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Martin Armstrong: Dow 30,000+ by 2015.75


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#1 Russ

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Posted 29 August 2009 - 03:57 AM

Mr. Armstrong is looking at the 21 year cycle from the 1994.25 low which takes it to 2015.75 for a major high in the Dow etc. He thinks the high we saw in 2007 does not line up cyclically as a major high. The Dow will be a hedge on inflation as the value of the dollar dives in his view. So "you know who" may live to see his Epicenter yet!

http://www.martinarm...y-2015-0809.pdf


Second article on Cycles is also interesting...


http://www.martinarm...ective-0809.pdf
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#2 Cirrus

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Posted 29 August 2009 - 09:37 AM

Thanks Russ! I enjoy reading Armstrong's stuff.

#3 HoseB

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Posted 29 August 2009 - 09:42 AM

We'll see Dow 100,000 later as the currency gets wiped out... won't be the same as "making money".
40,000 headmen couldn't make me change my mind....

#4 inamosa

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Posted 29 August 2009 - 09:52 AM

Thanks Russ! I enjoy reading Armstrong's stuff.


Yeah, me too
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#5 blackprince

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Posted 29 August 2009 - 05:10 PM

Thanks from me also.

#6 Russ

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Posted 30 August 2009 - 12:12 AM

Just to clarify these Armstrong postings. While I believe that Martin Armstrong has been unjustly treated by the US Justice department and the financial community at large that is just my opinion. Armstrong's legal status is a different issue than whether he is a good analyst or not, anyone who goes back and looks at the man's record of forecasting should be impressed with his work and therefore want to learn more about the markets from him. I believe it is valuable to look at other's views on the market and compare and contrast them to your view and or the view's of other analysts you may be following. It is a multidimentional approach, similar to having 'more than one tool' to get the job done, after all if you know it all then why do you want to come onto a bulletin board to read what others think? ;)

Edited by Russ, 30 August 2009 - 12:15 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#7 milbank

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Posted 30 August 2009 - 10:55 AM

Russ, between the print itself and all his "off topic" comments, his pdf's are a bit to slog through, so I have this question that I did not leave the article clearly addressed. . . is he changing his expectation that the equity markets' low will come in 2013. It seem like he saying that it may have already happened in March. Am I correct in regarding that?

"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw


"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe


#8 skott

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Posted 30 August 2009 - 03:04 PM

I find him hard to read

#9 CallMeIshmael

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Posted 30 August 2009 - 04:27 PM

We'll see Dow 100,000 later as the currency gets wiped out... won't be the same as "making money".

Dow 100,000 huh? Why not a trillion? This sounds like 1999 redux. Face it guys. What we are living through here is the implosion of a credit bubble at least three quarters of a century old. It can be argued that it's over two centuries old. That is quite an implosion. It seems to me not too likely to lead to a quick reflation. More likely we are on the brink of the precipice here. Since our fiat currency is not backed by anything resembling real money, it consists entirely of debt. In the face of that credit implosion the only reasonable outcome is runaway deflation, not inflation. Anyway, that's how I see it.

#10 linrom1

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Posted 30 August 2009 - 05:40 PM

I got a big problem with Armstrong's reasoning. He is forecasting simultaneous stock market top and peak in Economic Confidence Model in 2015. For one thing, he completely ignores his own Economic Confidence Model's low in 2011. Furthermore, he claims that bull markets move in 7,11,21 year cycles. If that is the case, when was the last bull market top preceding 1994 bottom----1990, 1987, 1973, I am running out of possibilities.

Edited by linrom1, 30 August 2009 - 05:48 PM.

Pax Americana... ♫ nada como los Ramones ♪ ♬... !PLAY ME !

America still pretends it is not a bankster-controlled despotic regime, in which the wealth of the middle class is funneled every day into the Wall Street/Propaganda ponzi- ZH