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So, Here's What We've Got


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#21 swinger

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:10 AM

Swinger, I have always admired your work, would like to see you post a lot more often !


Thanks...I really appreciate that.
 

#22 IndexTrader

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:20 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


OK, buy right here at 100600 for a day trade, based upon the trend still being up and being oversold on CCI and Stoch.

Hey, it can't be any worse than some of the shorts I tried. ;)



By the time I wrote that, we were at 100350. FWIW. Now, let's see if the market breaks pattern.

I am NOT trading this. It's just an idea. A test if you will.


You mean it was a paper trade??? :lol:

IT

#23 jmicou

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:22 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark



#24 saltlake

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:22 AM

Its very interesting to sit back and watch sentiment. Dont look at any polls or watch CNBC, just read the boards. ;)

#25 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:31 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


OK, buy right here at 100600 for a day trade, based upon the trend still being up and being oversold on CCI and Stoch.

Hey, it can't be any worse than some of the shorts I tried. ;)


By the time I wrote that, we were at 100350. FWIW. Now, let's see if the market breaks pattern.

I am NOT trading this. It's just an idea. A test if you will.


We broke volume support easily. I'd say that now we can get some selling going, but you know that we're at risk of a dip-buying come-back too.
Mark S Young
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#26 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 09:37 AM

Short the market at appropriate junctures, with proper risk management.



Okay, but why not go long at appropriate junctures???

The trend is still up!!!

gis


The trend is up. True. Given that, at this juncture, can you show me one trade on the long side please ?


OK, buy right here at 100600 for a day trade, based upon the trend still being up and being oversold on CCI and Stoch.

Hey, it can't be any worse than some of the shorts I tried. ;)



By the time I wrote that, we were at 100350. FWIW. Now, let's see if the market breaks pattern.

I am NOT trading this. It's just an idea. A test if you will.


You mean it was a paper trade??? :lol:

IT


Just zeros and ones. :D

It's telling that it didn't work, and that's what I wanted to know. I'm not really interested in trading it yet, but as I said, my disgust with the short side had to be shared with many.

We're all good sentiment indicators sometimes.

Mark
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter

#27 Not Too Swift

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 10:05 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT


Is that GAAP earnings or earnings without bad stuff?
I let the market tell me what to do. The trouble is she mumbles a lot, and I'm hard of hearing.

1576 ONO. Upside down, reverse, inside out, snort...

#28 IndexTrader

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 10:23 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT


Is that GAAP earnings or earnings without bad stuff?


Can't tell you off the top of my head. The numbers are from Elaine Garzarelli. Maybe you can google her and find it.

IT

#29 zoropb

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 10:43 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT


Is that GAAP earnings or earnings without bad stuff?


Can't tell you off the top of my head. The numbers are from Elaine Garzarelli. Maybe you can google her and find it.

IT

So 2007 SPX earnings next year. Um yeah ok. I think someone is smoking crack on that one IT.

Z
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#30 IndexTrader

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Posted 14 August 2009 - 10:46 AM

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark


When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.


This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT


Is that GAAP earnings or earnings without bad stuff?


Can't tell you off the top of my head. The numbers are from Elaine Garzarelli. Maybe you can google her and find it.

IT

So 2007 SPX earnings next year. Um yeah ok. I think someone is smoking crack on that one IT.

Z


What's your earnings forecast Z? :D Garzarelli is pretty good in my opinion...although she obviously could be wrong. But if she's right, or even close, this market likely is headed higher.

IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 14 August 2009 - 10:47 AM.