthe June 11 low of 111 43/64.
Treasuries saw quite a rally recently, with the long bond futurerallying from a low of 111 43/64 on June 11 to the July 8 high of 12123/64. But we must also remember that the long bond future hit a highof 142 60/64 back in December and we have fallen quite dramaticallyfrom that level.
Treasuries have an interesting problem here. If the economycontinues falling, Treasuries should benefit from the Fed keepinginterest rates low and the flight to safety. However, the weak economywill only enlarge the already huge budget deficit, thus brining evenmore supply to market. It appears that Treasuries will be weak, in thelong run, either way thanks to those budget deficits, but could rallyin the short term on a flight to safety.
Though we have recovered somewhat in the last few weeks, the fallingbond market of the last six months is not a good sign. First, risingTreasury rates may cause mortgage rates to rise, hurting the housingmarket which needs all the help it can get. Furthermore, with thegovernment racking up huge deficits on top of its already giganticdebt, higher rates will make its interest payment balloon, increasingthe debt even further.
Despite these events, I believe the financial markets and news arebeing manipulated on an unprecedented scale and, as you know, greedbegets greed. So if financial markets are moving higher and if theperception of improving housing becomes reality, we could see the'recovery' continue despite higher rates. We also cannot dismissgovernment intervention in the housing market. I am quite sure how theywould pull this off short of buying up the supply of housing, but Isure wouldn't put it past them.
Bottom line: I believe interest rates will go higher, but I amofficially on a 'Neutral' signal for the bond market.
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil got hit yesterday by the stronger dollar and a weak stockmarket. Nevertheless, its decline was quite modest. Crude oil fell 0.33to 70.60.
The president of the Organization of the Petroleum ExportingCountries said Sunday that oil prices around $70 a barrel are not bad,according to media reports. Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos is Angola's oilminister in addition to the his duties with the OPEC cartel.
Technicals are positive, so I'm predicting a move to $83.00 a barrelover the near term and we'll take it from there.
But a lot depends on the US Dollar right now with this recent rallyhurting oil slightly.
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US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index managed a small rally yesterday, continuing fromits big rally on Friday, gaining a marginal 0.281 to 79.256.
Lots of economic news out of Japan. The Dollar is down 0.280 to97.275 against the Yen.
Japanese core machinery orders jumped more than forecast. Coreorders soared 9.7% in June from the previous month, a much biggerincrease than the 2.9% rise expected on average by economists surveyedby Nikkei and Dow Jones Newswires. Core orders exclude often-largeorders for ships and those from electric power companies, which canskew data. Total orders rose 2.3% in June from May, the Cabinet Officesaid. But looking ahead, the data hinted that Japan's recovery path isanything but clear. Orders fell 4.9% in the April-June period from theprevious quarter, although they were forecast to drop 8.6% in thecurrent quarter, the government said, based on its survey of companies.
Separate data from the Ministry of Finance showed Japan'scurrent-account surplus more than doubled on year in June. The 144.4%rise to 1.153 trillion yen ($11.8 billion), also beat forecasts for a39.9% increase. June's rise marked the first increase in the surplus in16 months. Exports fell 37% on year in June, and imports slipped 43.8%.In addition to trade flows, the current account figures track servicesand investment.
In separate data released Monday, Bank of Japan said bank lendingrose 2.1% on year in July. But that slowed from June's 2.4% on-yearincrease, suggesting that companies' need to borrow to fund investmentsin new plants and equipment could be waning. Moreover, the data showedcommercial paper issuance underwritten by banks was down 25.2% on yearin July, a steeper drop than June's 21.8%, indicating that overallcapital requirement on private sector is weakening.
A Positive Volume Reversal ™ was formed in UUP (the long ETF forthe US Dollar Index) on Friday. Obviously, some traders wereanticipating a rally. Also, bearish sentiment continues at extremelyhigh levels for the US Dollar Index and rallies such as we witnessedThursday and Friday have to be expected.
Upside potential COULD be to the 82.00-83.00 range. We'll take itfrom there.
Last week's low was 77.428 in the Dollar Index. A break under thatlevel resumes potential for a possible retest of the big 70.698 lowfrom March 18, 2008, though we first have support at 75.890.
As the market gets more and more comfortable with our economicsituation, the US Dollar declines. As the market crashed, tradersrushed in a flight to safety into the US Dollar. But now, even with theeconomy still in recession, it is no longer in freefall and the stockmarket is rallying. Between the March low and now traders wereconverting their US Dollars back into local currency and preparing tospend of invest their money again.
It is becoming clear that U.S. debt instruments are no longer viewedas the safe haven they once were among foreign investors. Our currencyis paying a price for the liquidity flood and debt issuance beingcreated by the Fed and the Obama administration.
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URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
August 3, 2009 Posting
Spot: $48.50 UP 1.50. Bull market high in the cash market was $136.00.
The September Uranium Futures closed at $48.50. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.Confirmation of a bottom is at hand with uranium shares in niceuptrends. We're long one of these in the Platinum service and lookingat others.
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IN THE NEWS:
Sugar prices extended their rally Monday. October raw-sugar futureswere last up 6.6% to 22.19 cents a pound on the ICE Futures U.S.,rising above 22 cents for the first time since 1981. It hit an intradayhigh of 22.44 cents a pound.
IPSU and SGG are plays here on a pullback.
