34 replies to this topic

[zoropb]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

I have no doubt that you're coining money trading gold. Scalping seems to be your strength. But call me crazy, if I was shorting at 1148, 1163, 1170, and 1175, sooner or later I'd start to believe that maybe there was a trend or something. That said, I think you'll be frustrated regarding your target of "$132 lower" for now.

Meanwhile, you trading Dec or Feb?

IT

Dec but switching to Feb probably today.

No not really frustrated IT as long as I make money I can be wrong. Of course it is a trend duh bud been one since we took out 1007 for next pop. I think this entire move will go well into the 1200 close to even 1300 before a massive drop back to 750 happens. So I agree 100% just not interested in gold to long side from 1050 up. That is where odds change for me in IT time. 150 up 300 down in my stuff is not exactly good. After we get a huge correction to 750 area I can see us going well up maybe past $2000+ who knows.

correction meant 250 up 300 down

Edited by zoropb, 25 November 2009 - 11:25 AM.

[IndexTrader]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

I have no doubt that you're coining money trading gold. Scalping seems to be your strength. But call me crazy, if I was shorting at 1148, 1163, 1170, and 1175, sooner or later I'd start to believe that maybe there was a trend or something. That said, I think you'll be frustrated regarding your target of "$132 lower" for now.

Meanwhile, you trading Dec or Feb?

IT

Dec but switching to Feb probably today.

No not really frustrated IT as long as I make money I can be wrong. Of course it is a trend duh bud been one since we took out 1007 for next pop. I think this entire move will go well into the 1200 close to even 1300 before a massive drop back to 750 happens. So I agree 100% just not interested in gold to long side from 1050 up. That is where odds change for me in IT time. 150 up 300 down in my stuff is not exactly good. After we get a huge correction to 750 area I can see us going well up maybe past $2000+ who knows.

correction meant 250 up 300 down

Just thought I'd point out that this "250 up 300 down" is an arbitrary set of hypothetical numbers. Right now I don't think the risk is $300. And frankly, even if I did, I don't trade with a $300 stop. So right now, I think the trend is up, there is no top right now on virtually any time frame. And, there is no resistance above our current price. What's going to happen here is that the market is going to seek a high, whether it is here or whether it is 1200 or 1300 or whatever, and then it will consolidate/correct. Whether that includes a $130 drop remains to be seen. To use another set of numbers, I'd say risk might be to $1050 or thereabouts, while the upside is open for now. I don't like those type of odds when I'm shorting.

IT

[dharma]

ahhh a lively discussion the cot is the short. and they will get overrun , as they did last time, and then @some point they changed the rules. will this time be different? i think so, the gold move imho is not do to inflation or deflation although it is a contributing factor . the move is loss of confidence in the dollar. and the momo will continue, and so will the dollar's demise. i am a technician and i am aware of fundamentals. the inverse h&s is projecting to 1300 in even #rd years in this bull tops have occurred and their occurrence has happened feb-april and then a larger correction- i dont think this one will last 18 months. gold is getting support from nations India plans to buy more gold from IMF By Mandakini Raina Nov 24 2009 , New Delhi India is open to buying more gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It bought 200 tonnes for $6.7 billion on November 3. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may well buy IMF's remaining hoard of 201.3 tonnes on acceptable terms, which are now under negotiation. A government official said that the additional purchase would depend on the "successful pitching by RBI". "RBI is an independent body, and the government does not interfere in its affairs. It will get the gold if its bid is successful and at the price it has offered," said the official. RBI did not respond to Financial Chronicle questions if it was bidding for the remaining IMF gold. The purchase of the first lot of 200 tonnes, RBI had said at the time, was a part of its foreign exchange reserves management operations. Responding to query from FC, an IMF spokesperson said the gold sale process was still under way and "there is no fixed timetable for completing the sale". Its spokesperson further said that "the fund does not wish to comment on discussions with individual members." RBI has good reasons to further enrich its gold reserves. In just three weeks it has been able to benefit by as much as $800 million on the investment of $6.7 billion it made in buying 200 tonnes from IMF. Since 1999 RBI has been periodically valuing its gold reserves at "prices close to the market". It has not done so since it purchased the gold from IMF. 1st delivery notice is friday! so, its still buy the rumor. lets see if the 2nd part of that phrase takes place . the seasonals call for a correction after the 1st week in december and then its a powerful up move. i am looking for 1300 minimum. the money is made sticking w/the prevailing trend. and i have chosen to sit. i trade 15% of my account , which will stop when this correction bottoms this summer . this is not a religion for me, its a vehicle to make $$$ and when we are well into the parabolic . i will jettison my position. dharma

[zoropb]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

I have no doubt that you're coining money trading gold. Scalping seems to be your strength. But call me crazy, if I was shorting at 1148, 1163, 1170, and 1175, sooner or later I'd start to believe that maybe there was a trend or something. That said, I think you'll be frustrated regarding your target of "$132 lower" for now.

