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#51 diogenes227

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Posted 14 April 2010 - 03:41 PM

Assuming Stockcharts confirms the 14 point downturn in the NYSI I have in Trade Station, this is another whipsaw as NYSI gives a sell signal and the NYMO puts in a high below a high. Thanks to 3x ETFs this was a small winner -- TNA up about 1.7 percent on this two-day NYSI buy.

Sure would like to see some downside follow-through to relieve the tension on the tape (as Ed Hart used to say), but everything I have intraday says we're going higher. Extremely tough trading market. :huh:

Yup, higher.

NYSI buy again today. If this three-week flat whipsaw on the NYSI is a ledge, this trudge higher could end very badly...and suddenly. Long with a tight, tight stop and a clothespin on my nose. :juggle:

Edited by diogenes227, 14 April 2010 - 03:42 PM.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#52 diogenes227

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Posted 18 April 2010 - 06:50 PM

Finally a decent sell-off. Or so it appears. The NYSI whipsawed again into a SELL signal Friday (see TNA chart above). TNA lost 2.9 percent on the two-day whip. That loss was the worst case scenario for TNA on this swing. A tight, tight stop was warranted here given the chop chop in the NYMO, and dead sideways move in the NYSI. For instance the NYMO being down on Thursday with the RVX up was a clue to Friday's sell-off. That was one possible stop. Never hurts to get defensive. Given the NYMO being down and the RVX up, a defensive stop intraday Friday would have been when TNA gapped down, fell, bounced back to its open and turn down again with volume (see chart below). It would have taken some nimble experience with these tools to execute that one. Now if we can get some downside follow-through to get the market oversold and maybe scare the hell out of every bull for at least for a moment (and maybe longer), the bears might make some money here and the bulls might get the refresh and set up needed to go higher on the summer rally. The length of that sideways move on the NYSI was rather unusual -- one wonders if it might turn out to be the roof the bears have been dying to see on what they generally believe to be a larger-picture bear market rally since March of last year. Time will tell. For now, it's been a tough market to get to go down, so to my way of thinking a short here would warrant as tight a stop on the upside as the last long warranted to the downside. Good trading to everyone. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#53 diogenes227

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Posted 22 April 2010 - 04:32 PM

HO-HUM... The bull moves on, hardly slowing to use the rest stop...NYSI buy signal today.

However, a couple of cautionary notes -- there is no low above a low in the NYMO and the VIX was up a bit today. Once again, the bull move makes it hard to bet the farm and put the wife out on the street to raise margin.

Tight stops, I do believe, until they take down the caution signs. :)

http://stockcharts.c...1656&r=5117.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#54 diogenes227

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Posted 27 April 2010 - 12:03 PM

History repeats:

On the left side of this chart is the stop from five days ago (also above), and there it is again today. Knowing there's a high below a high on the NYMO and no low above a low caution is in order (see last post above) -- tight stops. Like five days ago, gap down, rally up on low volume, drops through the high of the first bar (like today) or the open again on a higher volume bar than the bar before, and with the NYSI negative in real time... Take some or all off the table on the stop.

That's the difference today between a 1.5 percent gain in TNA and...at the moment...a 2.5 percent loss on this swing. Defense.

Or just wait to the end of the day and not worry about it. There's plenty of time to make plenty of money in McClellan land.

Good trading to everyone. :sweatingbullets:

http://stockcharts.c...5692&r=6741.png

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#55 diogenes227

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Posted 27 April 2010 - 04:35 PM

Needless to say, NYSI gave a sell today. No surprise there. It's been about eleven trading weeks since the February lows, and NYMO cycles usually run about ten to fourteen weeks with the momentum low often coming on the nose in the twelfth week. And both the NYMO and the NYSI have been giving plenty of warnings this day would come. Those red circles on NYMO and that flat line on the NYSI have been sitting on the chart in post #53 for a long time. TNA lost 5 percent on the close on this NYSI swing. Defensive stops are always good (see previous posts on stops for the last two NYSI bounces), but especially when the indicators are screaming warning signs. What do we want to see now in the context of the overall bull market? Once again, we want to see a low above a low on the NYMO, preferably with a price divergence, followed by a crossing of the zero line to turn up the NYSI. I, for one, would like to see at least another two or three weeks to the downside (some real fear wouldn't hurt, trading-wise) to really set up the next blast to the upside. However, just take the signals -- given the way this market's been acting and given that today's drop appears to be a classic bull-market translation, it wouldn't surprise me if that blast showed up TOMORROW. :bowtie: In the meantime, it's be short or be flat -- try some leveraged short ETFs and like TZA or TWM, BGZ, FAZ, etc. -- sell the bounces, buy puts, sell calls, whatever one's individual trading style. The bears have the ball. Let's see how far they can run with it.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#56 mss

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Posted 27 April 2010 - 06:42 PM

:rolleyes: SPX 1170-75 based on chart i posted on TT
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#57 diogenes227

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Posted 29 April 2010 - 01:43 AM

What do we want to see now in the context of the overall bull market? Once again, we want to see a low above a low on the NYMO, preferably with a price divergence, followed by a crossing of the zero line to turn up the NYSI.


Got the low above the low on the NYMO (see NYSI chart above), which is a buy for an aggressive trader... Hard to believe two days after the high... If it holds and is followed by the NYSI buy, we could be off to another rally that could boggle the minds of most of the bulls and all of the bears...

:unsure:

Edited by diogenes227, 29 April 2010 - 01:44 AM.

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#58 inamosa

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Posted 29 April 2010 - 04:59 AM

I hope not...looking for a bit more downside before a possibly buy setup. But, you're right, if we take off from here, it will have a lot of jaws dropping.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#59 diogenes227

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Posted 29 April 2010 - 05:47 PM

I hope not...looking for a bit more downside before a possibly buy setup.

But, you're right, if we take off from here, it will have a lot of jaws dropping.


Annoying data problem. I have the NYSI up .09 points (that's point zero nine) in Trade Station, Stockcharts has it down slightly more than a point. Let take a little look at the NASI -- I have it up 23 points, Stockcharts up 4 points. Hmm, for want of a single point on the NYMO, we would have the second part of what we're looking for (a NYSI buy signal), at least for the moment.. What to do? What to do?

Okay, I'm going to call this a NYSI buy since I calculate everything in Trade Station and yesterday was definitely a clear aggressive bull-market buy on the NYMO low above a low...

Still, I gotta admit, today's upside blast dropped my jaw a bit --

:blush:

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."


#60 diogenes227

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Posted 30 April 2010 - 06:44 PM

Yesterday: "Annoying data problem. I have the NYSI up .09 points (that's point zero nine) in Trade Station, Stockcharts has it down slightly more than a point. Let take a little look at the NASI -- I have it up 23 points, Stockcharts up 4 points. Hmm, for want of a single point on the NYMO, we would have the second part of what we're looking for (a NYSI buy signal), at least for the moment.. What to do? What to do?" Today: Turns out that one point mattered a lot. What a difference a day makes... :swoon: If one played golf today and came back to check the market at the close, the loss in TNA on this NYSI data glitch/whipsaw was eight percent. If one sticks around when there's a trade on (and what swing trader doesn't?) and uses defensive stops (see updated chart above in post #54), the loss was a bit more than one percent. What's the moral of this story? Always play defense. Or as the old saying goes: "When in doubt, stay out." Have a good weekend. :)

"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."