Dynegy reported a second-quarter loss of $345 million, or 41 cents ashare, compared with a loss of $272 million, or 32 cents a share, ayear ago. Sales rose 53% to $493 million as increased volume made upfor lower energy prices. Dynegy also confirmed LS Power Associates LPwill buy nine of its U.S. power plants. DYN jumped 15.5%.
Dish Network said its second-quarter net income dropped 81% to $63.4million, or 14 cents a share, as revenue fell 0.4% to $2.9 billion.Dish said it added approximately 26,000 net new subscribers during thequarter, its first quarterly net increase in five quarters. But costsfor programming content, call-center operations, customer retention,and increased personnel, as well as a $196 million hit from Tivolitigation expense, weighed on its profit. Analysts had expected aprofit of 65 cents a share. DISH rallied 4.8%.
McDonald's said Monday that global same-store sales rose 4.3% inJuly. The increase was powered by a 7.2% increase in same-store salesin Europe. Same-store sales in the U.S. and rest of the world were up2.6% and 2.1%, respectively. The fast food retailer noted strong salesgrowth in France and the U.K. and also said its U.S. sales rise wasprimarily due to new products such as McCafe espresso-based coffees.MCD rose 1.9%.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy, the largest U.S. electronicsretailer, to a neutral rating from buy. While Best Buy has gained andis expected to continue reaping additional market share from the demiseof former rival Circuit City, it faces increased competition from bothdiscounters and online retailers, Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fasslersaid in a report. Best Buy also faces traffic pressures arising fromslowing sales of music and DVDs as well as a maturing video-game cycle,the analyst said. At the same time, the declining average selling priceof flat-panel televisions also hurt transaction amounts while thecompany's aggressively investing in overseas growth as domestic profitmargins appear close to peak levels, he said. BBY fell 5.3%.
Berkshire Hathaway shares were downgraded Monday by analysts atFox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia after a recent rally left the stocktrading in line with historical levels. The analysts, Matthew Carlettiand Lee Feingold, lowered their recommendation on Berkshire stock to inline from outperform. After a recent rally, Berkshire shares trade at1.5 times book value, in line with the stock's five-year average, theanalysts noted. "These are fair valuations at a time when thenon-insurance segments of the business continue to struggle amidst atough economic environment and fell short of our projections in thequarter," Carletti and Feingold wrote in a note to investors. BRK-Alost 3.8% or 4100 to 104,000.
Freddie Mac reported a quarterly profit and said it won't have tohit up the government for more financial assistance, at least for now.Freddie Mac reported second-quarter net income of $768 million lateFriday, compared to a net loss of $9.9 billion during the same period ayear earlier. After a $1.1 billion dividend payment on its seniorpreferred stock owned by the Treasury Department, Freddie reported anet loss of 11 cents per common share. That compares to a net loss$3.14 per common share in the first quarter of 2009, the mortgage giantnoted. Freddie said it had a positive net worth of $8.2 billion at theend of June. That means the company didn't need to ask the governmentfor more money. The latest results include net interest income of $4.3billion and $4.2 billion of gains on the company's derivative portfolioand guarantee asset business. Freddie also set aside $5.2 billion inprovisions to cover credit losses. FRE surged 128.4% to close at 1.69.FNM rallied in sympathy, up 51.5%.
Southwest Airlines said Monday it has submitted a binding cash offerof more than $170 million to acquire, which will be sold at auction aspart of Frontier's bankruptcy case. As part of the offer, Southwestwould acquire about 80% of Frontier's existing Airbus fleet, or 40aircraft, plus all of Lynx, Frontier's short-haul subsidiary. "Webelieve our bid ultimately should be seen as the strongest offer by allinterested parties, including Frontier, its creditors, employees, andcustomers," said Southwest Air's Chief Executive Gary Kelly in aprepared statement. The auction is expected to start on Thursday. LUVdecline 2.6%.
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TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available toPlatinum subscribers on the Home Page. We flashed a 'Buy' signal onMarch 4 for stocks and are now on a May 27 'Sell' signal. TIMER DIGESThas named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 IntermediateMarket Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYSTSURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMINGAS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal? There are several proprietary subtletiesto the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially a VolumeReversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid plays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please goour Current Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or,if you would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available.
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Volume Reversals - 8/10/09
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POSITIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
DAY.UN DAYLIGHT RESOURCES TR
PD.UN PRECISION DRILLING TRUST
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
BZC Breeze Eastern Corp
KAMN Kaman Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
SMP Standard Motor Prods
WMCO Williams Controls Inc
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
CBKN Capital Bank Corp Rlghnc
GRAN Bank Of Granite Corp
MNRK Monarch Bank
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
CSNT Crescent Banking Company
PBIB Porter Bancorp Inc
RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc Cla
BANKING Savings & Loans
BKJ Bancorp of New Jersey Inc
CBNK Chicopee Bancorp Inc
ESSA Essa Bancorp Inc
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
GU Gushan Environmental Energy Li
IOSP Innospec Inc
MACE Mace Security Internat
NOEC New Oriental Energy Chemical C
CHEMICALS Synthetics
SHI Shanghai Petrochemical
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
TISA Top Image Systems Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
GRU Gurunet Corporation
IDC Interactive Data Corporation
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
RTK Rentech Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
PAY VeriFone Holdings Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
DTSI DTS Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Recreational Goods
FUQI Fuqi International Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
KBR KBR Inc.
