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So, Here's What We've Got


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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 07:57 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive. We're above almost every moving average there is. The 200-day is up trending and we're above it. Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral. If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong? Mark
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#2 NAV

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:08 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.

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#3 gismeu

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:11 AM

This could all end pretty badly.


Yes, it could, B U T what do you do?
Stay on the sidelines? Make day-trades on the long side? Go on holiday?

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#4 NAV

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:14 AM

This could all end pretty badly.


Yes, it could, B U T what do you do?
Stay on the sidelines? Make day-trades on the long side? Go on holiday?

gis


Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://tradernav.blogspot.com

 

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#5 gismeu

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:28 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis
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#6 IndexTrader

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:28 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT

#7 NAV

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:38 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#8 Slothrop

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:44 AM

Most overdone breadth in 23 years.

#9 selecto

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:45 AM

LOL, Mark. Sentiment wise, looks like you are calling the top! :) On the other hand, liquidity is what is gunning the market. When does that ever end?

#10 swinger

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:45 AM

Yesterday the NQ touched the long-term descending channel top at 1638 high. ...and today you guys are just starting to get bullish after fighting the trend all the way up?