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So, Here's What We've Got


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#11 NAV

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:46 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT



We can all sit over a few beers and argue, as to how this is 70s , 1929, 1982...., while it may be none of that. Anyway, i beleive based on my indicators that we are due for a correction and that's how i will be playing it right or wrong.

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#12 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:50 AM

LOL, Mark. Sentiment wise, looks like you are calling the top! :)

On the other hand, liquidity is what is gunning the market.
When does that ever end?


Indeed, I said as much to Kinch this morning.

If I can't see a well supported reason to short this thing, have we stopped the top-pickers? Can we now go down?

Literally, this morning, I said, "I need to pay more attention to the short side right now..."

I'll tell you what I need. I need a change in trend with the red volume exceeding the green volume and with the ARMS over 1.00 and some negative ticks.
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#13 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:52 AM

Yesterday the NQ touched the long-term descending channel top at 1638 high.

...and today you guys are just starting to get bullish after fighting the trend all the way up?


Swinger, I've been a Bull all the way up, with varying degrees of caution.

Mark
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#14 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:55 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


OK, buy right here at 100600 for a day trade, based upon the trend still being up and being oversold on CCI and Stoch.

Hey, it can't be any worse than some of the shorts I tried. ;)
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#15 gismeu

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:55 AM

[/quote] The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ? [/quote] Okay, I shall try Today, Monday and partly Tuesday the market should be weak acc. to my astro analysis, then we should have a move up into opex. Will give better details on Monday. gis
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#16 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:56 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


OK, buy right here at 100600 for a day trade, based upon the trend still being up and being oversold on CCI and Stoch.

Hey, it can't be any worse than some of the shorts I tried. ;)


By the time I wrote that, we were at 100350. FWIW. Now, let's see if the market breaks pattern.

I am NOT trading this. It's just an idea. A test if you will.
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#17 norton

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 08:58 AM

Swinger, I have always admired your work, would like to see you post a lot more often !

Edited by norton, 14 August 2009 - 08:58 AM.

Please, help stamp out vibration.

#18 NAV

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:01 AM


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


Okay, I shall try

Today, Monday and partly Tuesday the market should be weak acc. to my astro analysis, then we should have a move up into opex.
Will give better details on Monday.

gis


So you are asking me why i am not going long, by stating the trend is up. When i ask you to post a trade, you say we are going down next two days :giveup:

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#19 swinger

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:02 AM

Yesterday was a major channel top hit, and we just took out the previous day's low... I would suggest that now might be a pretty good time to be a little bearish...but hey, that's just me.
 

#20 skott

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:07 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark




Who says I'm wrong? lol.