VSEC Vse Corp
DRUGS Biotechnology
BPAX Biosante Pharmaceuticals
CERS Cerus Corporation
CORT Corcept Therapeutics
CRTX Critical Therapeutics Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
BTUI Btu International Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
BDCO Blue Dolphin Energy Co
DBLE Double Eagle Petroleum
EAC Encore Acquisition
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BBH Biotech HOLDRS ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fun
EVX Market Vectors Environmental S
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ENSG Ensign Group
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
HNSN Hansen Medical Inc
MDT Medtronic Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
HRC Hill-Rom Holdings` Inc.
IFLO I-Flow Corp
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
TCX Tucows Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
CKSW Clicksoftware Technlgies
RAX Rackspace Hosting
SPRT Supportsoft Inc
LEISURE Lodging
RLH Red Lions Hotel Corp
LEISURE Restaurants
GCFB Granite City Food & Brewery Lt
MCD Mcdonalds Corp
SNS The Steak N Shake Comp
TAST Carrols Restaurant Group Inc.
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
BLD Baldwin Technology Inc A
DRC Dresser-Rand Group Inc
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
CLDN Celadon Group Inc
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
BHO B&H Ocean Carriers Ltd
ONAV Omega Navigation Enterprises I
PRGN Paragon Shipping Inc
SFL Ship Finance Intl Ltd
TGP Teekay LNG Partners LP
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
APWR A-Power Energy Generation Sys
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Part
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
AER.UN GROUPE-AEROPLAN, INC.
AET.UN ARC ENERGY TRUST
CEW CLAYMORE EQUAL WEIGHT
CJP.UN CLAYMORE JAPAN FUNDAMENTALS
CLO CLAYMORE OIL SANDS SE
CMW.UN CLAYMORE S&P/TSX GLOB MINING
EET ETRUSCAN RESOURCES IN CL '
PZG.UN PARAMOUNT GOLD & SILVER
XSP ISHARES CDN S&P 500 H
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
HWK Hawk Corp
ITA iShares DJ US Aerospace & Def
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
DAI Daimler Ag
TTM Tata Motors Ltd Ads
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
GNTX Gentex Corp
TRW Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
FSS Federal Signal Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
BCA Corpbanca Ads
BLX Banco Latino Americano
BANKING Money Center Banks
WBK Westpac Banking Cp
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
AANB Abigail Adams Natl Bancp
BAYN Bay National Corp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BXS Bancorpsouth Inc
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
FCFC Firstcity Financial Corp
BANKING Savings & Loans
ASBI Ameriana Bancorp
BBX Bankatlantic Bancorp A
BYFC Broadway Financial Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
BOOT Lacrosse Footwear Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
CRAI Cra International Inc
HIL Hill International Inc
ICFI ICF International Inc.
IRM Iron Mountain Inc
NSR NeuStar Inc
REIS Reis` Inc.
DRUGS Biotechnology
MIPI Molecular Insight Pharmaceutic
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
PBIO Pressure BioSciences Inc
DRUGS Drug Delivery
BVF Biovail Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
UTEK Ultratech Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CKX CKX Lands Inc
EOG Eog Resources Inc
ISRL Isramco Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund E
ADRU BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fun
BDH Broadband HOLDRS ETF
BGY Blackrock International Growth
DGT streetTRACKS Dow Jones Global
DHS WisdomTree High-Yielding Equit
DIA DIAMONDS Trust Series ETF
DPO Dow 30 Enhanced Premium & Inc
DSI iShares KLD 400 Social Index F
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
FSTF First State Financial
MSB Mesabi Trust Cbi
OXPS Optionsxpress Holdings
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
FCSX FCStone Group` Inc.
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
DHIL Diamond Hill Investment Group
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
KO Coca-Cola Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
BF.A Brown-forman Corp Cl A
LEISURE Restaurants
FRN Friendly Ice Cream Corp
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
AP Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
IR Ingersoll-rand Ltd Cl A
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc
JBT John Bean Technologies Corpora
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
DE Deere & Co
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
ANO Anooraq Resources Corp
BBL Bhp Billiton Plc Ads
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
AHGP Alliance Holdings GP LP
GBG Great Basin Gold
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
IPS Ipsco Inc
PKX Posco
STLD Steel Dynamics Inc
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
IOT Income Opportun Rlty Inv
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
ARL American Realty Invest
CALC California Coastal Comm
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
BKRS Bakers Footwear Group Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Auto Dealerships
AN Autonation Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
TITN Titan Machinery Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
CRNT Ceragon Networks Ltd
ERIC Lm Ericsson Telephone Co
GLW Corning Inc
LLL L-3 Communications Hldgs
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
SMLC Smile Communications
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
TDW Tidewater Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
NWE Northwestern Corp
VVC Vectren Corporation
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
BKH Black Hills Corp
EDN Empresa Distribuildora Comer
ITC ITC Holdings Corp
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
ARG Airgas Inc
MSM Msc Industrial Direct A
WHOLESALE Medical Equipment Wholesale
PDEX Pro-Dex Inc Co
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Leibovit Files
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Ahead Of The FOMC Meeting And Weird Wally Wednesday
The Debt Clock URL Widget:
Running total of U.S. indebtedness.
http://www.truthin08.org/widget/
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
August 11-14, 2009:
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TUESDAY, August 11:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
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WEDNESDAY, August 12:
Weird Wally Wednesday
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:15 PM ET
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THURSDAY, August 13:
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
RBC CASH Index
9:00 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, August 14:
Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment
9:55 AM ET
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Well, today is a potential 'Turnaround Tuesday' suggesting thelikelihood of a bounce off the decline which essentially began onFriday. Ahead is tomorrow's FOMC announcement and 'Weird WallyWednesday', so all bets are off. I'm leaning to a pullback scenariohere, but with all the manipulation (both in terms of stocks and news)and the unmistaken 'financial engineering' by the Plunge ProtectionTeam and Goldman (Government) Sachs (GS), bear traps are seteverywhere.
