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The Ord Oracle 4/20/4


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

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Posted 20 April 2004 - 10:18 AM

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For 30 to 90 days horizon: Short S&P on 4/6/04 at 1148.17.
Short term trades, one day to one-week horizon: Flat.We have "800" phone update that cost $2.00 a min. and billed to a credit card. Call (1-970-224-3981) for sign up. We update Eastern time at 9:45; 11:30; 1:30; 3:30 and 4:00. Question? Call me (402) 486-0362.

What to expect now: The high volume and wide price spread off of the high of March 5 down to the low of March 11 signaled the up-trend had ended. The rally back to the 1150 area was a low volume retracement and the place to look for a short sell signal. A bearish candlestick pattern called a "Three Gap Play" was trigger on the third gap that appeared on April 2 at the 1150 level. The Third gap (called an Exhaustion Gap) ended the up-move. "Three Gap Plays" have a minimum downside target from where the first gap appeared. The first gap appeared near the 1090 level and that is our first downside target. The McClellan Summation index is trending down and implies the trend is down for now. Today's volume was light and was an inside day and is a neutral condition. Most of our indicators we follow are just neutral. Nothing new to add and we expect that in general the S&P should move lower to our fist target near the 1090 level. We are short the S&P cash at 1148.17.

Nasdaq Composite: A "Three Gap Play" was also triggered on the Nasdaq with the final "Exhaustion Gap" appearing on 4/2. On 4/5 the Nasdaq traded above the previous swing high of 3/5 on a 17% decrease in volume and then closed below the 3/5 high, creating a bearish "Upthrust". For a sell signal trigger, we would have like to see the Nasdaq to test the 4/2 high at the 2080 level on lighter volume and then close below that high. However, the 4/2 high was never touched and no signal triggered. For now we remain flat.

GOLD Market: It appears a "Three Gap Play" was performed on the XAU to the downside with the third gap (Exhaustion Gap) showing up on April 14. The Exhaustion Gap low of April 14 also test the previous low set back in January 29 with volume shrinking about 17% and a bullish sign. However, the April 14 low of 93.12 did not touch the January 29 low of 92.78. We have noticed in the past about the XAU in that re-test does not always touch the previous low to have a valid re-test. Therefore if the 92.78 is not touched, the 17% shrinkage in volume will still imply a bullish sign. Time cycles for low come in late April and we are interring into this time frame now. The next impulse wave up should start in the Next couple of weeks or so.

We added CBJ (3/31/04) at 3.13. Long NXG (3/22/04) at 2.53 and (4/14/04) at 2.09 for average 2.26. Long BGO at 3.75 and (4/14/04) at 2.97 for average at 3.36. The bigger picture has an upside target near 6.00. Long GSS 1/2 position at 6.40 on 3/18. Long (4/7/04) PMU at 1.19 and (4/14/04) at 1.05 for average 1.12.

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The McClellan Oscillator closed at -144. This indicator has turned down the Summation index. On 4/14 the summation stood at -254. Readings this low predict a bounce and we may be seeing the affects of the bounce now.

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The “Percent Volume” Indicator closed today at .41 and in neutral territory.

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“Five day ARMS” indicator is at 5.34. This indicator is neutral.

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Conclusion: Short the SPX on 4/6/04 at 1148.17.Longer Term Trend: Neutral.