34 replies to this topic

[Squiggy]

60% short avg. 1175 just now I think 10+- upside to 132 downside for odds here.

What happened last night was major in my opinion. It changes things significantly.

GS.

I like your 2nd scenario best. I wonder what you think of the dollar's sudden and unexpected rise in November of 2007 that broke the gold rally then. Could the same happen now? $USD is outside its lower Bollinger Band as of this morning and $GOLD should be popping outside its upper Bollinger Band today. Only something like a 2.5% chance a market will stay outside the BB before snapping back inside and potientally moving in the opposite direction. BTW I believe the 2007 dollar action was caused by a news report. It was not caused by any Fed rate action.

http://www.bloomberg...id=a0Droxt1g__E

[goldswinger]

60% short avg. 1175 just now I think 10+- upside to 132 downside for odds here.

What happened last night was major in my opinion. It changes things significantly.

GS.

I like your 2nd scenario best. I wonder what you think of the dollar's sudden and unexpected rise in November of 2007 that broke the gold rally then. Could the same happen now? $USD is outside its lower Bollinger Band as of this morning and $GOLD should be popping outside its upper Bollinger Band today. Only something like a 2.5% chance a market will stay outside the BB before snapping back inside and potientally moving in the opposite direction. BTW I believe the 2007 dollar action was caused by a news report. It was not caused by any Fed rate action.

http://www.bloomberg...id=a0Droxt1g__E

I now tend to agree with you on the second option. That means though that the short term does not change that much, a major multimonth wave 4 is about to start, that will make Z trade successful if he does not get taken out or re-enters at 1200 on the short side.......

What happened in 2007, could happen again of course, that would be my first scenario, that we are ending a 5th of a 5th wave down on the $USD. Scenario 2 is we are just finishing a 3rd of 3rd wave just as gold is finishing a third of third as well.

Eiher way, the medium term (a few months) outlook is down once this acrobatics diving on the dollar completes.

GS.

[zoropb]

60% short avg. 1175 just now I think 10+- upside to 132 downside for odds here.

Zoopb, based on what happened to the dollar overnight , it changes things quite a bit.

First, it looks like either we are extending a 5th wave, which means , we need at least one bounce and that would imply GOLD willl go to at least $1200.

Second ,if we are still working on a major third wave, then we need one major multimonth wave 4 to 78 -81 that will likely see GOLD correct to 1050 and the SPX to 900+, and then when the buck plunges to 71-72, GOLD will move to $1300+ and the SPX to $1200.

What happened last night was major in my opinion. It changes things significantly.

GS.

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

[IndexTrader]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 25 November 2009 - 10:32 AM.

[dasein]

from futuresource: "Carefully watch December Gold's first notice day on November 30th (Monday) to find out how many investors are looking to take delivery of the gold contract. More deliveries than anticipated can send the GOLD up to its next target of $1,190."

[IndexTrader]

from futuresource:

"Carefully watch December Gold's first notice day on November 30th (Monday) to find out how many investors are looking to take delivery of the gold contract. More deliveries than anticipated can send the GOLD up to its next target of $1,190."

Actually first notice day is Friday.

http://www.cmegroup....ar_futures.html

But this is why I asked Z which contract he is trading. The February contract has traded as high as 1184.70. Alot of rumors around about a short squeeze centering around this December contract.

IT

[zoropb]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

[IndexTrader]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

I have no doubt that you're coining money trading gold. Scalping seems to be your strength. But call me crazy, if I was shorting at 1148, 1163, 1170, and 1175, sooner or later I'd start to believe that maybe there was a trend or something. That said, I think you'll be frustrated regarding your target of "$132 lower" for now.

Meanwhile, you trading Dec or Feb?

IT

[IndexTrader]

from futuresource:

"Carefully watch December Gold's first notice day on November 30th (Monday) to find out how many investors are looking to take delivery of the gold contract. More deliveries than anticipated can send the GOLD up to its next target of $1,190."

By the way, here are dharma's comments on this over on the gold board:

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=494667

[mini-trader]

60% short avg. 1175 just now I think 10+- upside to 132 downside for odds here.

Perfect 100% extention off 11/12 low - 11/18 high - 11/19 low is 1183 DEAD ON THE HIGH
and the bigger picture
100% extention off 10/24/08 low - 2/20/09 high - 4/28/09 low is 1176
It does a lot of 100% extentions.

Edited by mini-trader, 25 November 2009 - 11:13 AM.