42 replies to this topic

[JGUITARSLIM]

Not really a big cycles guy, but here's one I've been tracking over the last year.
Been running pretty consistent. Chart indicates we may have just seen a cycle low.
If so, this would be bullish. Any thoughts from you cycle guys?

[SilentOne]

Not really a big cycles guy, but here's one I've been tracking over the last year.
Been running pretty consistent. Chart indicates we may have just seen a cycle low.
If so, this would be bullish. Any thoughts from you cycle guys?

hi JG,

I posted the chart below mid-summer. I was looking for a 14 month cycle low at year end (Dec/Jan) and I had no confidence of a breakout. But then I could see the breakout unfolding and had to change my view. The 14 month cycle +/- 1 month has been fairly useful in the last few years. Will it be the case now?

Bear in mind that gold could trade in a sideways move over a wide range in the coming year. Or the dollar falls apart and all hell breaks loose ...



So a low would work here. It would be quite bullish, particularly if the larger 9 year low arrived in Nov. 2008. Put it this way. I would not be shorting gold here now.

The other thing to watch is oil. I have been posting of late that a 45 week low was likely made on Dec. 15th. I don't know what this means for the USD.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 26 December 2009 - 05:21 PM.

[JGUITARSLIM]

Thanks for your insights John. Good trading... If this is indeed the 14mo low, it sure would be very bullish.

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 26 December 2009 - 07:12 PM.

[cappy]

Back in early nov I was looking for the 42-54 wk low or 11 to 13 month. I thought the low was in place and bought gold futures and was looking for a strong move up like that of 1979. The move came and I booked 112.00 profits. But that just proves you can be wrong and still make money. The reason I say that is because I was bending the rules I usually follow. But I could not resist because I was getting bullish weekly signals. Actually Silent One was correct. The yearly low was not in place. The rule i was breaking states a yearly low should be preceded by at least 4 weeks correction. We now have had our required four week correction. I went long some dgp at 25.80 . If that was the low it should get interesting in the next four weeks.

[JGUITARSLIM]

For the record, I never buy anything based solely on cycle analysis.
Price/volume action rules. GLD currently on bearish upthrust.
Unless things pick up to the upside. I still think we test lower.
If we do have another leg down, I have few targets...

[cappy]

Good luck.

[senorBS]

Senor is observing muy, muy closely. There are now reasons to believe a correction could have finitoed. BSing away Senor

[JGUITARSLIM]

Senor is observing muy, muy closely. There are now reasons to believe a correction could have finitoed.

BSing away

Senor

What reasons are you refering to?

[dharma]

some of you guys do excellent work sometimes harmonics shift john, silent one, you do excellent cycle work dharma

[JGUITARSLIM]

some of you guys do excellent work
sometimes harmonics shift
john, silent one, you do excellent cycle work
dharma

Dharma... What are your current thoughts cyclically?