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True unemployment in excess of 20%


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#1 nimblebear

nimblebear

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Posted 15 August 2009 - 08:56 PM

John Williams from Shadow Government Statistics has done an excellent job of capturing all the quietly manipulated data changes made throughout the years and he reconstructs many "Officially released Stats" to represent what they should be - had the manipulators not skewed the data. John's chart below includes the BLS U-3 data (red), U-6 data (grey) and the SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate (blue) which reflects current BLS unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" which were defined away during the Clinton Administration. These estimates are then added to the existing BLS U-6 unemployment figure to provide us with a True unemployment picture - which is > 20 today. To me this seems much more consistent with what I've been seeing at many businesses I go to every day and see all of the layoffs I've seen over the past 2 years, and looking at things like capacity utilization (around 65%), and how much the car industry has fallen from its peak (21 million units annnualized, vs now we have 9 million units maybe if we are lucky), BDI down 36% from its recent peak 2 months ago, foreclosures 32% higher than a year ago at this time, which was a record back then, and then simple things like the entire PJM electric grid network (13 states) now running at 100,000 megawatts on a peak day, where it was running at 130,000 megawatts on a peak day over a year ago. Folks if energy usage being down over 30% doesn't tell you the economy is major league in the crapper than I dont know what else will. So to me 20 % unemployment seems to much better reflect all the vacant signs, for lease signs, foreclosures, shutdown factories, and half built subdivisions, than the less than 10% that we are currently being told to make us feel better than we would if we knew it was actually above 20%. People might actually feel like this is a real depression, instead of ignoring the facts and blissfully whistling past the graveyard, hoping the boogeyman stays away. This is why this current rally won't last, and why we will see a resumption of the downtrend continue by early fall if not sooner. Duetche bank had agreat report, about the world seeing 3 U shaped recessions in a row. Much more graciously putting it than calling it a pure world wide depression, despite the massive rallies we've seen internationally. Structurally, fundementally, economically, financially, the current rally simply doesn't justify the prices being paid for the earnings that will no doubt continue to disappoint for the next 18 months going forward for nearly every single industry. We've now seen just about every trash stock imaginable have its heyday for a few months, with 1000% or more rallies, and virtually all now are rolling over and beginning the next collapse down. The big indexes will begin that same journey soon. The psychology of it is just perfect as many people are acting like things are starting to recover, and they know that 10% unemployment really isn't that bad, and nothing like the great depression, so the buckle down and hunker down mentality is being thrown out already, and the so called new frugal, is going to be tossed away too as more americnas find new ways to increase their debt loads. Now really if they all knew it was more 20% unemployment they all might be acting differently than they are. Knowing the truth might actually be painful, but make us better off in the long run. But you all know the government feels we can't handle the truth, so they lie. <_<

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