The Nasdaq which has been leading the recent advance has 'flattenedout' in recent sessions with the Dow Transports reinstating its role asa market leader. Keep an eye on both for hints of short-term marketdirection.
An ideal scenario would call for a market low between the third weekof August and the end of September. We will know 'in the fullness oftime'.
Meanwhile, traders took some profits yesterday on the heels ofFriday's poor close and Platinum subscribers were instructed to lightenup. For the session, the Dow was off 32.12 at 933795, the S&P 500was off 3.38 at 1007.10, and the Nasdaq Composite was off 8.01 at1992.24. Volume decreased on the Nasdaq, but increased on the NYSE.Breadth was negative.
There were no economic releases yesterday, so the pre-market futurestook their cue from Europe, causing a soft open from which the indicesnever recovered.
There was a noticeable rotation into defensive plays as TLT (20+ YrUS Govt Bonds) was up 1.25%, XLV (Healthcare) was up 0.80%, and XLU(Utilities) were up 0.21%. Also - consumer staples (XLP +0.08%)outpaced consumer discretionary (XLY -0.91%) while Industrials (XLI)also dropped 0.96%, coinciding with yesterday's defensive theme. Doesthis rotation hold any significance or will it be reversed on today'sTurnaround Tuesday? The trend is up and traders could re-embrace riskat any time.
Partially offsetting the defensive rotation, however, was theoutperformance by small caps. The Russell 2000 was almost flat, losingjust 0.09%.
Energy shares put in a solid day in the face of a soft market as XLEgained 0.43%. The other commodity based sector, Materials (XLB),dropped 1.32% as metal prices fell across the board.
Citigroup economist Steven Wieting said Monday he had raised hisoutlook for S&P 500 operating earnings to $60 a share this year,from a previous outlook of $56, citing "the turn in both financialconditions and cyclical activity indicators." Wieting also lifted hisforecasting team's 2010 outlook to $68 from $62 a share. He noted thelevel of operating profits for companies in the benchmark U.S. stocksindex has risen at a 49% annualized rate in the first half of this yearfrom last year's second half, even while economic activity and salesshrank. "This is actually a hopeful sign for what we can expect fromprofits in the period ahead," wrote Wieting. Profits are still set toslide nearly 3% this year from 2008.
Profit taking was most pronounced in the economically sensitiveareas of financials (XLF -0.42%), retail (XRT -1.94%) and real estate(IYR -1.98%). All were lower on much lighter volume than Friday.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and reports Wednesday, so this could bemarket 'moving' event ahead. Tuesday is also a potential 'TurnaroundTuesday' and Wednesday is another 'Weird Wally Wednesday' both have thepotential of turning the market lower. Some market leaders such GS(Goldman Sachs a/k/a Government Sachs) are acting a little dubious(Negative VR on Friday), but the overall market continues to pushhigher.
Folks, there will be a correction, but what we've learned sinceMarch (recall I flashed an initial TIMER DIGEST 'Buy Signal' on March4) is that this market is clearly climbing a 'Wall of Worry' and isbeing 'engineered' higher. It may be one heck of a bear market rally,but what if we're wrong in that assessment and those who have beenpounding the table regarding the likelihood that we've seen'generational' lows are indeed right? The answer is that there is noway of knowing, so you have to trade the market whether your timeframeis one week or six months.
On some occasions we've seen the market top out in August and turnsouth into the fall - the notorious September/October correction! So wehave reason to be concerned, but that concern may be exaggerated in thecurrent market cycle.
Overall, my view remains that at the very least we're retracing outa 50% correction of the bear market decline, possibly even 61.8% (thefibonacci number) which would place the Dow Industrials between 10,300and 11,300 at some point in coming months. Time cycles presentlyindicate the potential for this market to just about fool everyone.They show upside potential into next summer.
What is a poor trader to do? Very short-term, with the US Dollarsticking its ugly head above water this past week and with the FOMCmeeting ahead, you might want to lock in some profits here and watch.More intermediate plays, however, might be best advised to hold on forthe ride.
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
The Dow Transports underperformed yesterday, falling 38.61 or 1.03%to 3710.97. But remember, the Transports had a great day Friday,rallying 4%. The Airline Index (^XAL) fell 2.5% as oil prices remainstubbornly high.
The Transports hit new intra-day and closing recovery highs onFriday, the highest its been since November. From the low to Friday'shigh, the Transports rallied 26.3% since the July 8 low and 76.9% sincethe March low. It may be time for a correction. Look for support at theold May high of 3458.23 and at the 50 day moving average, currently at3340.
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
The weekly VR Gold Letter focuses on Gold and Gold shares. Theletter is available to Platinum subscribers for only an additional $50per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 per month. Email me atmark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
Precious metals got hit yesterday by falling demand and a rising USDollar. Gold fell 9.80 to 945.60, silver dropped 0.26 to 14.34,platinum lost 19 to 1244, and palladium slipped 1 to 273. Even copper,which hit a recovery high of 2.8465 yesterday morning, settled down0.0150 at 2.7705.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell to 1,068.90 metric tons Friday,down 3.97 metric tons from a day ago, according to the latest data fromthe fund. Holdings have dropped more than 50 metric tons in one monthand now stand at the lowest level since May 13.