Meanwhile, you trading Dec or Feb?

IT

Dec but switching to Feb probably today.

No not really frustrated IT as long as I make money I can be wrong. Of course it is a trend duh bud been one since we took out 1007 for next pop. I think this entire move will go well into the 1200 close to even 1300 before a massive drop back to 750 happens. So I agree 100% just not interested in gold to long side from 1050 up. That is where odds change for me in IT time. 150 up 300 down in my stuff is not exactly good. After we get a huge correction to 750 area I can see us going well up maybe past $2000+ who knows.

correction meant 250 up 300 down

Just thought I'd point out that this "250 up 300 down" is an arbitrary set of hypothetical numbers. Right now I don't think the risk is $300. And frankly, even if I did, I don't trade with a $300 stop. So right now, I think the trend is up, there is no top right now on virtually any time frame. And, there is no resistance above our current price. What's going to happen here is that the market is going to seek a high, whether it is here or whether it is 1200 or 1300 or whatever, and then it will consolidate/correct. Whether that includes a $130 drop remains to be seen. To use another set of numbers, I'd say risk might be to $1050 or thereabouts, while the upside is open for now. I don't like those type of odds when I'm shorting.

IT

IT in the very st I think one minor high here in this hour (of which I been working got nice fills a bit ago) then the 1160 area likely. That 1160 area should be a magnet for a bit even if we go into 1200. I will work and short every rally until monthly catch up to at least 2std.
1/3 into Febs now and working into them as I go.

[zoropb]

ahhh a lively discussion
the cot is the short. and they will get overrun , as they did last time, and then @some point they changed the rules. will this time be different? i think so, the gold move imho is not do to inflation or deflation although it is a contributing factor . the move is loss of confidence in the dollar. and the momo will continue, and so will the dollar's demise.
i am a technician and i am aware of fundamentals. the inverse h&s is projecting to 1300
in even #rd years in this bull tops have occurred and their occurrence has happened feb-april and then a larger correction- i dont think this one will last 18 months.
gold is getting support from nations
India plans to buy more gold from IMF
By Mandakini Raina Nov 24 2009 , New Delhi

India is open to buying more gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It bought 200 tonnes for $6.7 billion on November 3. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may well buy IMF's remaining hoard of 201.3 tonnes on acceptable terms, which are now under negotiation.

A government official said that the additional purchase would depend on the "successful pitching by RBI". "RBI is an independent body, and the government does not interfere in its affairs. It will get the gold if its bid is successful and at the price it has offered," said the official.

RBI did not respond to Financial Chronicle questions if it was bidding for the remaining IMF gold. The purchase of the first lot of 200 tonnes, RBI had said at the time, was a part of its foreign exchange reserves management operations.

Responding to query from FC, an IMF spokesperson said the gold sale process was still under way and "there is no fixed timetable for completing the sale". Its spokesperson further said that "the fund does not wish to comment on discussions with individual members."

RBI has good reasons to further enrich its gold reserves. In just three weeks it has been able to benefit by as much as $800 million on the investment of $6.7 billion it made in buying 200 tonnes from IMF.

Since 1999 RBI has been periodically valuing its gold reserves at "prices close to the market". It has not done so since it purchased the gold from IMF.


1st delivery notice is friday! so, its still buy the rumor. lets see if the 2nd part of that phrase takes place . the seasonals call for a correction after the 1st week in december and then its a powerful up move. i am looking for 1300 minimum. the money is made sticking w/the prevailing trend. and i have chosen to sit. i trade 15% of my account , which will stop when this correction bottoms this summer . this is not a religion for me, its a vehicle to make $$$ and when we are well into the parabolic . i will jettison my position.
dharma

I agree we could see close to 1300 in several months but not now. Everyone knows India bought it and I do not see the difference from one central bank owning it and another. The product has not hit the market in general where it would effect price. The biggest influence on Gold is retail sales accounting for70%. If demand is running about 30% lower for it on a consumer basis. We got some serious speculation going on. (not that it cannot continue for a while).
So you can say I am st bearish IT bullish and a bit more bearish then bullish for a very LT

[IndexTrader]

GS I think you may be correct That is why I got to see how the pull back goes to 1175-6 but it could go to 1220's before a good correction.

