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USD Dollar Index


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#1 SilentOne

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Posted 21 September 2009 - 05:22 PM

Dead on a 40 and 80 week lows. The USD should rally hard from here. Much like it did from the summer of last year. This should be interesting if the 4.5 and 9 year lows are already in last year. The USD is everything to these markets. Everything. If you know what it will do next, and you will be golden. If the USD can't rally much from such a cycle low or say the bounce is weak and we take out the current lows with momentum, then it tells you alot about what is coming (more and more inflation). cheers, john USD_weekly_20_week_cycles.png

Edited by SilentOne, 21 September 2009 - 05:27 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#2 Lysis

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Posted 21 September 2009 - 11:47 PM

John, what are you seeing as the dominant cycle for the US dollar? 20 weeks?

#3 SilentOne

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Posted 22 September 2009 - 09:22 AM

hi Lysis, I see the 20 week cycle as the dominant cycle and the one to trade. It looks like the actual cycle runs 18 - 20 weeks. Note how the 20 week low failed in April this year confirming the equity rally and bull move in just about everything. So I had a cycle low for the USD pegged some time late summer (also why I was careful with pms and didn't know which way that market would go). The USD is overdue for a 40 and 80 week low. If the USD continues to behave so poorly, one has to conclude that much more weakness is coming down the road. Do you or anyone reading this thread have access to USD Index files in CSV format? cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 22 September 2009 - 09:26 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#4 SilentOne

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Posted 23 September 2009 - 02:17 PM

Added an inital position in UUP here at 22.61 this afternoon. My mental stop is a Euro (EURUSD) close over $1.50. Will add on confirmation of a reversal in precious metals. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 23 September 2009 - 02:21 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#5 Lysis

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Posted 24 September 2009 - 10:48 PM

Added an inital position in UUP here at 22.61 this afternoon. My mental stop is a Euro (EURUSD) close over $1.50. Will add on confirmation of a reversal in precious metals.

cheers,

john



Good trade, John. Hopefully this doesn't reverse at 22.95-23. I'm thinking very short term here.

#6 SilentOne

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Posted 25 September 2009 - 09:20 AM

hi Lysis,

Hopefully this doesn't reverse at 22.95-23. I'm thinking very short term here.


Yes, one has to expect a retest or new lows for UUP. I see the CADUSD bouncing off a trendline this morning. I'm looking to sell the CAD here next week if this does prove to be a good turn in all risk assets. I'll be adding to UUP then. Expect major volatility soon.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 25 September 2009 - 09:23 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#7 SilentOne

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Posted 25 September 2009 - 12:56 PM

There seems to be some skepticism for a USD low here. I don't think I can forecast the currency outcome until next year, but one thing I know is this. Cyclically, a Hurst 40 and 80 week nest of lows are very good trading points for markets. An example is the $SPX and its early March low. That was an 18 month low (80 week cycle). So whatever the USD does from this low will not be trivial. It either makes a strong bounce and confirms that a major cycle low was made last year, or it bounces for a few months and then resumes its longer term downtrend into a future low.

You will probably know by mid-October the scale of the coming USD bounce.

My read is that the EUR/USD pair still has to make its 4.5 and 9 year lows next summer. And thus why I am generally bearish equities until we get past that point in time.

cheers,

john

P.S. Chart borrowed from here.

http://astrocycle.net/USD.php?DIV=FX

USDDaily_40_and_80_week_lows.png

Edited by SilentOne, 25 September 2009 - 12:58 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#8 SilentOne

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Posted 25 September 2009 - 01:07 PM

I also want to add that I will be putting funds into a currency hedge fund (mean reversion strategy) for the first at the end of the month. There will be major volatility coming and I think it will be a good way to diversify our investments. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#9 SilentOne

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 10:50 AM

The $CDN is running out of real estate. Should have implications for commodities, precious metals, the USD, crude etc. And of course the global economic recovery prospects. Whatever is coming should be apparent once that trendline breaks. A cycle low is due early Nov. Looks like an ending diagonal forming (but I don't see the typical 3 wave affair per EW). Technicals seems to be confirming this possibility. Hurst proposed that you could look at technical patterns and decide whether they would work or fail based on the cycle situation and the cycle phasings at hand. We'll see. cheers, john CDN_Dollar_Oct_2009_daily.png

Edited by SilentOne, 05 October 2009 - 10:53 AM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#10 SilentOne

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Posted 05 October 2009 - 02:25 PM

Buying more USD here in trading accounts. Today's purchase was at 1.0725 CADUSD or 0.9324 USDCAD (spot trading at 0.9340). Also bought last week near 0.93 and will add towards the end of the week as well. This week should be a bottom for the CADUSD pair (or top in the chart shown previously) in the current Hurst 20 and 40 week cycles. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 05 October 2009 - 02:30 PM.

"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain