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Advance Decline Line Failure


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#21 fib_1618

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 07:13 PM

Even though I'm not wavering in my this is all Fed-driven BS stance

Do you know of a time in the last 70 years where we've seen an intermediate term stock market rally (of 6 months of more) that wasn't driven by the Federal Reserve Bank, at least initially?

Fib

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#22 porsche911sg

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 07:38 PM

You mean the images you posted with Nikkie a couple of days ago? I'll pull it out and take a look again.

But what you said about computer charting actually shocked me. I thought machines were able to detect more diminutive movements than humans. Very interesting! :)


Porsche I am shocked too, A nice 5 MIN chart or 1 MIN if you like would help you a lot.....You are a great trader regardless!!!

GS.

GS,

I spend most of my time drawing not trading. I usuallly measure the gradients along the way, draw out the best match chart so that I could see what's ahead for two weeks, The problem is I need to extrapolate the graphs it's different to do in on the computer, If need I will print out te charts and do it by hand. The USUAL straight lines that are draw can be a mix of straights and curves when draw by hand that gives me the flexibility.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#23 SuperSwing

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 09:38 PM

Ever wanna invent some program to do it? I mean, hand drawing on a computer is not that hard nowadays. And my gut's telling me it's gonna be big once you sell it. :D You'll be super rich with chics and porches.



You mean the images you posted with Nikkie a couple of days ago? I'll pull it out and take a look again.

But what you said about computer charting actually shocked me. I thought machines were able to detect more diminutive movements than humans. Very interesting! :)


Porsche I am shocked too, A nice 5 MIN chart or 1 MIN if you like would help you a lot.....You are a great trader regardless!!!

GS.

GS,

I spend most of my time drawing not trading. I usuallly measure the gradients along the way, draw out the best match chart so that I could see what's ahead for two weeks, The problem is I need to extrapolate the graphs it's different to do in on the computer, If need I will print out te charts and do it by hand. The USUAL straight lines that are draw can be a mix of straights and curves when draw by hand that gives me the flexibility.


Patience is a virtue. Wait for your opportunity and pounce.

#24 porsche911sg

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 10:19 PM

Ever wanna invent some program to do it? I mean, hand drawing on a computer is not that hard nowadays. And my gut's telling me it's gonna be big once you sell it. :D You'll be super rich with chics and porches.


I never thought of inventing my programme. my method comprises with measuring gradients...Currently happy with my cars,... had two 911 sold one them.

But i am a full time trader and happy just to trade.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#25 maineman

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 10:21 PM

I trade what I see and keep it simple, i.e. important MAs, breadth, tick, trin essentially. RSI can help, but it can also fool. But, at the risk of putting my big foot in my even bigger mouth, here goes: A year ago we were on the cusp of an enormous collapse. We are in the early days of a new world/economy. I doubt any of us know where this is all heading. "Globalizaion" like in the late 80s (collapse of the Berlin Wall, rise of China/India) etc. is not evident right now. Technology (the computing and Internet age) are not apparent. Etc. What will take us into a fresh era of growth? I have no idea and see no one speaking logically in the few business mags and journals I peruse. Meanwhile, momentum is a powerful thing. There is still tremendous momentum from the bull market of the 1990s and mid 2000s. Most of us have no idea if or how the world is changing aroud us, but it probably is. Meanwhile, the capital markets have been handed a ton of cash in order to stabilize, so you can't be too surprised by the upward market trend. The AD "failure" might be due to the fact that institutions have 2 options: sell stocks to post/take gains or hedge and sell some stuff. If we were in a "normal" situation, AD would be declining and prices would come tumbling soon after. But we may not be in a "normal" situation. Hence the "high level consolidation. From here I would not be surprised to see the market soar even higher for awhile. IF (big if) economic recovery occurs, and IF some new paradigm arises, the party might continue. But if we are only in a liquidity driven reflation with nothing down the road to catch the spark, this will ultimately end unpleasantly. PLEASE understand I have no idea what I'm talking about, FWIW. Here's something that might be helpful. How about a look at the AD lines in recovering markets, like the late 1970s, or the late 1930s? That could be interesting.... mm
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#26 fib_1618

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 10:31 PM

Ever wanna invent some program to do it? I mean, hand drawing on a computer is not that hard nowadays. And my gut's telling me it's gonna be big once you sell it.

Nothing is more intimate, nor advantageous to the trader, than to chart the market by hand...day in, day out. And although software programs are created by humans, with all of our frailties, there is absolutely nothing that can be created that can calculate or anticipate the one thing that challenges us every single day with the markets themselves...the subjective response of emotion.

How about a look at the AD lines in recovering markets, like the late 1970s, or the late 1930s?

Long story short...they pretty much went sideways representing the economic inadequacies of those time periods.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#27 porsche911sg

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 10:56 PM

Ever wanna invent some program to do it? I mean, hand drawing on a computer is not that hard nowadays. And my gut's telling me it's gonna be big once you sell it.

Nothing is more intimate, nor advantageous to the trader, than to chart the market by hand...day in, day out. And although software programs are created by humans, with all of our frailties, there is absolutely nothing that can be created that can calculate or anticipate the one thing that challenges us every single day with the markets themselves...the subjective response of emotion.

How about a look at the AD lines in recovering markets, like the late 1970s, or the late 1930s?

Long story short...they pretty much went sideways representing the economic inadequacies of those time periods.

Fib

Fib, that's right the challenge of emotions, break the rules you lose. No programme nothing is perfect. I am not perfect as well. Nobody is. It's just how much those mistakes cost.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#28 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 15 November 2009 - 11:05 PM

Even though I'm not wavering in my this is all Fed-driven BS stance...the OEX p/c is not as high as I'd like to see it. In this type of market...if you can call it a market...it takes around two days in a row of that ratio around 2.0 or just below. In weaker markets the market might roll over on a single day closing oex p/c of around 1.5. If I were to be flexible I'd want to see at least one high oex p/c day...like 1.8 or 1.9.


Entre:
I agree with you here. Last few 2 days OEX p/c has not been high. I would like that, but I have enough other indicators like low NYSE volume compared to NASDAQ volume that shows an impending top... I are overbought so we usually sell off a bit... Of course price can still rise slowly while the overbought nature of the market becomes Neutral..

At this point I don't see a reason to sell my shorts ( SDS ). But I'm still green in my trade so far....

Barry

#29 dasein

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Posted 16 November 2009 - 10:18 AM

entre and barry, i think options is key to this market - i have been looking at ratios but i havent had historical volume - i think i need that to better understand it - i believe most of the trading is the big 5 with various setups to make money, differently than previously -so, point 1, the money is mostly coming from options trading cause the leverage, the institutional options positions taken to complement their cash and futures strat, so i think we need to separate out this volume vs the usual options trading we are used to. In the ISEE as I have mentioned here - they get it right so very often for the VST moves - I believe this is a function of 1 above. PS Yuri used to follow this very well, and Fari, i believe also - wish they would comment more often.

Edited by dasein, 16 November 2009 - 10:19 AM.

best,
klh