Just thought I'd mention I have a longstanding target of 1.52-1.54 on the Euro.

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=491852

Hard to imagine that gold doesn't have higher prices in store if the euro does in fact reach the target.

Either way, right now I think you'll be frustrated with this $132 lower target. It is a bull market. Picking a top is a very tough business. But I do see there seem to be alot of ewave guys around with similar types of predictions.

BTW, are you trading the Dec gold future?

IT

I think Gold will likely head to mid to high 1180s area now as K. stated. Does not mean I have not been making money IT I dumped them the other day kept 25% will dump back to the 25% within an hour or so netting some more and again from next pop back here again and then big pay day. Not frustrated at all at 3 STDs on monthly I feel fine and patient and can keep doing this all day long please take it higher boys.

I have no doubt that you're coining money trading gold. Scalping seems to be your strength. But call me crazy, if I was shorting at 1148, 1163, 1170, and 1175, sooner or later I'd start to believe that maybe there was a trend or something. That said, I think you'll be frustrated regarding your target of "$132 lower" for now.

Meanwhile, you trading Dec or Feb?

IT

Dec but switching to Feb probably today.

No not really frustrated IT as long as I make money I can be wrong. Of course it is a trend duh bud been one since we took out 1007 for next pop. I think this entire move will go well into the 1200 close to even 1300 before a massive drop back to 750 happens. So I agree 100% just not interested in gold to long side from 1050 up. That is where odds change for me in IT time. 150 up 300 down in my stuff is not exactly good. After we get a huge correction to 750 area I can see us going well up maybe past $2000+ who knows.

correction meant 250 up 300 down

Just thought I'd point out that this "250 up 300 down" is an arbitrary set of hypothetical numbers. Right now I don't think the risk is $300. And frankly, even if I did, I don't trade with a $300 stop. So right now, I think the trend is up, there is no top right now on virtually any time frame. And, there is no resistance above our current price. What's going to happen here is that the market is going to seek a high, whether it is here or whether it is 1200 or 1300 or whatever, and then it will consolidate/correct. Whether that includes a $130 drop remains to be seen. To use another set of numbers, I'd say risk might be to $1050 or thereabouts, while the upside is open for now. I don't like those type of odds when I'm shorting.

IT

IT in the very st I think one minor high here in this hour (of which I been working got nice fills a bit ago) then the 1160 area likely. That 1160 area should be a magnet for a bit even if we go into 1200. I will work and short every rally until monthly catch up to at least 2std.
1/3 into Febs now and working into them as I go.

So I gather 1185 wasn't your stop. Do you have stop?

IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 25 November 2009 - 01:53 PM.

[zoropb]

IT you know better. When ya starting posting yours I will mine hows that? Oh yeah and lets not forget your time too.

[IndexTrader]

IT you know better. When ya starting posting yours I will mine hows that? Oh yeah and lets not forget your time too.

When I post a trade I post a stop. Always have. Otherwise, the trade is too much like a paper trade, lacks legitimacy. But I don't post all my trades either, nor do you I assume. When I don't post it, I don't take credit for it. Feel free though not to post a stop...your choice.

[IndexTrader]

By the way, when I post some type of forecast, generally I don't post time because the forecast has some way of ending, like a stop for instance, or the breaking of an area on the chart, etc, that I specifically mention. So I'm bullish for instance on oil. I have also given an area that would be a problem for me with that forecast. I've repeatedly made bullish posts on gold, given some targets in some of the posts. I'm also happy to post where my forecast would be terminated. Same in fact with the Euro. The difference is that when you post that gold is going to 750, you don't post where a stop is, or where the forecast would be wrong, etc. It's entirely open ended. Kinda like that stock market forecast back in 2003, that was interrupted by a 5 year bull market. Had I made that type of prediction, I would have had to change it when the market proved me wrong. And certainly, I would not have even mentioned it later if in fact it ended up taking place. And I can't think of a time when I have ever made a 5 year forecast. By the way, how about that euro? IT

Edited by IndexTrader, 25 November 2009 - 02:34 PM.

[NAV]

IT, I must say your stance on Dollar and Gold have been the right one for months. Well done!