14 replies to this topic

[Russ]

Russ, between the print itself and all his "off topic" comments, his pdf's are a bit to slog through, so I have this question that I did not leave the article clearly addressed. . .
is he changing his expectation that the equity markets' low will come in 2013. It seem like he saying that it may have already happened in March. Am I correct in regarding that?

Milbank,

I don't think Armstrong ever said the stock market would go down into 2013, over the past months all the articles I have read he wrote that it would likely bottom in 2010 (April) which is 31 month from the top in 2007. One of the last articles points out that the March low was 2X8.6 months - 17.2 months from the top in 2007 (March 6 overshot that cycle by 8.6 days I think he said). He has detailed that the pi cycles are fractals that run from years even down to seconds.

It is Terry Laundry's T theory work that is calling for a low in the 2013 area as well as some other cycle work and my own oscillator.

Armstrong's latest writings at www.martinarmstrong.org are suggesting that we will have a test of support or possibly new lows next spring in April (which is a Pi date according to him). For some reason he does not think the 2011 June date on the confidence model is going to be the stock market low, although that part of the cycle was in 2002 and other times. He did mention one other part of the economy that could bottom in 2011, I don't recall what i was right now, I will have to go back an look. Of one thing you can be sure, he understands his pi model better than anyone.

Edited by Russ, 30 August 2009 - 09:12 PM.

[Russ]

I got a big problem with Armstrong's reasoning. He is forecasting simultaneous stock market top and peak in Economic Confidence Model in 2015. For one thing, he completely ignores his own Economic Confidence Model's low in 2011. Furthermore, he claims that bull markets move in 7,11,21 year cycles. If that is the case, when was the last bull market top preceding 1994 bottom----1990, 1987, 1973, I am running out of possibilities.

He has not ignored 2011, if you go and read the latest articles (fresh from behind the bars ) he mentions 2011 as a likely low as shown below from www.martinarmstrong.org


http://www.martinarm...ch-5000-809.pdf

"In the next leg down into 2011, we will see the states start to swing into real and profound economic chaos. They cannot meet their promised pensions to workers and the health care costs are rising. They will now turn to local property taxes that are rising empirically, but when property values dropped, the taxes did not. So the effective tax rate has already risen as a percent of total household income. This will have a broader impact upon real estate causing it to lag behind in the so called inflation boom. "



I am not sure about his reasoning on the cycles, you make a good point but I am sure he has reasoned it out, we just don't know everything he know. I did read something of his that stated the low in the 1970's was really a different year than 1974 base on some technical argument I think.

Anyway it his call not mine, but I think he is worth paying attention to obviously, even if he is stunted by not having his AI computer.

Edited by Russ, 30 August 2009 - 09:28 PM.

[Russ]

We'll see Dow 100,000 later as the currency gets wiped out... won't be the same as "making money".

Dow 100,000 huh? Why not a trillion? This sounds like 1999 redux. Face it guys. What we are living through here is the implosion of a credit bubble at least three quarters of a century old. It can be argued that it's over two centuries old. That is quite an implosion. It seems to me not too likely to lead to a quick reflation. More likely we are on the brink of the precipice here. Since our fiat currency is not backed by anything resembling real money, it consists entirely of debt. In the face of that credit implosion the only reasonable outcome is runaway deflation, not inflation. Anyway, that's how I see it.

The difference between now the the past centuries great depression was that now we have a currency which is not backed by gold so they can just keep printing which they could not do then. So hyper-inflation before a final collapse is possible in theory. Do you think the biggest empire in history is going to go down without a fight?

[goldswinger]

We'll see Dow 100,000 later as the currency gets wiped out... won't be the same as "making money".

Dow 100,000 huh? Why not a trillion? This sounds like 1999 redux. Face it guys. What we are living through here is the implosion of a credit bubble at least three quarters of a century old. It can be argued that it's over two centuries old. That is quite an implosion. It seems to me not too likely to lead to a quick reflation. More likely we are on the brink of the precipice here. Since our fiat currency is not backed by anything resembling real money, it consists entirely of debt. In the face of that credit implosion the only reasonable outcome is runaway deflation, not inflation. Anyway, that's how I see it.

The difference between now the the past centuries great depression was that now we have a currency which is not backed by gold so they can just keep printing which they could not do then. So hyper-inflation before a final collapse is possible in theory. Do you think the biggest empire in history is going to go down without a fight?

No, and that is the scary part, I can see gold confiscation, martial law and perhaps a significant war again to unite the masses........just to change the playing field. Changing the playing filed is a standard operating procedure in wars, competitive situations and also deep economic predicaments.

GS.

[dasein]

the first step is usuallly fascism, and we are already in that first step with the suspension of the rule of law starting in 2008. just from a practical standpoint, there are always ways to keep your money safe, that exist for those in power - watch what they do. probably, we will have to get a war too - not the afghanistan/iraq stuff, but something more meaningful. Im getting senile with names, but our former Russian member from SD said it would be the US and Russia - I dont think so, but I dont know whom it will be.