44 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

The Daily and Weekly MACD are positive.

We're above almost every moving average there is.

The 200-day is up trending and we're above it.

Cumulative breadth is positive. Tick is positive. Most sentiment is neutral.

If you're short for more than a day trade, why and what would make you say you're wrong?

Mark

When many of the market measures register extremes, a pause to refresh is the normal market reaction, if another sustainable leg was due. But for some reason, this market seems to be in a hurry to reach the moon. We all know how this ends, when the masses realize at the same time, that we are not (or we cannot) going up. Market is already showing price exhaustion, but the bullish paticipants are not. This could all end pretty badly.

This market actually has not reached the performance of just the first leg of the 75-76 bull market. Not that this market will end up replicating that market necessarily. But that market is just one example of a market which did not "end pretty badly".

Go back and look at the '82 bull market....no 10% corrections for something like 14 months.

I hear $73 in earnings is possible next year in the SP500. What multiple should be placed on those earnings?

IT

Is that GAAP earnings or earnings without bad stuff?

Can't tell you off the top of my head. The numbers are from Elaine Garzarelli. Maybe you can google her and find it.

IT

So 2007 SPX earnings next year. Um yeah ok. I think someone is smoking crack on that one IT.

Z

What's your earnings forecast Z? Garzarelli is pretty good in my opinion...although she obviously could be wrong. But if she's right, or even close, this market likely is headed higher.

IT

best case number $59 area with one condition ...lots of prayer involved. IT this market can go where it wants for years but it always reverts to reality as it just showed 5 months ago.

Z

[IndexTrader]

best case number $59 area with one condition ...lots of prayer involved. IT this market can go where it wants for years but it always reverts to reality as it just showed 5 months ago.

Z

What's the source of the $59 number?

IT

[zoropb]

best case number $59 area with one condition ...lots of prayer involved. IT this market can go where it wants for years but it always reverts to reality as it just showed 5 months ago.

Z

What's the source of the $59 number?

IT

current top down quarter (as current spx site) =13.94 x historical avg. peak increase =14.77 x4 quarters = 59 again good luck on that one who ever believes it.

Z

[zoropb]

This price right here 995= 15 times earnings for 2011 @ a pace of cranking peak historical earnings for next 2.5 years with no let up. *Does not mean we cannot go loco for a while as we currently are.

[IndexTrader]

Z:

That $59 looks like it might be the 2009 forecast. If it's truly 2010 I think it's way too low. At any rate, what I'm talking about is 2010. Here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg...id=aUbVti8SvAMA

[zoropb]

Z:

That $59 looks like it might be the 2009 forecast. If it's truly 2010 I think it's way too low. At any rate, what I'm talking about is 2010. Here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg...id=aUbVti8SvAMA

Yes that estimate is for an amazing unrealistic rise in the next 2 quarters just to get to 59. HOW? What is the catalyst? We already cut the heck out of jobs, lots of the fat, forwarded house sales, cars sales and that is how you got to these "good beat the estimate" numbers in the first place. Lets see next earnings when they come out and by then we will see if we get close to 59 pace.

So we have two choices believe stock sales people estimates who never lie or peak historical pace in earnings best case. I will go with Plan B.

Edited by zoropb, 14 August 2009 - 01:09 PM.

[IndexTrader]

Z:

That $59 looks like it might be the 2009 forecast. If it's truly 2010 I think it's way too low. At any rate, what I'm talking about is 2010. Here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg...id=aUbVti8SvAMA

Yes that estimate is for an amazing unrealistic rise in the next 2 quarters just to get to 59. HOW? What is the catalyst? We already cut the heck out of jobs, lots of the fat, forwarded house sales, cars sales and that is how you got to these "good beat the estimate" numbers in the first place. Lets see next earnings when they come out and by then we will see if we get close to 59 pace.

So we have two choices believe stock sales people estimates who never lie or peak historical pace in earnings best case. I will go with Plan B.

The last quarter of this year we will begin to focus on the 2010 earnings, not the 2009 earnings that you're focusing on. But I'm firmly convinced that you won't be believing any of this anyway. So let's leave it like this...if $70 comes in next year, stocks are going higher, corrections notwithstanding.

IT

[Not Too Swift]

Here is a link for Garzarelli:
http://seekingalpha....e-right-pundits

Here is the link to the S&P earnings spreadsheet:
http://www2.standard...SP500EPSEST.XLS

You can judge for yourself about as reported vs. operating earnings. The difference is the difference between a PE of 127 vs. 25.

I know the argument that corporations are taking all their losses now. So read the bolded commentary in that spreadsheet. It says sales are way down.

Garzarelli is clearly talking about operating earnings, and she is forecasting rosy scenario.

[zoropb]

Z:

That $59 looks like it might be the 2009 forecast. If it's truly 2010 I think it's way too low. At any rate, what I'm talking about is 2010. Here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg...id=aUbVti8SvAMA

Yes that estimate is for an amazing unrealistic rise in the next 2 quarters just to get to 59. HOW? What is the catalyst? We already cut the heck out of jobs, lots of the fat, forwarded house sales, cars sales and that is how you got to these "good beat the estimate" numbers in the first place. Lets see next earnings when they come out and by then we will see if we get close to 59 pace.

So we have two choices believe stock sales people estimates who never lie or peak historical pace in earnings best case. I will go with Plan B.

The last quarter of this year we will begin to focus on the 2010 earnings, not the 2009 earnings that you're focusing on. But I'm firmly convinced that you won't be believing any of this anyway. So let's leave it like this...if $70 comes in next year, stocks are going higher, corrections notwithstanding.

IT

IT it is not a matter of believing it is a matter of show me the money. If you show me how it can be done with some kind of catalyst and some numbers that beat the normal peak to peak pace I will buy it until then I am going by historical peak to peak earnings pace best case scenario vs. some fantasy number cranked out by the sales force of a brokerage firm. Just to get to year end $59 earnings we would need a 17.8% per quarter pace for next two. Man that is a tuff enough pill to swallow let alone the 70 next year. Even the gang at S and P has it at 54 for year end as of now.

[IndexTrader]

Here is a link for Garzarelli:
http://seekingalpha....e-right-pundits

Here is the link to the S&P earnings spreadsheet:
http://www2.standard...SP500EPSEST.XLS

You can judge for yourself about as reported vs. operating earnings. The difference is the difference between a PE of 127 vs. 25.

I know the argument that corporations are taking all their losses now. So read the bolded commentary in that spreadsheet. It says sales are way down.

Garzarelli is clearly talking about operating earnings, and she is forecasting rosy scenario.

Garzarelli actually uses something like 15 indicators in her forecasts. You can read about it here:

http://www.garzarelli.com/

According to info from her site, she uses operating earnings.

Nice info Swift. Those are some good links.

IT