I believe we could be mirroring the '1979' pattern, we could belooking at 12-18 months of explosive upside action ahead. Maybe we haveto wait 18 to 24 months and I'm early, but bearish sentiment, let'scall it disbelief, still runs high for Gold. The fact the Gold shareshave been leading the metal higher is a very bullish sign. Gold isvolatile and has been manipulated by the US government for decades.Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in theReagan administration. He is co-author of The Tyranny of GoodIntentions. He can be reached at: PaulCraigRoberts@yahoo.com. Hewrites: "If incompetence in Washington, the type of incompetence thatproduced the current economic crisis, destroys the dollar as reservecurrency, the "unipower" will overnight become a third world country,unable to pay for its imports or to sustain its standard of living. Howlong can the US government protect the dollar's value by leasing itsgold to bullion dealers who sell it, t hereby holding down the goldprice? Given the incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street, ourbest hope is that the rest of the world is even less competent and evenin deeper trouble. In this event, the US dollar might survive as theleast valueless of the world's fiat currencies."
Gold is still not too far from its recent high of 1007.20 fromFebruary 20 and the all time high of 1037 from March 17, 2008. Silverhit its highest level since August 2008 on June 3, marking an 80% fromits November/December 2008 low. My intermediate target for Gold is 1200and my big picture target (possibly within the next two years) is for3000. We could go even higher, but if we think in terms of a 20-year upcycle, i.e., into 2020 there is plenty of time to see this unfold andI'm sure we're going to have to trade it (both long and short) alongthe way. My view is that 1000 will become the new FLOOR for Gold justas 1000 became the new FLOOR for the Dow Industrials when it brokethrough to the upside back in 1982.
One view here holds that deflationary forces will overpowerinflationary forces and Gold will FIRST decline. That may be true, butthe lessons of the 1930s show that gold-mining shares may showextraordinary gains in such a period. For example, between 1930 and1935 Homestake Mining rallied from $80 to $495 per share in adeflationary environment. The answer folks is to hold both physicalgold and gold mining shares to get the best of both worlds, i.e., dowell in a deflationary environment and an inflationary environment.
We hold Gold as a safe-haven asset, a portfolio diversifier, toprotect against inflation and deflation, and, most importantly, toprotect against the debasement of our currency and all currencies (fiatmoney) will lead to their demise. This is why you own Gold. You alsoown Gold as the 'tea parties' in our country are a warning of moretrouble ahead both in terms of a financial crisis but also in terms ofimpending social unrest. During the 1930s during deflation, gold shareswere star performers as the cost of mining gold sank. Silver shouldoutperform during an inflationary period, however.
Silver (spot) touched 16.28 on June 3 while the SLV (ETF) touched15.78. We have unfulfilled potential up to 18.00 on its way to newhighs above 21.00. Support is 1154-1189, 1061-1085 and 961-980.
--------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries rallied yesterday, recovering some of last week's losses,thanks to the weak stock market and a strong US Dollar drawing moneyback into US Treasuries. The long bond future is rose 1 6/64 to 11626/64.
The Federal Reserve will probably allow its $300 billionTreasury-buying program to end over the next six weeks as signs of ahousing recovery prompt the central bank to unwind one its mostaggressive and unusual interventions into financial markets.
This lack of support as the Treasury auctions off $2 trillion ofbonds this fiscal year will likely lead to higher interest rates,unless the economy turns down again.
The Federal Reserve bought $6.6 billion of debt maturing in 2012 and2013. Dealers submitted $22.002 billion in debt to the central bank.The last time the Fed bought from this sector, it purchased about $6.5billion.
The long bond future hit a low of 114 51/64 Friday morning, breakingthrough support at the July 27 low of 114 60/64. Next major support isthe June 11 low of 111 43/64.
Treasuries saw quite a rally recently, with the long bond futurerallying from a low of 111 43/64 on June 11 to the July 8 high of 12123/64. But we must also remember that the long bond future hit a highof 142 60/64 back in December and we have fallen quite dramaticallyfrom that level.
Treasuries have an interesting problem here. If the economycontinues falling, Treasuries should benefit from the Fed keepinginterest rates low and the flight to safety. However, the weak economywill only enlarge the already huge budget deficit, thus brining evenmore supply to market. It appears that Treasuries will be weak, in thelong run, either way thanks to those budget deficits, but could rallyin the short term on a flight to safety.
Though we have recovered somewhat in the last few weeks, the fallingbond market of the last six months is not a good sign. First, risingTreasury rates may cause mortgage rates to rise, hurting the housingmarket which needs all the help it can get. Furthermore, with thegovernment racking up huge deficits on top of its already giganticdebt, higher rates will make its interest payment balloon, increasingthe debt even further.
Despite these events, I believe the financial markets and news arebeing manipulated on an unprecedented scale and, as you know, greedbegets greed. So if financial markets are moving higher and if theperception of improving housing becomes reality, we could see the'recovery' continue despite higher rates. We also cannot dismissgovernment intervention in the housing market. I am quite sure how theywould pull this off short of buying up the supply of housing, but Isure wouldn't put it past them.
Bottom line: I believe interest rates will go higher, but I amofficially on a 'Neutral' signal for the bond market.
