20 replies to this topic

[SilentOne]

Added an inital position in UUP here at 22.61 this afternoon. My mental stop is a Euro (EURUSD) close over $1.50. Will add on confirmation of a reversal in precious metals.

I've cut my position selling UUP @ 22.68 this morning. Although this week may provide a high of some kind for currencies/precious metals, for now the gold stocks are saying I am wrong. The USD is one troubling story.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 06 October 2009 - 08:45 AM.

[mss]

Hi John, FWIW, I am looking for Gold to hit 1060ish +/- and Silver 1850ish before a correction. If silver breaks 19.00, I expect 22+ real quick. Thanks for all you informative posts. mss

[SilentOne]

hi Scott, Although anyone riding PMs into a high level like this must be pleased, investing/trading this market right now is not going to be easy. If a market is not doing what I expect it to, then I'd rather just watch with most of my money parked safe and wait. I find it much less stressful that way. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 06 October 2009 - 10:59 AM.

[SilentOne]

The $CDN either topped today (overnight hit $0.95), or it will come by Friday. Precious metals should follow and then equities. cheers, john

[stocks]

The $CDN either topped today (overnight hit $0.95), or it will come by Friday. Precious metals should follow and then equities.

cheers,

john

John,

Doesn't gold making new highs so late in the 56 week cycle portend a shallow correction and explosive out of the cycle bottom?

mike

[SilentOne]

hi mike,

Doesn't gold making new highs so late in the 56 week cycle portend a shallow correction and explosive out of the cycle bottom?

That's quite true from a cyclic point of view. The tricky part is seeing where and how the correction comes and then to have to guts to buy it. I say that because the correction may be sharp but only to HUI 350, or a Gann level I watch at 323. And then the correction may not come until later. But the longer term cycle low is in no doubt.

No way to tell what comes in the near term, but I live and die by the 56 week cycle. It kept me out of the worst gold bear market this decade and now I will look for places to get long once again.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 07 October 2009 - 03:00 PM.

[SilentOne]

The USD is overdue now for a 40 and 80 week nest of lows. Although I've labelled the cycles at 40 weeks, actual is running about 41 weeks currently which is how they are indicated. I don't know when the turn will be made, but I predict it will be a stampede once it is made. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 14 October 2009 - 01:22 PM.

[mss]

Hi John,
FWIW, I am looking for Gold to hit 1060ish +/- and Silver 1850ish before a correction. If silver breaks 19.00, I expect 22+ real quick.
Thanks for all your informative posts.
mss

Well we got the 1060++, now I wait on the 18.50 silver, maybe a little greedy??
Thanks fot the up date on the dollar above.
best to you,
Scott

[SilentOne]

hi Scott, I'm not sure silver will hit $18.50. Don't ask me where I think it is going into next year, but I'll add that I am not bullish on the metal for the moment. I say this because it is putting in a high near what should have been a 56 week cycle low. As for UUP, I bought new positions again this morning. 2.40 - 2.45. Buying the trendline and waiting to see if there will be some fireworks. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 15 October 2009 - 12:24 PM.

[SilentOne]

There is an argument for a crash scenario here. The reason is that far too many are positioned on the weak US dollar trade (the supposed new carry trade). Well if the US buck rallies here, it will create havoc. Looking at volatility still being way down, and a potential 3-4 week decline for many assets based on the cycles I follow, it could be a very fast move. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 20 October 2009 - 10:49 AM.