32 replies to this topic

[arbman]

The complexity is not the problem, the problem is how you chop out what matters and what doesn't. I process some 8000 variables, then at the top of the dependencies, it ends with maybe 20-30 main variables that really matter, the rest of them effects maybe a few cents on the dollar. How do you determine what matters though? You can only make your best educated guess and estimate your error... It must be clear to everybody though that it is not your superstitious, gut-feeling or incomplete system that will make you the money, it is the system that can separate out the truth from the BS...

Edited by arbman, 16 November 2009 - 01:57 PM.

[tommyt]

hourly hasn't turned yet.

[Rich]

How do you determine what matters though?

That is the question. The choice of indicators is intimately tied to the functions that use them. The search algorithm must consider both at the same time. The space of possibilities is enormous. I use an evolutionary algorithm for this search with a fitness function that measures profitability. A parsimony term reduces the chance of overfitting.

[arbman]

How do you determine what matters though?

That is the question. The choice of indicators is intimately tied to the functions that use them. The search algorithm must consider both at the same time. The space of possibilities is enormous. I use an evolutionary algorithm for this search with a fitness function that measures profitability. A parsimony term reduces the chance of overfitting.

Exactly, this is your best educated guess, everyone has their method, the idea at the end comes down to whether you can tell how much you may be wrong and if you are not within a margin of error, you must be missing some variables. The best trends are made when everything ties to as much as 3-4 variables, then you know immediately when it changes, lately it has been the USD, very easy market in that sense...

[eminimee]

IF it happens ....any gap down tomorrow leaves an island..If it were to occur...with technicals the way they are...I wouldn't expect the gap to be filled anytime soon...

[thespookyone]

..then we should be within a whisker of a good top....if not...every superdooper technical indicator that I've developed over more than the past decade is CRAP! Yes...divergence is divergence until it isn't...but in the majority of cases....price "usually" bows to divergence...but my top three of my said "superdooper" indicators are screaming sell as of 5 minutes ago..
I've got my eye glued to that OEX topping range mentioned earlier...ideally would like to see a quick pop over 520 and reverse...but anywhere between 516/520 could do it..

I've got 1119.90 ES (December) for a target-I hope I see it today.

[arbman]

I expect a consolidation and a last attempt to the highs next week... then it will be very screwy for bulls... Either way either we hit 1120s this week or next week, it will be a misery...

[eminimee]

There's TA and there's TA. (wow, brilliant!).

On trend days the trend is your friend. When that comes in with overwhelming breadth and good buying from the options boys you gotta let it flow.

On the daily charts a close over 1100 would signal a significant event. If 1100 holds on any pullback, assuming we don't go parabolic, that would also be significant.

Never forget (not just you eminimiminme) that oscillators in particular can only go from 0 to 100 and can get stuck at either end while price dances all over the place.

mm

Oscillators are [bleeeep]...PLUS..they ain't "superdooper"...ya think I've built three indicators based on oscillation after 10 years???...

Edited by eminimee, 16 November 2009 - 03:48 PM.

[maineman]

Nope, but I know others read these threads, so I'm always looking for a "teachable" moment. Just who I am. If I can help someone learn what not to use before they loose their trading stash, its my good deed for the day. Just like "divergence"... seems to be a lot of chatter about this. Things may appear to diverge for a loooooooong time; also a dangerous indicator. mm

[mini-trader]

Nope, but I know others read these threads, so I'm always looking for a "teachable" moment. Just who I am. If I can help someone learn what not to use before they loose their trading stash, its my good deed for the day.

Just like "divergence"... seems to be a lot of chatter about this. Things may appear to diverge for a loooooooong time; also a dangerous indicator.

mm

Exactly...divergence creates compression and compression causes huge moves to take place...IN EITHER DIRECTION.