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil got hit yesterday by the stronger dollar and a weak stockmarket. Nevertheless, its decline was quite modest. Crude oil fell 0.33to 70.60.
The president of the Organization of the Petroleum ExportingCountries said Sunday that oil prices around $70 a barrel are not bad,according to media reports. Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos is Angola's oilminister in addition to the his duties with the OPEC cartel.
Technicals are positive, so I'm predicting a move to $83.00 a barrelover the near term and we'll take it from there.
But a lot depends on the US Dollar right now with this recent rallyhurting oil slightly.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The US Dollar Index managed a small rally yesterday, continuing fromits big rally on Friday, gaining a marginal 0.281 to 79.256.
Lots of economic news out of Japan. The Dollar is down 0.280 to97.275 against the Yen.
Japanese core machinery orders jumped more than forecast. Coreorders soared 9.7% in June from the previous month, a much biggerincrease than the 2.9% rise expected on average by economists surveyedby Nikkei and Dow Jones Newswires. Core orders exclude often-largeorders for ships and those from electric power companies, which canskew data. Total orders rose 2.3% in June from May, the Cabinet Officesaid. But looking ahead, the data hinted that Japan's recovery path isanything but clear. Orders fell 4.9% in the April-June period from theprevious quarter, although they were forecast to drop 8.6% in thecurrent quarter, the government said, based on its survey of companies.
Separate data from the Ministry of Finance showed Japan'scurrent-account surplus more than doubled on year in June. The 144.4%rise to 1.153 trillion yen ($11.8 billion), also beat forecasts for a39.9% increase. June's rise marked the first increase in the surplus in16 months. Exports fell 37% on year in June, and imports slipped 43.8%.In addition to trade flows, the current account figures track servicesand investment.
In separate data released Monday, Bank of Japan said bank lendingrose 2.1% on year in July. But that slowed from June's 2.4% on-yearincrease, suggesting that companies' need to borrow to fund investmentsin new plants and equipment could be waning. Moreover, the data showedcommercial paper issuance underwritten by banks was down 25.2% on yearin July, a steeper drop than June's 21.8%, indicating that overallcapital requirement on private sector is weakening.
A Positive Volume Reversal ™ was formed in UUP (the long ETF forthe US Dollar Index) on Friday. Obviously, some traders wereanticipating a rally. Also, bearish sentiment continues at extremelyhigh levels for the US Dollar Index and rallies such as we witnessedThursday and Friday have to be expected.
Upside potential COULD be to the 82.00-83.00 range. We'll take itfrom there.
Last week's low was 77.428 in the Dollar Index. A break under thatlevel resumes potential for a possible retest of the big 70.698 lowfrom March 18, 2008, though we first have support at 75.890.
As the market gets more and more comfortable with our economicsituation, the US Dollar declines. As the market crashed, tradersrushed in a flight to safety into the US Dollar. But now, even with theeconomy still in recession, it is no longer in freefall and the stockmarket is rallying. Between the March low and now traders wereconverting their US Dollars back into local currency and preparing tospend of invest their money again.
It is becoming clear that U.S. debt instruments are no longer viewedas the safe haven they once were among foreign investors. Our currencyis paying a price for the liquidity flood and debt issuance beingcreated by the Fed and the Obama administration.
---------------------------------------------
URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
August 3, 2009 Posting
Spot: $48.50 UP 1.50. Bull market high in the cash market was $136.00.
The September Uranium Futures closed at $48.50. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.Confirmation of a bottom is at hand with uranium shares in niceuptrends. We're long one of these in the Platinum service and lookingat others.
---------------------------------------------
IN THE NEWS:
Sugar prices extended their rally Monday. October raw-sugar futureswere last up 6.6% to 22.19 cents a pound on the ICE Futures U.S.,rising above 22 cents for the first time since 1981. It hit an intradayhigh of 22.44 cents a pound.
IPSU and SGG are plays here on a pullback.
Dynegy reported a second-quarter loss of $345 million, or 41 cents ashare, compared with a loss of $272 million, or 32 cents a share, ayear ago. Sales rose 53% to $493 million as increased volume made upfor lower energy prices. Dynegy also confirmed LS Power Associates LPwill buy nine of its U.S. power plants. DYN jumped 15.5%.
Dish Network said its second-quarter net income dropped 81% to $63.4million, or 14 cents a share, as revenue fell 0.4% to $2.9 billion.Dish said it added approximately 26,000 net new subscribers during thequarter, its first quarterly net increase in five quarters. But costsfor programming content, call-center operations, customer retention,and increased personnel, as well as a $196 million hit from Tivolitigation expense, weighed on its profit. Analysts had expected aprofit of 65 cents a share. DISH rallied 4.8%.
McDonald's said Monday that global same-store sales rose 4.3% inJuly. The increase was powered by a 7.2% increase in same-store salesin Europe. Same-store sales in the U.S. and rest of the world were up2.6% and 2.1%, respectively. The fast food retailer noted strong salesgrowth in France and the U.K. and also said its U.S. sales rise wasprimarily due to new products such as McCafe espresso-based coffees.MCD rose 1.9%.
Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy, the largest U.S. electronicsretailer, to a neutral rating from buy. While Best Buy has gained andis expected to continue reaping additional market share from the demiseof former rival Circuit City, it faces increased competition from bothdiscounters and online retailers, Goldman Sachs analyst Matthew Fasslersaid in a report. Best Buy also faces traffic pressures arising fromslowing sales of music and DVDs as well as a maturing video-game cycle,the analyst said. At the same time, the declining average selling priceof flat-panel televisions also hurt transaction amounts while thecompany's aggressively investing in overseas growth as domestic profitmargins appear close to peak levels, he said. BBY fell 5.3%.
