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Buy or Sell ?


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#1 NAV

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:05 AM

We should know by the end of the day. Right now we have a broken hourly uptrend. But that in itself is not a sell signal. Broken uptrend can heal itslef by quickly reversing and making new recovery highs. Either way when the next sell signal or continuation buy is triggered i will post here. I am more leaning towards a sell signal. We'll see... I have been doing some research (both manual and computer based) on price trends and price momentum, using price data over the last few decades. When i started the study, i was of the opinion that momentum controls price. The more i research the more i am of the opinion that price(Price trends) are more important than momentum. Price action creates momentum. Momentum, Volume and other indicators are gauges to measure the trend strength and trend reversal points. That explains why many times high momentum selloffs reverse on a dime in strongly trending markets without necessary divergences. I was using a system which was weighted more with momentum and less with price. While it's a good day trading system for hit and run trading, it misses good trending moves. Now i am in process of weigthing that system with more weight on price trends and less weigth on momentum. The results are interesting and promising. I have changed nothing in my system other than just weighting.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#2 zoropb

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:11 AM

cool see how it back test. just tried round 2 1093.50 March will unload most or all on first of today's early highs attempt
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#3 NAV

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:14 AM

cool see how it back test.

just tried round 2 1093.50 March will unload most or all on first of today's early highs attempt


Z,

I have developed about 20-25 systems in the last 10 years. Everyone of them backtest well. :D Only couple of them have performed under pressure in the field (a.k.a forward testing) ;) . This one is just a refinement of my old system, so hopefully should do well.

Edited by NAV, 17 December 2009 - 10:18 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#4 Cirrus

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:15 AM

Interesting day....gold stocks acting very poorly (GDX) but the KRE is acting well. WFC also doing fine with XLE outperforming. It's a tough call right here IMO. The 1100 +/- level seem important to me and given today's terrible breadth we can see things sell off more later. I felt like a break and ST run was all but certain yesterday and know things don't look so hot so far. Let's see what we get today from lunch time on.

#5 zoropb

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:17 AM

dumped 30% at this last pop and rest is stop at entry
I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , YM, and will put up 3 others if asked. I mainly trade es and YM. http://ztradingintro.blogspot.com/ YM targeting is closed to any new members for good. Thanks for your interest. Good trades to you.

#6 tommyt

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:22 AM

fed game says today is the trend day...so should be down good all day. Since no quad unwind took place earlier, its gotta unwind today and tomorrow's open. Could be a large gap tomorrow. IMO, most have been put to sleep by the last 5 weeks, and won't have anything for the real move. Many have been trained to trade for 2,3,4 ES points, nothing wrong with that, just a sign of whats its done to the crowd. To add, Bol Bands are pinched almost to extreme and ADX on SPY is in the 10's now = unreal.

Edited by tommyt, 17 December 2009 - 10:27 AM.


#7 Cirrus

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:25 AM

Interesting....the KRE is green right now and the #1 performing ETF on my list today. I think that merits at least some attention.

#8 spielchekr

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:25 AM

"Price action creates momentum." Truer words were never spoken (or in your case, written). That's exactly what I attempt to demonstrate over and over. A given price will render an exact momentum reading. Methodically plot some price scenarios, observe the momentum results for them, and try to identify potential obstacles and openings. That's all anyone can really do with momentum.

#9 NAV

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:29 AM

fed game says today is the trend day...so should be down good all day. Since no quad unwind took place earlier, its gotta unwind today and tomorrow's open. Could be a large gap tomorrow. IMO, most have been put to sleep by the last 5 weeks, and won't have anything for the real move. Many have been trained to trade for 2,3,4 ES points, nothing wrong with that, just a sign of whats its done to the crowd.


I have rarely seen S&P top without at least giving a retrace on the 15-min. Minimally they will reset the 15-min Osc, ideally the 30-min before they jump off the cliff. This one shoud be no different. SPX has already hit the 4-sigma band on the hourly. Expect a retrace anytime here.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#10 NAV

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 10:31 AM

"Price action creates momentum."

Truer words were never spoken (or in your case, written). That's exactly what I attempt to demonstrate over and over. A given price will render an exact momentum reading. Methodically plot some price scenarios, observe the momentum results for them, and try to identify potential obstacles and openings. That's all anyone can really do with momentum.


Precisely. You explained it better than me.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch