33 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Nope. SPX 1102 was my stop which i posted on friday and got taken out today. With 85% adv 15% decl, i am standing aside. If the rally holds till EOD then it's back to buy the dips mode again. We need a failure here to get short again. Fading strength is not my style.

I can't imagine that all those divergences you mentioned over the weekend will actually clear themselves up. In that case, how are you going to buy any dip?

IT

Did i say the divergences are going to clear up ?

[qqqqtrdr]

Looking at the intraday charts for clues for continuation higher or topping, but found none... OEX Put/Call ration is between 1.0 and 1.5 which is Neutral NYSE TRIN is low which it should be after the being higher the first hour, but not low enough to call a top CBOE Put/Call is neutral $NATV:$NYTV appears to be bearish, but it is too early to tell... Volume on both QQQQ and SPY have mildly decreased from Friday. Bollinger Bands are hitting the top of their channels.... We often start to flare if we go higher now which means we could start a new rally. This signifies and inflection point... Barry

[Cirrus]

There are a few truly outstanding traders here (they know who they are) who have been fairly consistantly wrong for many weeks cause they are missing the context or the big picture. I've seen many TA observations made that have demonstrated a bearish bias....when identical conditions were present supporting a bullish case the conditions were ignored or discarded whereas when a bearish case is supported they are quickly observed. The context is 'cyclical bull market'...period. I don't want to be bullish cause I think the economy and prospects for the US are terrible. It doesn't matter. This thing is going up and the global economy isn't that bad. This is an F-4 market and economy...... The F-4 was ugly and 'shouldn't have been able to fly'. All they did was attach an insane amount of thrust to the thing and off she went into the wild blue yonder. Think of the economy and market like the F-4 and liquidity and low rates like thrust. I think it's that simple...until it isn't.

Edited by Cirrus, 16 November 2009 - 10:54 AM.

[espresso]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

[SuperSwing]

Porche, I just want to say good luck to you. I'm short but only with 10%. More like testing the waters.

SS

If I am wrong think i have to be be prepared for a lost. of 30% of the contract value.

[IndexTrader]

Nope. SPX 1102 was my stop which i posted on friday and got taken out today. With 85% adv 15% decl, i am standing aside. If the rally holds till EOD then it's back to buy the dips mode again. We need a failure here to get short again. Fading strength is not my style.

I can't imagine that all those divergences you mentioned over the weekend will actually clear themselves up. In that case, how are you going to buy any dip?

IT

Did i say the divergences are going to clear up ?

So then the question becomes how are you going to buy a dip? The price structure will have weakened (the dip) and the divergences will still be there.

IT

[hitoya]

That is what I see too, but wrong for many months. The price is always right at the end.

There are a few truly outstanding traders here (they know who they are) who have been fairly consistantly wrong for many weeks cause they are missing the context or the big picture. I've seen many TA observations made that have demonstrated a bearish bias....when identical conditions were present supporting a bullish case the conditions were ignored or discarded whereas when a bearish case is supported they are quickly observed.

The context is 'cyclical bull market'...period.

I don't want to be bullish cause I think the economy and prospects for the US are terrible. It doesn't matter. This thing is going up and the global economy isn't that bad. This is an F-4 market and economy......

The F-4 was ugly and 'shouldn't have been able to fly'. All they did was attach an insane amount of thrust to the thing and off she went into the wild blue yonder. Think of the economy and market like the F-4 and liquidity and low rates like thrust. I think it's that simple...until it isn't.

[porsche911sg]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

Espresso, it's good habit to limit your losses, So far I haven been able to limit my losses. I've gotta be right on the trade! I am down by about 10% but I accept it.

If the stops are too close I always end up lossing. But most of my trades have tight stops. If I think I am right I just let it run. But the gains are mostly 50% percent of the contract value every month. this one would have to be my biggest lost for this year so i am preparing for 30-50% lost on this one if it goes wrong.

[NAV]

Nope. SPX 1102 was my stop which i posted on friday and got taken out today. With 85% adv 15% decl, i am standing aside. If the rally holds till EOD then it's back to buy the dips mode again. We need a failure here to get short again. Fading strength is not my style.

I can't imagine that all those divergences you mentioned over the weekend will actually clear themselves up. In that case, how are you going to buy any dip?

IT

Did i say the divergences are going to clear up ?

So then the question becomes how are you going to buy a dip? The price structure will have weakened (the dip) and the divergences will still be there.

IT

Trades have got nothing to do with divergences. The are warning signs. The warning signs will remain and the divergences might actually accentuate. Trades are based on momentum buy/sells on my system. Have you ever seen a single post from me saying "I am shorting the divergences" ?

It's too early to debate this anyway. Let's wait till EOD.

Edited by NAV, 16 November 2009 - 11:13 AM.

[espresso]

Hi ,
third 1/4 short here at 1810 ndx, previously 1787 and 1800.
Still on pattern, now needs to fail....

Hello Espresso, looks like we are the only ones. I added today 60% short position... well I am now down by $15k USD. I might lose another 15K by tom... I'll stop if get to 50K loses.

Yes the only ones!
I've been reading some underground rumours this weekend of how the elite is bond to push the market up for next 2 years with $ slowly but surely collapsing!
I don't believe them yet, this is last chance for my spesi.
About trading, I try to do my best to don't bet more then 2% of my capital on a single bet, 5% for an IT bet. Unfortunately sometimes I don't respect it, I'm losing 5% so far on this.

Espresso, it's good habit to limit your losses, So far I haven been able to limit my losses. I've gotta be right on the trade! I am down by about 10% but I accept it.

If the stops are too close I always end up lossing. But most of my trades have tight stops. If I think I am right I just let it run. But the gains are mostly 50% percent of the contract value every month. this one would have to be my biggest lost for this year so i am preparing for 30-50% lost on this one if it goes wrong.

The Nikkey thing, I understand you and wish good luck for both of us.
I have a clear IT spesi on Dow, a clear IT spesi on Ndx 24h. Then if happens what I stated before (weekly key, followed by Christmas retest and possibly slightly new Highs) shall get clear IT spesi on Gold and $.