19 replies to this topic

[JAP]

Very nice job! Thanks for taking the time to post all those charts.

[arbman]

stickan,

Nice post. The work by Sergej Tarasovs at timingsolutions is most interesting. [img]http://img229

The work he is doing is not only interesting, it's most impressive. And the software is developing under your eyes. On the forum someone súggests something and within a week the software is updated sometimes the next day.
It's only possible because it's a one man job and the work of a very dedicated and extremly intellignet person and with talent in so many different fields of technical analysis. I am soo impressed.
If you have the theoretical back ground, you can do anything with this software.
And if you don't much is automated and simplified and he's got articles on everything.
So you will also learn a lot using it.
I have no interest in the software or his company I am just a satisfied customer.
I will try to post some more in the future.

Stickan, plan a trip to my office in later September and I will show you something better...

The only difference is we are not developing a software to sell but for our own clients and funds...

I don't believe in selling a retail software for trading purposes, you are effectively killing any edge the software may ever have.

Best,
-arb

[zman]

fantastic stuff and thanks for sharing....

[Stickan]

stickan,

Nice post. The work by Sergej Tarasovs at timingsolutions is most interesting. [img]http://img229

The work he is doing is not only interesting, it's most impressive. And the software is developing under your eyes. On the forum someone súggests something and within a week the software is updated sometimes the next day.
It's only possible because it's a one man job and the work of a very dedicated and extremly intellignet person and with talent in so many different fields of technical analysis. I am soo impressed.
If you have the theoretical back ground, you can do anything with this software.
And if you don't much is automated and simplified and he's got articles on everything.
So you will also learn a lot using it.
I have no interest in the software or his company I am just a satisfied customer.
I will try to post some more in the future.

Stickan, plan a trip to my office in later September and I will show you something better...

The only difference is we are not developing a software to sell but for our own clients and funds...

I don't believe in selling a retail software for trading purposes, you are effectively killing any edge the software may ever have.

Best,
-arb

Arbman,
I don't agree.
Most people don't know what they don't know, hence they cannot use a software like yours or Sergeyjs. there are so many "solutions " out there and there is no holy grail. so even if Sergej developed the software that would solve all the problems of trading 99% of the worlds population wouldn't know how to make money out of it.
We have to remember - it's not the software, or the analysis that makes money it's the person who uses it who does.
Timing slution for example can never be automated. It can only be used by the handful of traders, that can use the full potential, hence it will never have great influence on the stockmarket. And if you understand the core of the software which is from the beginning astrological (it has moved over to cyclical - but they are interrelated, so it's natural), you also understand that there is not much you can do - long term - about influencing the stockmarket movements. Most of us sits on a "secret" that makes us money and we thing that if we give it away it will destroy the market - it is not true.
I have been sharing my "secrets" in denmark an d sweden on dsicussion forums and I would estimate that about 2% of theose who read my analyses understands what I am saying and pehaps 1% beievs it and half of those who believs in it will act on it. I have come to the opinion that it is not knowledge that moves markets, but emotions and money. Hence it's risk free to share ones secrets.
A good exmple is Thimothy Morge http://marketgeometry.com/ who re-invented the Pitchfork (Median lines) and educated people for free many years in the late 90ties and the beginning of 2000 - the sharpest tool in technical analysis and actually the only tool you need to make money. It didn't change anything. Today, still, most people have not heard about it. Another secret that does not make inpact on the market but makes money to the people that uses it.
Besides, when the masses flock around stockcharts.com and 100s of oscillators and believe that it is the solution on how to make money I cannot imagine another software like Sergejs will change anyting.


I don't believe in selling a retail software for trading purposes, you are effectively killing any edge the software may ever have.

Also, it depends on what you want to do - sell software or trade. Any of those choices may make you a millionaire - again - it depends on who we are and what we want to do with our lives....

But I would love to come by you office, send me an email to stickans@gmail.com and tell me where to go - not September - November is a much better month to travel....
I might show up

[rkd80]

Stickan, Nice work as others have said, I am curious about the 5 most prominent cycles using advanced matt an fourier analysis chart. Does the amplitude mean anything? Several charts of yours are projecting possible bottoming action around late fall, but it looks as if the March bottom does not break. Can you clarify on whether the time/cycle analysis suggests the March bottom breaks or not. My stuff seems to entirely agree with the prospect, along with the fact that August 2009 is an important top. I just cannot figure out, granted its not crucial, what kind of bottom to expect in the upcoming months.