Berkshire Hathaway shares were downgraded Monday by analysts atFox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia after a recent rally left the stocktrading in line with historical levels. The analysts, Matthew Carlettiand Lee Feingold, lowered their recommendation on Berkshire stock to inline from outperform. After a recent rally, Berkshire shares trade at1.5 times book value, in line with the stock's five-year average, theanalysts noted. "These are fair valuations at a time when thenon-insurance segments of the business continue to struggle amidst atough economic environment and fell short of our projections in thequarter," Carletti and Feingold wrote in a note to investors. BRK-Alost 3.8% or 4100 to 104,000.
Freddie Mac reported a quarterly profit and said it won't have tohit up the government for more financial assistance, at least for now.Freddie Mac reported second-quarter net income of $768 million lateFriday, compared to a net loss of $9.9 billion during the same period ayear earlier. After a $1.1 billion dividend payment on its seniorpreferred stock owned by the Treasury Department, Freddie reported anet loss of 11 cents per common share. That compares to a net loss$3.14 per common share in the first quarter of 2009, the mortgage giantnoted. Freddie said it had a positive net worth of $8.2 billion at theend of June. That means the company didn't need to ask the governmentfor more money. The latest results include net interest income of $4.3billion and $4.2 billion of gains on the company's derivative portfolioand guarantee asset business. Freddie also set aside $5.2 billion inprovisions to cover credit losses. FRE surged 128.4% to close at 1.69.FNM rallied in sympathy, up 51.5%.
Southwest Airlines said Monday it has submitted a binding cash offerof more than $170 million to acquire, which will be sold at auction aspart of Frontier's bankruptcy case. As part of the offer, Southwestwould acquire about 80% of Frontier's existing Airbus fleet, or 40aircraft, plus all of Lynx, Frontier's short-haul subsidiary. "Webelieve our bid ultimately should be seen as the strongest offer by allinterested parties, including Frontier, its creditors, employees, andcustomers," said Southwest Air's Chief Executive Gary Kelly in aprepared statement. The auction is expected to start on Thursday. LUVdecline 2.6%.
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The Annual Forecast Model (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted at thewebsite - so sign up today! Remember, there is no price too high forgood information! Don't make the mistake of not subscribing. Lastyear's AFM warned in January we were entering a multi-month bearmarket! Gold-bug? Check on the AFM for Gold!
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
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TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available toPlatinum subscribers on the Home Page. We flashed a 'Buy' signal onMarch 4 for stocks and are now on a May 27 'Sell' signal. TIMER DIGESThas named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate MarketTimer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 IntermediateMarket Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYSTSURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMINGAS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the fulllist only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VRList' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com. Canadian shares are listed atthe bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinumwhere you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch thepatterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on theplanet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they areproprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list? VRs are buy and sell triggers and areparticularly useful in defining lows or highs in stocks and stockindexes. Traders find them particularly useful, especially coming offmarket extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRsin conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added aunique technical tool to your arsenal.
What is a Volume Reversal? There are several proprietary subtletiesto the Volume Reversal ™ algorithm, but essentially a VolumeReversal ™ is a change from a Rally day to a Reaction dayaccompanied by a increase of volume or a change from a Reaction day toRally day accompanied by an increase in volume. Volume Reversals ™coming off intermediate lows or highs have greater significance inhelping to define those lows or highs and important pivot points in themarketplace. The Volume Reversals ™ presented here provide you witha unique research tool that may have trading (short-term) significance,but it also may have 'trend changing' (intermediate) significance aswell. The sector Volume Reversals ™ show where big money is possiblyaffecting an entire group of stocks. The stocks listed under the grouphave posted Volume Reversals ™ along with the group as a whole. Theindividual stocks listed have posted Volume Reversals ™ on their ownand are valid plays as well.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please goour Current Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or,if you would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please clickhere. Please note that not all symbols may be currently available.
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Volume Reversals - 8/10/09
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POSITIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
DAY.UN DAYLIGHT RESOURCES TR
PD.UN PRECISION DRILLING TRUST
---------------------------------------------
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
BZC Breeze Eastern Corp
KAMN Kaman Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
SMP Standard Motor Prods
WMCO Williams Controls Inc
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
CBKN Capital Bank Corp Rlghnc
GRAN Bank Of Granite Corp
MNRK Monarch Bank
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
CSNT Crescent Banking Company
PBIB Porter Bancorp Inc
RBCAA Republic Bancorp Inc Cla
BANKING Savings & Loans
BKJ Bancorp of New Jersey Inc
CBNK Chicopee Bancorp Inc
ESSA Essa Bancorp Inc
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
GU Gushan Environmental Energy Li
IOSP Innospec Inc
MACE Mace Security Internat
NOEC New Oriental Energy Chemical C
CHEMICALS Synthetics
SHI Shanghai Petrochemical
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
TISA Top Image Systems Ltd
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information & Delivery Service
GRU Gurunet Corporation
IDC Interactive Data Corporation
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
RTK Rentech Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
PAY VeriFone Holdings Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
DTSI DTS Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Recreational Goods
FUQI Fuqi International Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
KBR KBR Inc.
