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Hours away...

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#1 arbman



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Posted 03 December 2009 - 12:52 PM

I corrected my magnitude estimates and updated the links below...

This morning's action despite the break out attempts in RUT and NDX and the positive leadership except for the financials was encouraging for a slow roll over. But I think we will see the top in a few hours, it doesn't mean we will immediately collapse, but I think the chances are a very sharp decline is coming into January...


This is from a partner, he has very good handle on Asia... He thinks the Asians built the same bubbles in their countries in response to the mess in the Western countries. We are all going to hell in an hand basket. Dubai was the early bird, remember: the sub-prime went down first...

That guy is a goof. China created a $585billion stimulus package and spent it (unlike our $700billion package, at least 75% of which was never spent). China pumped this money into the banks and ordered them to lend like crazy, which they did. China bank lending exploded and a large part of this stimulus money went into stocks and real estate. So a Chinese company would take out a loan, telling the Chinese bank it was to build a factory. Instead, the company took that money and speculated in real estate and stocks. Citizens did the same. It got so frothy particularly in real estate that the government is trying to curtail lending to residential construction and lending to people who want to buy homes. There's far too much stock. However, I saw a survey from China that a large percentage of China middle class people want to buy a home in 2010. Whether China demand can "catch up" with the over supply, who knows?
xxx said something funny yesterday. She said "America should decouple from Wall Street". Maybe just tie alot of barges together in the port of Manhattan and float all the bankers out into the sea. Ha ha ha!

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: there is no asset bubbles in Asia
From: xxx
Date: Wed, December 02, 2009 5:59 pm
To: xxxx

Deustche Banks Asia Chief Officer advises us so...


Didn't you tell me that one of the biggest real estate bubble in Asia is in Hong Kong? If my memory serves, I remember I would have to pay millions to sleep up right in a box... LOL

#2 hiker


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Posted 04 December 2009 - 04:17 AM

Hi again, arbman ... this is the first time I have logged into this board since September I believe ... for your review,
here are a couple long chart threads I started this week with Dec 3rd chart updates at the end of each thread


the second link has very long-term charts for copper futures at the very end of this chart thread (daily and weekly charts), which may be of interest to you since you appear to be calling a price "top" for equities




you may notice in all three chart threads, my interpretation presents a still bullish potential remains in play, based on what is important to me
in reading a chart

best to you,

- hiker

Edited by hiker, 04 December 2009 - 04:19 AM.

why is it important to wear sunglasses, even on cloudy days?

UV damage to the eyes is cumulative during the lifetime

blindness from UV damage to the eyes is preventable for the current younger generations -

elvis wore shades - by the Cleveland Clinic