[JimBecker17]

This is a great post - thanks for sharing all this info! Other cycles methods have pointed to Aug top cooresponding to the Lunar after Solar eclipses, and Fib/Gann times. In Fib months we are .382 length Bear market of the Bull market from Mar03 to Oct07, Fib 21 months from Oct07 high. This is in addition to all the various Price Fib relationships at this juncture. And the fractal pattern is potentally following the Sep01 to Spring02 as the Porsche guy said. If the analogy continues we will probably get a couple week decline followed by rally to end of first week in Sept, when all the dip buyers will be buying for the Bull Market. Then the big downleg while Mercury is retrograde and the other events. Perhaps solid time to get long late October according to Fib time as well. This has 55 and 34 week Fib links, dual Fib 42 week on Oct30th. I don't trade based on astro, but find it very interesting how it seems to make things fit. The board is much better now under adult supervision after Bill Murray apparently skimmed the Babe Ruth bars out of the pool. Thanks Mark.

[Stickan]

Stickan,

Nice work as others have said, I am curious about the 5 most prominent cycles using advanced matt an fourier analysis chart. Does the amplitude mean anything? Several charts of yours are projecting possible bottoming action around late fall, but it looks as if the March bottom does not break.

Can you clarify on whether the time/cycle analysis suggests the March bottom breaks or not. My stuff seems to entirely agree with the prospect, along with the fact that August 2009 is an important top. I just cannot figure out, granted its not crucial, what kind of bottom to expect in the upcoming months.

From what I posted on cycles, Sergey's chart's don't discuss amplitude and I have not found information on the turbocycle either, but this is what he writes in an article (my bold marking):

Weighting: In the previous example the same weights were used for all three cycles. Imagine that you know that one of the cycles is more important than others. You can assign to that cycle double meaning (same period, same phase, double amplitude). It leads to a different appearance of the resulting curve. Thus, playing with cycle weights we can significantly improve our superposition curve.

But he also writes

MESA - cycles in dynamics:
The most common misunderstanding regarding MESA is the statement that MESA allows to calculate cycles more accurately. This is not true. MESA allows to observe how the cycles live, how they appear - grow - disappear. Usually cycles live not too long except the fundamental cycles such as Annual and business cycles. The cycle's life is similar to success of some pop music artists: after some glorious time (because their music is in tune with some public emotion) they are forgotten by general public A very similar thing happens to the cycles: the cycle appears, then it becomes a leading cycle on the market, then other cycles appear, and that leading cycle becomes a memory....We need to accept this fact no matter it is convenient for us or not. The latest most powerful cycle is called a DOMINANT cycle. Pay attention to the LATEST. This method helps us to switch our focus from searching some Magic Cycle that works forever to investigation of dominant cycles. We need to catch them as early as possible, while it is still active in the chaotic waves of the stock market ocean.

Thus we do not know if the bottom of the cycle you asked about is as important then as it is now. Hence we don't know about the ampltude and not if it is lower then the march low.

But check THIS out!
I used the spectrum module to specifically track the 6 most important cycles between 1928 and 2009

In the upper right corner you can see the length of the cycle and how amplitude weight is divided among cycles in the composite cycle.
Since these cycles are dominant now - I presume that march low will be broken - interpreted from this chart.

But what strikes me is how ALL cycles start moving down at the top of the pricechart - in 2007!
And that they will do so until "2" in 2011.
If that is true - breaking the march low, will be the least of our problems.

[inamosa]

Brilliant analysis...although I disagree, and I don't think we've seen a long-term top last week Maybe an intermediate-term top but I expect last week's highs to be exceeded well before the end of the year Really like your posts, stickan, although they don't come as often as I'd like...you're simply in a different league than most of us here, myself included

[rkd80]

Stickan, Thanks for the response regarding amplitude, I find the cycle chart to be quite telling. When was the last that all the cycles aligned so perfectly together? I see a glimpse of the 1930s and what appears to be cycles aligning to the upside, but am curious as to how 1929 looked. Yes, you are absolutely right...breaking the march low will definitely be the least of our troubles if we are scheduled to bottom in 2 years. Although the possibility of reliving the late 1930s is entirely plausible thus putting us in a massive deer market for the next several years. I suppose, either way you look at it - people are likely to get hurt and get hurt big time. It upsets me every time I hear people putting their 401ks back into the market. rkd

[arbman]

I agree with most of you are saying, but the world's wealth is controlled by less than 10% of the population, the richest is actually the 2% of the population. So, when you share openly a trading software, you are essentially letting the 2% completely work against all these masses who are blindly following the software...

The richest rich is not dumb, they would not be rich otherwise, if they ever find that an idea is catching up, they do let it run for a while until they position themselves to profit handsomely. It is better to not give your edge to the masses, it will eventually stop working...

But I would love to come by you office, send me an email to stickans@gmail.com and tell me where to go - not September - November is a much better month to travel....
I might show up flowers.gif

I have a few new potential clients, most of our capacity is filled up by a few accredited or institutional clients, I will email you... Thanks for the interest.

Edited by arbman, 18 August 2009 - 01:47 AM.