VSEC Vse Corp
DRUGS Biotechnology
BPAX Biosante Pharmaceuticals
CERS Cerus Corporation
CORT Corcept Therapeutics
CRTX Critical Therapeutics Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
BTUI Btu International Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
BDCO Blue Dolphin Energy Co
DBLE Double Eagle Petroleum
EAC Encore Acquisition
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
BBH Biotech HOLDRS ETF
DBA PowerShares DB Agriculture Fun
EVX Market Vectors Environmental S
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ENSG Ensign Group
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
HNSN Hansen Medical Inc
MDT Medtronic Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Instruments & Supplies
HRC Hill-Rom Holdings` Inc.
IFLO I-Flow Corp
INTERNET Internet Information Providers
TCX Tucows Inc
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
CKSW Clicksoftware Technlgies
RAX Rackspace Hosting
SPRT Supportsoft Inc
LEISURE Lodging
RLH Red Lions Hotel Corp
LEISURE Restaurants
GCFB Granite City Food & Brewery Lt
MCD Mcdonalds Corp
SNS The Steak N Shake Comp
TAST Carrols Restaurant Group Inc.
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
BLD Baldwin Technology Inc A
DRC Dresser-Rand Group Inc
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
CLDN Celadon Group Inc
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
BHO B&H Ocean Carriers Ltd
ONAV Omega Navigation Enterprises I
PRGN Paragon Shipping Inc
SFL Ship Finance Intl Ltd
TGP Teekay LNG Partners LP
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
APWR A-Power Energy Generation Sys
BIP Brookfield Infrastructure Part
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
AER.UN GROUPE-AEROPLAN, INC.
AET.UN ARC ENERGY TRUST
CEW CLAYMORE EQUAL WEIGHT
CJP.UN CLAYMORE JAPAN FUNDAMENTALS
CLO CLAYMORE OIL SANDS SE
CMW.UN CLAYMORE S&P/TSX GLOB MINING
EET ETRUSCAN RESOURCES IN CL '
PZG.UN PARAMOUNT GOLD & SILVER
XSP ISHARES CDN S&P 500 H
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
HWK Hawk Corp
ITA iShares DJ US Aerospace & Def
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Manufacturers - Major
DAI Daimler Ag
TTM Tata Motors Ltd Ads
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
GNTX Gentex Corp
TRW Trw Automotive Hldgs Corp
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
FSS Federal Signal Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
BCA Corpbanca Ads
BLX Banco Latino Americano
BANKING Money Center Banks
WBK Westpac Banking Cp
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
AANB Abigail Adams Natl Bancp
BAYN Bay National Corp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
BXS Bancorpsouth Inc
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
FCFC Firstcity Financial Corp
BANKING Savings & Loans
ASBI Ameriana Bancorp
BBX Bankatlantic Bancorp A
BYFC Broadway Financial Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
BOOT Lacrosse Footwear Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Business/Management Services
CRAI Cra International Inc
HIL Hill International Inc
ICFI ICF International Inc.
IRM Iron Mountain Inc
NSR NeuStar Inc
REIS Reis` Inc.
DRUGS Biotechnology
MIPI Molecular Insight Pharmaceutic
DRUGS Diagnostic Substances
PBIO Pressure BioSciences Inc
DRUGS Drug Delivery
BVF Biovail Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
UTEK Ultratech Inc
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
CKX CKX Lands Inc
EOG Eog Resources Inc
ISRL Isramco Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund E
ADRU BLDRS Europe 100 ADR Index Fun
BDH Broadband HOLDRS ETF
BGY Blackrock International Growth
DGT streetTRACKS Dow Jones Global
DHS WisdomTree High-Yielding Equit
DIA DIAMONDS Trust Series ETF
DPO Dow 30 Enhanced Premium & Inc
DSI iShares KLD 400 Social Index F
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
FSTF First State Financial
MSB Mesabi Trust Cbi
OXPS Optionsxpress Holdings
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
FCSX FCStone Group` Inc.
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
DHIL Diamond Hill Investment Group
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
KO Coca-Cola Co
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Wineries & Distill
BF.A Brown-forman Corp Cl A
LEISURE Restaurants
FRN Friendly Ice Cream Corp
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
AP Ampco-Pittsburgh Corp
IR Ingersoll-rand Ltd Cl A
ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc
JBT John Bean Technologies Corpora
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
DE Deere & Co
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
ANO Anooraq Resources Corp
BBL Bhp Billiton Plc Ads
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
AHGP Alliance Holdings GP LP
GBG Great Basin Gold
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
IPS Ipsco Inc
PKX Posco
STLD Steel Dynamics Inc
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
IOT Income Opportun Rlty Inv
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
ARL American Realty Invest
CALC California Coastal Comm
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
BKRS Bakers Footwear Group Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Auto Dealerships
AN Autonation Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Specialty Retail
TITN Titan Machinery Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
CRNT Ceragon Networks Ltd
ERIC Lm Ericsson Telephone Co
GLW Corning Inc
LLL L-3 Communications Hldgs
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
SMLC Smile Communications
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
TDW Tidewater Inc
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
NWE Northwestern Corp
VVC Vectren Corporation
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
BKH Black Hills Corp
EDN Empresa Distribuildora Comer
ITC ITC Holdings Corp
WHOLESALE Industrial Equipment Wholesale
ARG Airgas Inc
MSM Msc Industrial Direct A
WHOLESALE Medical Equipment Wholesale
PDEX Pro-Dex Inc Co
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WATCHLIST
|HIDE-WATCHLIST|
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